Tesla Inc.’s stock has been on a rollercoaster ride in 2025, with investors closely watching the electric-vehicle giant’s pivot toward artificial intelligence and autonomous driving technologies. Amid fluctuating market sentiments, Wolfe Research has emerged as a key voice, reiterating its “Peerperform” rating on Tesla shares while highlighting an evolving narrative around the company’s AI and autonomy efforts. In a recent note, the firm pointed to upcoming milestones in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, robotaxi deployments, and the Optimus humanoid robot as potential catalysts that could reshape investor perceptions, even as near-term financial pressures loom.

The analysis comes at a pivotal time, following Tesla’s second-quarter earnings report, which showed revenue of $22.5 billion but also revealed challenges in free cash flow and elevated estimates for 2025 and 2026. Wolfe analysts cautioned that Street expectations might be overly optimistic, predicting continued pressure on cash flows unless the energy business scales up significantly. Yet, they expressed optimism about Tesla’s ability to capitalize on its integrated ecosystem, particularly in expanding FSD to new markets like San Francisco, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida.

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This perspective aligns with broader market analyses, as seen in reports from Investing.com, where Wolfe emphasized that Tesla’s energy segment could double revenues to around $18 billion by 2026 from $9.2 billion in 2024, driven by strong gross margins and surging demand for battery storage. The firm’s removal of a specific price target underscores a wait-and-see approach, balancing enthusiasm for long-term AI-driven growth against immediate hurdles like competitive pressures in the EV market and regulatory scrutiny on autonomous features.

Investor sentiment on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) reflects this duality, with posts highlighting predictions of 20%-30% delivery growth in 2025 and excitement over electric vehicle sales potentially rising 30% globally, as forecasted by S&P Global. One prominent analyst on X noted Tesla’s unique vision-only approach to autonomy, suggesting it could differentiate the company despite recent earnings dips, where Q2 2025 EPS fell 48% from Q2 2022 levels.

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Delving deeper, Wolfe’s report, as detailed in Yahoo Finance, describes an “improving AI/Autonomy narrative” fueled by hands-free, eyes-off FSD capabilities for owners in select U.S. regions. This builds on Tesla’s plans for robotaxi services, with conservative estimates from X users projecting 1,000 deployments in 2025, potentially generating billions in new revenue streams. However, the firm warns of a “challenging” path ahead, including risks from supply chain issues and competition from rivals like Waymo and traditional automakers ramping up their EV offerings.

Comparisons with other Wall Street views add nuance; for instance, Morgan Stanley’s projections, referenced in Investing.com‘s SWOT analysis, forecast Tesla’s EPS climbing from $1.59 in 2025 to $4.53 by 2027, contingent on successful autonomy pushes. Oppenheimer, maintaining a “Perform” rating, noted Tesla’s adjusted 2025 capital expenditure below analyst averages, signaling cautious spending amid mixed Q2 results.

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Tesla’s energy business stands out as a counterweight, with Megapack backlogs and Supercharger network expansions promising high-margin services. Posts on X underscore this, praising the segment’s role in avoiding cash burn, especially as global battery demand outpaces supply. Wolfe analysts highlight Tesla’s scale and integration as competitive edges, potentially driving energy revenues to offset any automotive slowdowns.

Looking ahead, the interplay between these factors could define Tesla’s trajectory. While FSD and robotaxi advancements offer moonshot potential—echoing earlier Wolfe predictions from 2021 of $40 EPS by 2025 tied to U.S. EV legislation—the company must navigate regulatory risks and execution challenges. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming catalysts, as Tesla’s ability to monetize AI could either validate the bulls’ optimism or expose vulnerabilities in a maturing EV market.