In 2011, the mobile phone industry underwent a tectonic shift that defined the next decade of consumer electronics: Samsung Electronics overtook Nokia to become the world’s largest smartphone maker by volume. It was an era defined by the rise of Android, the fragmentation of form factors, and a volume-over-value strategy that saw the South Korean giant flood global markets with handsets ranging from budget devices to premium flagships. For fourteen years, that hierarchy appeared immutable, a structural reality of the global electronics trade. However, according to new projections detailed by CNBC and data from Counterpoint Research, the era of Samsung’s volume dominance is drawing to a close. Apple is on track to eclipse Samsung in total global shipments in 2025, a watershed moment that signals not just a changing of the guard, but a fundamental validation of the premium-first strategy Cupertino has steadfastly maintained.

This projected inversion of the leaderboard is not merely a statistical anomaly but the result of a long-term convergence of market saturation, lengthening replacement cycles, and the commoditization of entry-level hardware. While Samsung has historically relied on its sprawling Galaxy A-series to pad shipment numbers, razor-thin margins in the budget sector are becoming increasingly difficult to defend against aggressive Chinese OEMs. Conversely, Apple’s relentless focus on the high-end—once criticized as limiting its total addressable market—is now proving to be the industry’s only reliable growth engine. As reported by Counterpoint Research, the premium segment continues to grow even as the broader market contracts, placing Apple in the enviable position of capturing the vast majority of industry profits and, for the first time, the plurality of its volume.

The convergence of Apple’s aggressive entry into generative AI through ‘Apple Intelligence’ and the impending release of a modernized budget-friendly handset creates a perfect storm that threatens to erode Samsung’s remaining advantages in volume shipment metrics.

The catalyst for this historic shift is multifaceted, but industry analysts point to the forthcoming “supercycle” driven by Apple Intelligence as the primary accelerant. As noted in recent coverage by Bloomberg and confirmed by supply chain chatter on X, the integration of generative AI into the iPhone ecosystem is expected to drive a massive upgrade wave among the installed base, particularly for users holding onto iPhone 12 and 13 models. Unlike Samsung, which rolled out Galaxy AI features across a fragmented lineup, Apple’s implementation is expected to drive hardware sales specifically because the new features require the neural engine capabilities found only in the iPhone 15 Pro and the upcoming iPhone 16 and 17 lineups. This hardware-software lock-in creates a compelling urgency for upgrades that the Android ecosystem, with its more open software distribution, struggles to replicate.

Furthermore, the competitive dynamic is shifting rapidly in emerging markets, areas previously considered Samsung strongholds. The CNBC report highlights that Apple’s inventory depletion has significantly improved, setting the stage for aggressive shipments in 2025. This is most visible in India, where Apple has pivoted from being a niche luxury player to a significant volume mover, aided by local manufacturing initiatives and the opening of flagship retail locations. While Samsung still leads in total units in these regions due to its budget offerings, the aspirational nature of the iPhone brand is converting the rising middle class at a rate that legacy Android manufacturers cannot match. As consumers in developing economies see their disposable income rise, they are increasingly bypassing the mid-range Android tier entirely to jump straight into the Apple ecosystem.

Samsung finds itself trapped in a strategic pincer movement, besieged by low-cost Chinese rivals in the budget sector while simultaneously losing ground to Apple’s encroaching dominance in the premium and sub-premium tiers.

To understand the gravity of Samsung’s predicament, one must look at the “sandwich” effect squeezing their mobile division. For years, Samsung used the high volume of its low-cost phones to subsidize the R&D and marketing of its premium Galaxy S and Z Fold lines. However, companies like Xiaomi, Vivo, and Oppo have aggressively undercut Samsung on price while matching them on specs in the sub-$300 category. According to market analysis from IDC, Chinese manufacturers have eroded Samsung’s market share in key regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America. Samsung cannot lower prices further without destroying margins, yet they cannot raise prices without driving customers toward the iPhone, which retains higher resale value and brand cachet.

Compounding this issue is the rumored launch of the iPhone SE 4, expected in early 2025. Industry insiders and leaks circulating on tech forums suggest this device will abandon the dated home-button design for a modern, all-screen look similar to the iPhone 14, complete with OLED panels and 5G capabilities. If Apple prices this device competitively (around the $499 mark), it strikes directly at the heart of Samsung’s Galaxy A55 and S24 FE volume drivers. The Wall Street Journal has previously noted that the mid-range is where the battle for ecosystem entry is fought; if Apple secures the entry-level buyer with a modern SE, those users are statistically unlikely to ever switch back to Android, effectively capping Samsung’s future growth potential.

