President Donald Trump lands in Beijing this week for talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The meeting, set for May 14 and 15, carries heavy baggage. Trade tensions. Taiwan. Artificial intelligence risks. And above all, the unfinished war with Iran that has roiled global energy markets and delayed the summit once already.
Trump predicted warmth. On social media he said Xi would “give me a big, fat hug when I get there.” Past dealings between the two men lend some credence to that hope. In 2024 Trump told The Wall Street Journal editorial board that Xi “was actually a really good … I don’t want to say ‘friend.’ … But I got along with him great.” Yet the context now feels different. A fragile ceasefire holds in the Middle East. Oil prices swing on every rumor of renewed fighting. And both capitals eye the U.S. midterm elections later this year.
Beijing has played its cards carefully. As the largest buyer of Iranian oil, China prodded Tehran toward de-escalation after Iranian forces disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The move bought time. It also handed Xi leverage. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already confirmed Iran “will be a topic in the meetings,” according to CNBC. That focus risks crowding out progress on tariffs and rare earth supplies. Short meetings. Long agendas. Expectations sit low.
But low expectations don’t mean inconsequential ones. The summit could reset the tone between the world’s two largest economies. Or it could expose the limits of personal rapport when national interests clash. Trump wants deliverables. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly put it plainly: the president “doesn’t travel anywhere without bringing deliverables home to our country.” Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, Boeing aircraft, and energy top the American wish list. Beijing counters with its own priorities: easing tariffs, loosening technology export controls, and dialing back support for Taiwan.
Geopolitics intrudes on economics.
The Iran conflict changed the script. Originally planned for earlier in the year, the trip was postponed as fighting intensified in late February. Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz spiked shipping costs and threatened global supply chains. Trump pressed China to help reopen the waterway. Beijing responded by using its economic clout with Tehran to broker a tenuous pause in hostilities. A lasting peace would ease pressure on China’s slowing economy. It would also let Trump claim a foreign policy win before voters head to the polls.
Recent moves show the friction. The U.S. State Department sanctioned three Chinese companies accused of aiding Iran’s drone and missile programs, as reported by Politico just yesterday. China hit back with its first-ever invocation of “blocking rules” against U.S. sanctions on refiners buying Iranian crude. Banks in China received instructions to pause new loans to certain sanctioned entities, according to Bloomberg. These steps signal defiance mixed with caution. Neither side wants full economic rupture.
Analysts see a pattern. Jonathan Czin, a former National Security Council director for China now at the Brookings Institution, told Fortune that Beijing is “working backward from our midterm elections.” The closer to November, the thinking goes, the more desperate Trump may grow for visible victories. That gives Xi time to extract concessions on technology restrictions and Taiwan. Ali Wyne of the International Crisis Group adds that Xi understands Trump well enough to aim for pomp that flatters the visitor while securing concrete gains. “Xi has a much better understanding of Trump,” Wyne said.
Trade history offers little comfort. The 2017 deals announced during Trump’s first Beijing visit promised $250 billion in purchases. Most never materialized. The 2020 Phase One agreement targeted another $200 billion. Compliance fell short. Last year’s tariff escalations prompted China to slash soybean imports and tighten rare earth exports. A subsequent truce capped some duties but left core disputes unresolved. Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies expects modest purchases of farm goods and aircraft this time. He also anticipates discussion of new bilateral “boards” to identify trade opportunities that avoid national security pitfalls. Yet Kennedy cautions the summit will likely “solidify the advantages China has gained over the past year.”
Taiwan remains the sharpest flashpoint. Trump has alternated between confidence that his personal tie with Xi deters aggression and openness to continued arms sales. Beijing wants explicit U.S. opposition to any moves toward Taiwanese independence. Discussions on artificial intelligence risk management could offer a rare area of overlap. Both sides recognize the dangers of unchecked competition in that field. But suspicion runs deep. Bonny Lin, also at CSIS, notes a “deep sense of suspicion about the United States” persists inside China.
And. The human element matters. Trump dislikes long flights and extended time away from familiar surroundings. His stay in Beijing will span parts of just three days. Xi, for his part, avoids personal diplomacy that Trump enjoys. Past summits featured lavish ceremonies: military parades, private dinners inside the Forbidden City, personalized videos at banquets. This visit will include ceremony. It won’t match the 2017 extravaganza. Tensions run too high. A British prime minister’s recent trip to the same site lacked even Xi’s direct participation.
Markets watch closely. Oil prices have seesawed on news from the Middle East. A genuine Iran deal before the summit would ease supply fears and boost global growth prospects. Trump has hinted such an agreement remains possible. Chinese officials, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi, have urged Tehran to pursue diplomacy while affirming Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy. Iranian diplomats visited Beijing days ago seeking greater Chinese involvement. The signals point to quiet coordination even amid public posturing.
No one forecasts dramatic breakthroughs. Zhao Minghao of Fudan University in Shanghai captured the mood: the meeting serves as “a starting point for more engagement.” The two leaders could sit down as many as four times this year if schedules hold. That frequency alone would mark a shift from recent years of managed hostility. Yet the underlying rivalry continues. Both governments pour resources into reducing dependence on the other. Supply chains diversify. Technology races accelerate. Military postures harden across the Pacific.
Trump returns home seeking political ammunition. Control of Congress in the midterms hangs in the balance. Polls show widespread unease with his economic record and handling of the Iran conflict. A sizable Chinese purchase package or visible progress toward Hormuz stability would help. Xi, meanwhile, faces his own pressures. Slower domestic growth. Questions about military readiness after recent purges. A desire to project strength without provoking outright confrontation.
So the stage is set. Two leaders who once claimed personal chemistry meet again under clouds of war and electoral calculation. The agenda sprawls. The outcomes may prove modest. But in an era of strategic competition, even modest steps toward stability carry weight. The world will parse every handshake, every joint statement, every aside. Deliverables or disappointment. The distinction could shape the next phase of U.S.-China relations.
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