Exposing False Predictions

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There’s an old saying that you can complain about the weather, but you can’t do anything about it.

But what if you could. What if you could contact the meteorologist directly through his/her blog and say “You know what, your predictions are always wrong about the weather; you’re full of bunk. Fix it.” Blogs are a natural for meteorologists. I wish more were blogging. That way they can respond to people who question their predictions. At least my client is doing so. Just listen to what Mark Hoekzema wrote today about some bozos who think there should be laws to regulate when movie times/weather forecasts are wrong…

I hear and read the comments all the time. “Meteorologists are never right” or “it’s the only job where you get paid when you’re wrong” and so on. I have a great response to people who lay those lines on me. I just ask them one question back. “So, when was the last time I was wrong?”

Invariably, I get a long pause, and then the answer”Well, it was a couple weeks ago when”, which is where I tune out, because my point has been proven. If it was a couple weeks ago, then that means I have had, conservatively, no less than 10 straight days with good forecasts.

So, if I was going to be docked pay for a wrong forecast, then I should expect 10 days of pay with a nice bonus attached, right? Seems only fair to me

I think Mark’s on to something. Everyone who is in the “prediction business” should be blogging. Analysts are doing so. CEOs are too. Why not fortune tellers and bookies? Blogs will soon make it very hard to hide a false prediction. Hey, that’s a prediction. I guess I won’t be able to hide that one.

Steve Rubel is a PR strategist with nearly 16 years of public relations, marketing, journalism and communications experience. He currently serves as a Senior Vice President with Edelman, the largest independent global PR firm.

He authors the Micro Persuasion weblog, which tracks how blogs and participatory journalism are changing the public relations practice.

Exposing False Predictions
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