The financial implications of this volume shift are profound, suggesting that Apple is on the verge of monopolizing not just industry profits, but the supply chain leverage that comes with being the world’s largest purchaser of components.

Volume is not just a vanity metric; it dictates supply chain hierarchy. For over a decade, Samsung’s status as the volume leader allowed it to negotiate favorable terms for memory, screens, and processors—components it often manufactured itself. However, as Apple takes the volume crown, its monopsony power over suppliers will only increase. We are already seeing evidence of this in the display market, where Apple has secured priority production lines for advanced OLED panels. If Apple becomes the number one ship-per of smartphones, suppliers will be even more beholden to Cupertino’s demands and timelines, potentially leaving Samsung’s mobile division to fight for allocation of next-generation components, even from its own sister companies within the Samsung Group.

Moreover, the “premiumization” trend cited by Counterpoint Research indicates that the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is rising. Apple’s ASP is nearly three times that of Samsung. By conquering the volume metric while maintaining this massive disparity in pricing, Apple is effectively draining the pool of available consumer spending on consumer electronics. The metric that matters to Wall Street is no longer just how many units are moved, but the lifetime value of the customer acquired. With an installed base that buys services, watches, and headphones, a volume win for Apple carries exponentially more weight on the balance sheet than a volume win for Samsung.

While Samsung retains a technological lead in foldable form factors, this niche segment has failed to achieve the mass adoption necessary to offset the systemic declines in their traditional candy-bar handset shipments.

Samsung’s primary defense against the Apple onslaught has been innovation in form factors, specifically the Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip series. While these devices are engineering marvels, they remain a fraction of the total market. Recent data from Canalys suggests that while foldables are growing, they are not growing fast enough to compensate for the attrition in the Galaxy S and A series. Furthermore, the foldable category is seeing intense competition from Huawei and Honor within China—the world’s largest smartphone market—where Samsung has virtually zero presence. Apple’s decision to wait on foldables, choosing instead to maximize the refinement of the standard slab phone, appears to be a calculated risk that is paying off. They have allowed Samsung to bear the cost of educating the market on foldables, while Apple continues to dominate the form factor that 99% of consumers actually buy.

The return of Huawei is another variable that hurts Samsung more than Apple. In China, the resurgence of Huawei’s Mate series is cannibalizing Android market share. Because the operating system and app ecosystem are similar, it is far easier for a Chinese consumer to switch from a Samsung to a Huawei than from an iPhone to a Huawei. Consequently, Samsung is losing its foothold in the premium Android space to localized competitors, while Apple’s distinct iOS ecosystem (“walled garden”) protects it from similar erosion. This geopolitical and competitive reality leaves Samsung with fewer avenues for growth, making the loss of the global volume crown to Apple an almost mathematical inevitability.

As the industry looks toward 2026 and beyond, the symbolic loss of the volume crown may force Samsung to undergo a radical strategic restructuring to prioritize profitability over ubiquity.

The psychological blow of losing the #1 spot cannot be overstated for a Korean conglomerate that prides itself on manufacturing prowess and scale. However, this may force a necessary evolution. Just as Apple ceded the volume crown to Android generally but kept the profit, Samsung may need to shrink to grow, culling low-margin models to focus on the high-end AI and foldable experiences where they can still differentiate. The CNBC report implies that the gap between the two tech giants will likely widen in 2025, not narrow. If Apple secures the top spot, it will be the first time an American company has led the mobile market in volume since the pre-smartphone era, marking a definitive end to the “fast follower” epoch of Asian manufacturing dominance in the handheld sector.

Ultimately, Apple’s ascent to the top of the volume charts validates Tim Cook’s long-term operational strategy: control the primary technologies, never compromise on margins for the sake of market share, and wait for the market to come to you. For fourteen years, Samsung proved that being everything to everyone was a winning strategy. But in an era defined by AI integration, ecosystem stickiness, and brand loyalty, the market has decided that it prefers a specific, curated experience over broad utility. The King is dead; long live the King.