Uber’s chief executive, Dara Khosrowshahi, has issued a stark warning about the future of ride-hailing: self-driving cars could largely replace human drivers within the next 15 years. Speaking at a recent economic conference, Khosrowshahi highlighted the rapid advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, suggesting that the shift could create profound societal challenges, including widespread job displacement for the millions who currently drive for platforms like Uber.

More than seven million people drive or deliver with Uber every month, according to company data. Yet, as Khosrowshahi noted in an interview with Entrepreneur, the integration of robotaxis and autonomous fleets might render many of these roles obsolete by 2040. This timeline aligns with Uber’s aggressive partnerships, such as its collaboration with Waymo for driverless rides in Phoenix, which has already begun matching riders with fully autonomous vehicles.

The Societal Ripple Effects of Automation in Ride-Hailing

The potential job losses aren’t abstract; they represent a “big, big societal question,” as Khosrowshahi put it during a panel discussion covered by Business Insider. He emphasized that while demand for rides will continue to grow, autonomous vehicles (AVs) will “feather in” gradually, running parallel to human drivers for at least a decade. This phased approach could mitigate immediate disruptions, but it raises questions about retraining programs and economic safety nets for affected workers.

Industry analysts point out that Uber’s pivot to AVs is driven by cost efficiencies. Human drivers account for a significant portion of operational expenses, including wages, insurance, and vehicle maintenance. By contrast, robotaxis promise lower per-mile costs and 24/7 availability, potentially boosting Uber’s margins. Recent updates from PYMNTS.com report Khosrowshahi predicting this replacement in 15 to 20 years, underscoring the company’s long-term strategy.

Partnerships Accelerating the Autonomous Shift

Uber’s collaborations are accelerating this timeline. A partnership with Lucid Motors and Nuro aims to deploy over 20,000 next-gen robotaxis starting in 2026, as announced in a post on X by Uber itself. Similarly, testing in Dallas with Avride involves co-branded autonomous vehicles, signaling expansion beyond initial markets like Phoenix. These moves build on earlier deals, such as the 2023 rollout with Waymo, which has garnered positive rider feedback despite regulatory hurdles.

However, challenges remain. Safety concerns persist, with incidents involving AVs drawing scrutiny from regulators. Khosrowshahi has addressed this, stating in a WebProNews article that Uber is exploring financial models like real estate investment trusts (REITs) to manage robotaxi fleets efficiently, treating vehicles as appreciating assets.

Economic and Ethical Considerations for the Industry

For industry insiders, the ethical dimensions are critical. As The Economic Times explores, the rise of robotaxis could mark the “last decade” for human drivers on roads, prompting debates on universal basic income or gig economy reforms. Khosrowshahi acknowledges that humans will have “plenty of work” in the short term, but the long view suggests a transformation akin to automation in manufacturing.

Uber’s own data from X posts highlights ongoing innovations, like Route Share for affordable commuting, which could coexist with AVs. Yet, critics argue that without proactive policies, this shift might exacerbate inequality, particularly in urban areas reliant on ride-hailing jobs.

Looking Ahead: Balancing Innovation and Human Impact

Looking forward, Uber’s strategy involves scaling AV adoption while maintaining a hybrid model. A recent CNBC report notes the hiring of Uber Freight’s former CEO by autonomous trucking firm Waabi, indicating broader industry momentum toward self-driving logistics. For Uber, this could extend to freight, diversifying beyond passenger transport.

Ultimately, Khosrowshahi’s vision positions Uber at the forefront of transportation’s evolution, but it demands careful navigation of workforce transitions. As AV technology matures, the industry must address not just technical feasibility but the human cost, ensuring that progress benefits society as a whole. With partnerships ramping up and timelines shortening, the road to autonomy is clearer than ever, though the journey promises turbulence for those behind the wheel.