Emmys 2011: Can Online Buzz Predict The Winners?
The 63rd Annual Primetime Emmys are Sunday, and there is already a ton of chatter across social media channels about the nominated shows and actors. In fact, there has been quite a lot of chatter since the nominations were announced back in July.
Performance marketing agency Performics recognizes this, and has developed a “Primtetime Emmy Online Comedy Index” to look at all the buzz surrounding the nominees. The theory is that social media buzz and the volume of Google searches can accurately predict who will win the awards on Sunday night.
If they are right, it looks like it’s going to be a good night for NBC comedy.
According to the social metrics, The Office should win the award for Outstanding Comedy Series and Alec Baldwin should win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for his work on 30 Rock.
The Office leads both Google searches and total tweets when it comes to the nominees. Coming in a close second in terms of Twitter buzz is Fox mega-hit Glee. After that, the other nomiees drop off quite significantly.
As far as Outstanding Actor goes, Alec Baldwin leads in searches by a significant margin over Louis C.K. and Steve Carell. I’m going to hope that this doesn’t signify the outcome, as it would be a travesty for anyone but Louis C.K. to win (just my opinion).
Here’s an infographic that shows the results of the study –
When it comes to the Outstanding Lead Actress award, Parks & Recreation‘s Amy Poehler and 30 Rock‘s Tina Fey are virtually tied for the top spot, according to Performics.
“The court of public opinion may not decide award winners, yet people continue to embrace social media and search engines in new and creative ways,” said Daina Middleton, CEO of Performics. “Fans, networks and countless others are participating with and expressing interest in their favorite nominees. We’ve put some of Performics’ analytic muscle behind the comedy categories to assess who’s hot, who’s not and who might just get the last laugh.”
Can social chatter really predict the winners? Startup Likester famously used their analyzation of Facebook likes to correctly predict most rounds of American Idol, including Scotty McCreery as the winner. But of course, American Idol picks its winner based on fan votes. The Emmys use that stuffy academy – just ask Sons of Anarchy’s Kurt Sutter how he feels about that deciding body.
Who do you think will win on Sunday night? Is that different from who you think should win? Let us know in the comments.