As Thanksgiving approaches, American consumers are bracing for a significant spike in turkey prices, driven by a resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu. Recent outbreaks have decimated poultry flocks across key producing states, leading to projections of wholesale price increases as high as 40% compared to last year. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the nation’s turkey population has dwindled to its lowest level in nearly four decades, exacerbating supply shortages just as holiday demand peaks.

This isn’t a sudden crisis but the culmination of ongoing challenges in the poultry industry. Since early 2022, HPAI has affected over 100 million birds nationwide, with turkeys bearing a disproportionate brunt due to their vulnerability and the intensive farming methods used. Fresh outbreaks this month alone have impacted nearly 514,000 turkeys, as reported in a recent analysis by Axios, forcing producers to cull infected flocks and tighten biosecurity measures.

The Economic Ripple Effects on Supply Chains

The fallout extends beyond farms into the broader economy, where wholesale prices for frozen turkeys are expected to hit $1.32 per pound this year—a 40% jump from 2024 averages. Retailers, already grappling with inflationary pressures, may pass these costs onto shoppers, potentially altering holiday meal traditions. Industry experts note that smaller flock sizes, now at historic lows, stem not only from disease but also from deliberate production cuts by major players like Butterball and Cargill to manage risks.

Compounding the issue is the timing: with the federal government navigating a shutdown, as highlighted in a report from The New York Times, coordination on containment efforts has slowed. This has left farmers in states like Minnesota and Iowa, which account for over half of U.S. turkey production, scrambling to implement quarantines and testing protocols amid labor shortages.

Historical Context and Industry Responses

Looking back, similar bird flu waves in 2022 and 2023 drove temporary price surges, but this year’s strain appears more virulent, affecting egg layers and turkeys hardest, per insights from the American Farm Bureau Federation. Back then, prices rose by up to 73% in some markets, as detailed in a 2022 piece by CNBC, prompting shifts toward alternative proteins like ham or plant-based options.

In response, the industry is pivoting toward enhanced vaccination trials and genetic breeding for more resilient birds, though regulatory hurdles remain. Major processors are also diversifying supply chains, sourcing from unaffected regions, but experts warn that without swift intervention, prices could stabilize only post-holidays. A detailed breakdown from CNET emphasizes that while consumer demand for turkey remains strong—around 46 million birds consumed annually for Thanksgiving—supply constraints could lead to shortages in specific sizes, like the popular 12- to 16-pound range.

Broader Implications for Food Security and Policy

For industry insiders, this crisis underscores vulnerabilities in concentrated agriculture, where a few large operations dominate output. The Independent reports that the U.S. turkey flock’s shrinkage to 40-year lows reflects not just disease but economic decisions to reduce herds amid rising feed costs and labor issues. Analysts predict that if outbreaks persist into 2026, it could reshape global trade, with exports dropping and imports from countries like Canada filling gaps.

Policymakers are under pressure to bolster funding for surveillance and rapid response, potentially through amendments to the Farm Bill. Meanwhile, consumers might see innovative coping strategies, such as smaller portions or hybrid menus, but the core lesson for the sector is clear: building redundancy into supply chains is essential to weather such biological threats. As one poultry executive told CBS News, “This isn’t just about birds—it’s about the fragility of our food system in an era of pandemics.”