Bitcoin sits near $62,000 after shedding nearly half its value in eight months. ETF outflows hit records. Even Michael Saylor sold some. Yet one Motley Fool contributor declared on June 6 that he keeps buying. His reasoning? History and a simple market indicator both point the same direction.
The numbers look ugly at first glance. Bitcoin dropped 47% over the past eight months. It slid below $70,000 recently. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a 13-day outflow streak through early June, pulling more than $4.3 billion according to BeInCrypto. One brutal week alone saw $3.4 billion exit. Prediction markets give slim odds of a quick breakout above $75,000 this month, per a June 6 Yahoo Finance report.
But Dominic Basulto sees a coiled spring. “Despite all that, I’m buying Bitcoin right now,” he wrote in The Motley Fool. “I’m not expecting Bitcoin to recover immediately, but when it does — as I think it inevitably will — it’s going to be a coiled spring ready to bounce higher.”
Bitcoin Season Still Rules
One metric keeps Basulto calm. The Altcoin Season Index from CoinMarketCap sits at 51. Anything below 75 signals Bitcoin season. That means Bitcoin has outperformed most of the top 100 cryptocurrencies over the past 90 days. Recent performance bears it out. Bitcoin fell about 8%. Ethereum dropped 12%. XRP lost 14%. Solana gave up 18%.
As long as that index stays under 75, Basulto argues, investors should accumulate Bitcoin and wait for the broader market to follow. “In the crypto market, it’s still ‘Bitcoin season.’ That means it’s time to load up on Bitcoin and wait for the broader crypto market to recover.” Later, once Bitcoin ignites the next leg up, altcoin season arrives.
Bitcoin dominance hovers near 58%, according to current CoinMarketCap data. It climbed as high as 65% in mid-2025 before easing. The pattern fits past cycles where capital first floods into Bitcoin before rotating elsewhere. And right now the rotation hasn’t started.
Short-term pain dominates headlines. Outflows continue. Some analysts eye $50,000 as a possible floor, discussed in a June 4 CNBC segment. Yet the structural case builds underneath the noise.
Scarcity remains Bitcoin’s foundation. The supply cap sits at 21 million coins. Every wave of new buyers, whether retail or institutional, competes for a fixed pool. Corporate treasuries and governments now hold nearly 18% of all Bitcoin, Pantera Capital noted in its January 2026 letter. Public companies alone sit on positions worth tens of billions. That ownership base didn’t exist in prior cycles.
Institutions treat Bitcoin as portfolio ballast. Morningstar analysts highlighted in January that adding even modest Bitcoin exposure improved risk-adjusted returns across every three-year period studied when rebalanced properly. The asset’s low historical correlation with stocks still offers diversification, though that link can tighten during crises.
But. The four-year cycle dominates the conversation. Bitcoin tends to deliver two strong years, peak in the third, then collapse in the fourth. The current collapse began in October 2025 after Bitcoin touched $126,000 earlier that year. History from 2018 and 2022 shows 64% drawdowns were normal. Recovery followed.
Basulto expects more downside through 2026. “Quite likely, it will fall further still in 2026. But just wait until 2027, when Bitcoin is likely to regain its momentum and begin to bounce back higher. By the time of its next halving in April 2028, Bitcoin should be primed to hit yet another all-time high.”
Halvings cut new supply. The next one arrives in 2028. Past events preceded major rallies. Demand engines have grown more powerful this time. Spot ETFs, once novel, now manage over $90 billion even after recent withdrawals. Sovereign interest grows. Corporate adoption accelerates.
Longer-term forecasts vary but trend higher. JPMorgan analysts see a path toward $150,000 to $170,000 through 2026 and beyond, cited in a December 2025 Investing.com analysis. Bitwise Investments predicted late last year that Bitcoin would break its four-year cycle and set fresh highs while becoming less volatile than Nvidia stock. MorningStar maintained a strongly positive outlook despite expected choppiness.
Not everyone agrees. Some analysts warn 2026 could bring consolidation and further tests of lower supports. Fidelity’s recent outlook noted that if four-year cycles hold, a bottom might arrive around November 2026. Recent price action shows Bitcoin testing levels not seen since earlier in the year. Rainbow Chart indicators flashed “fire-sale” conditions this week, according to a June 5 BeInCrypto report. Historic bottom signals appeared for the first time this cycle.
So the setup carries risk. Volatility remains extreme. Regulatory shifts could swing either way. Macro conditions, from interest rates to equity strength, influence flows. Gold outperformed Bitcoin in 2025 as a safe haven, a point some critics highlight.
Yet the buyer who wrote that Motley Fool piece focuses on probability. The upside case looks larger than the path to zero. Adoption trends continue. Supply mechanics favor holders over time. Institutional participation deepens with every passing quarter. Even after the recent bleed, cumulative ETF inflows since launch exceed $50 billion.
Investors on X echo the sentiment in real time. Multiple accounts posted Friday that they continue buying the dip. One noted diversification across assets while adding more Bitcoin. Another highlighted the weekly close as the next key test after Bitcoin closed below $64,000 for the first time in months.
The market has matured. What once moved on memes and retail frenzy now responds to ETF flows, corporate balance sheets, and sovereign policy. That maturation doesn’t erase volatility. It changes the sources.
Basulto’s call boils down to patience and positioning. Buy during Bitcoin season. Endure the collapse phase. Position for the rebound that history suggests arrives in 2027. The halving in 2028 then sets up the next leg.
Whether prices hit $50,000 first or stabilize sooner, the long-term math favors those who accumulate on weakness. Fixed supply meets expanding demand. Everything else becomes noise. The coiled spring sits there, compressed. When it releases, the move could surprise many who focused only on this month’s outflows.
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