President Donald Trump has narrowed his search for the next Federal Reserve chair, with BlackRock Inc.’s Rick Rieder emerging as a frontrunner after the president publicly praised the executive as “very impressive.” Traders on prediction markets have responded swiftly, elevating Rieder’s odds to 33% on Kalshi, up from lower levels earlier in the week. This development comes amid Trump’s push to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, with a candidate more aligned with his economic vision.

The comments, made during a White House meeting with business leaders on January 22, 2026, mark a pivotal shift. Trump, who has long criticized Powell’s rate policies, signaled he is “down to maybe one, in my mind,” according to a CNBC report. Rieder’s rise reflects Trump’s preference for Wall Street veterans who advocate dovish monetary policies, contrasting with more hawkish contenders.

Rieder’s BlackRock Pedigree

Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, oversees $2.5 trillion in assets, making him one of the industry’s most influential bond experts. His public calls for aggressive rate cuts to combat economic slowdowns echo Trump’s demands for looser policy. In a recent Bloomberg interview, Rieder warned of recession risks if the Fed remains too restrictive, positioning him as a natural fit for the administration.

Trump’s interview process, which began in September 2025 with up to 11 candidates, has whittled down to four finalists, including Rieder. A Fox Business report detailed Rieder’s White House interview on January 15, 2026, as the final step, with sources noting Trump’s enthusiasm. Prediction markets like Kalshi now price Rieder ahead of rivals such as Kevin Warsh and Judy Shelton, per the CNBC article that broke the odds surge.

Prediction Markets Signal Momentum

On Kalshi, Rieder’s nomination odds jumped to 33% following Trump’s remarks, with trading volume spiking 150% in hours. Polymarket showed similar trends, listing him at 28%. These platforms, increasingly influential in gauging political outcomes, reflect bettors’ bets on Trump’s loyalty to allies like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who has navigated close ties with the president.

Congressional dynamics add complexity. Senate Republicans, wary of Trump’s past Fed interventions, may scrutinize Rieder’s Wall Street background. A Bloomberg piece highlighted gaining traction despite blowback risks, citing sources familiar with deliberations. Democrats, led by Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown, have voiced concerns over politicizing the central bank.

Rieder’s Policy Playbook

Rieder’s tenure at BlackRock has been marked by bold bets on duration and credit amid volatility. In 2025, his team navigated Treasury yield swings, outperforming benchmarks by 200 basis points. He has advocated for Fed balance sheet normalization paired with cuts, arguing in a StockTwits analysis that “inflation is transitory, growth needs support.” This dovishness aligns with Trump’s tariff-heavy agenda, which risks inflationary pressures.

Critics point to BlackRock’s ESG push as a vulnerability, though Rieder has distanced himself, focusing on returns. Posts on X from industry watchers, including realDonaldTrump’s account praising Wall Street talent, amplify buzz. Reuters confirmed the interview via its January 12 report, underscoring the process’s seriousness.

Wall Street’s High Stakes

Bond markets reacted with a 5 basis point Treasury yield drop post-Trump’s comments, betting on a Rieder-led Fed’s easing path. Equities surged, with financials leading gains. A Trustnet overview named Rieder among top three with Warsh and Scott Bessent, noting his edge in Trump’s inner circle.

BlackRock shares rose 2% on the news, buoyed by potential prestige. Yet, conflicts loom: Rieder’s oversight of Fed-related ETFs could invite ethics probes. Trump allies argue his independence—evident in past BlackRock critiques of Powell—qualifies him uniquely.

Navigating Senate Confirmation

Confirmation hinges on a 51-vote Senate majority, where GOP defections could derail. Warsh, a former Fed governor, holds at 25% odds, appealing to hawks. Shelton’s gold-standard views lag at 15%. Rieder’s edge? Trump’s endorsement and BlackRock’s bipartisan donor clout, per Bloomberg sources.

Recent X sentiment from finance influencers shows 60% favoring Rieder for stability. Fox Business noted Trump’s process concluding this week, heightening urgency as markets price January 2026 announcements.

Implications for Monetary Policy

A Rieder chairmanship could accelerate cuts, targeting 3% fed funds by mid-2026. His fixed-income expertise promises data-driven decisions, potentially stabilizing curves. CNBC’s latest update ties odds directly to Trump’s praise, cementing Rieder’s lead.

As deliberations peak, the race tests Trump’s Fed influence post-2024 election. With Powell’s exit looming, Rieder’s trajectory—from bond CIO to potential central banker—captivates insiders eyeing policy pivots.