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At any given point in time, it's reasonable to expect that some new iPhones will be on stores' shelves.  Others may be getting driven to buyers' houses, and still more may be just sitting there after the final transaction takes places.  But 1.4 million seems too high a number to signal good things for Apple.

Still, when Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi compared the number of iPhones sold by Apple to the number activated by AT&T, he found that 1.4 million aren't accounted for.  Some of those will probably never be activated - blame (or thank) the unlocking trend for that - but 1.4 million is a lot.

As a result, Sacconaghi wrote, "This is negative in two ways: (1) it indicates end-user demand for iPhone is lower than many investors may think based on Apple's sales figure; and (2) it points to slower iPhone sales in the current quarter, since much of this inventory is likely to be drawn down."

Apple's stock is down $1.75 so far today, and $44.93 since its opening value on the first day of Macworld.  Given the market's behavior lately, we're not going to attribute either of these things to any specific cause.  Yet, even though Philip Elmer-DeWitt quotes several more optimistic analysts, Sacconaghi's discovery isn't likely to help matters, and it could tarnish the image of the iPhone by a bit.