El Nino Report Released By Climate Prediction Center


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The peak of the 2015-2016 El Nino is closing in according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and this is one of the strongest on record (dating back to 1950).

According to a report from the administration's Climate Prediction Center, there is about a 95% chance that El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

The report begins:

During September, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were well above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niño indices generally increased, although the far western Niño-4 index was nearly unchanged (Fig. 2). Also, relative to last month, the strength of the positive subsurface temperature anomalies decreased slightly in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 3), but the largest departures remained above 6°C (Fig. 4). The atmosphere was well coupled with the ocean, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to the east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values became more negative (stronger), consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.
All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0°C. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

You can read the whole document here.

The report says across the U.S., temperatures and precipitation impacts from El Nino are likely to be seen during the coming months with below average temperatures and above average median precipitation across the southern tier of the country and vice versa for the northern tier.