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Now here’s the kind of prediction that I like to hear: eMarketer’s John du Pre Gauntt says that “2007 was not ‘the year of mobile marketing’ that it was advertised to be, and 2008 won’t be either.” I don’t have anything against mobile marketing itself, I’m just tired of the hype. So a down-to-earth look at the future of mobile marketing is what I want.

eMarketer’s key points:

• Text-message–based campaigns will dominate
• Mobile marketing affects many different industries—and it affects them all differently.
• Consumers are resistant, especially to targeting based on personal information that their phone and/or provider will store.
• Most mobile users are still paying for nearly all their data services, making them even less likely to welcome advertising on their phones.

The report also addresses the possibility of advertising revenues subsidizing subscription rates. This seems like the solution to a lot of problems: the mobile companies still get paid, customers get low enough rates to afford data services and advertisers get their creative seen.

On the other hand, advertisers might desire better targeting, customers are opposed to receiving more advertising and mobile companies would probably prefer to continue to charge both advertisers and customers at current rates. The eMarketer report realistically concludes that “Before mobile marketing can truly get moving, many obstacles will have to be overcome.”

Amen.

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