For the better part of a decade, the global smartphone market has operated under a tacit duopoly: Samsung Electronics dominated in volume, shipping millions of handsets across every price tier, while Apple claimed the crown for profitability, extracting the lion’s share of industry earnings despite a smaller market footprint. That longstanding equilibrium is rapidly disintegrating. According to new forecasting data from TechInsights, as reported by AppleInsider, Apple is on the verge of a historic structural shift. The Cupertino-based tech giant is projected to displace Samsung as the world’s number one smartphone manufacturer by volume in 2025, a position analysts believe it will hold firmly through 2029.

This projection marks more than a mere statistical fluctuation; it signals the maturation of Apple’s long-game strategy—a relentless march toward “premiumization” that has finally intersected with the global consumer’s appetite for longevity and ecosystem integration. While Samsung has historically relied on a scattershot approach, flooding the market with dozens of models ranging from sub-$100 budget devices to $1,800 foldables, Apple has achieved volume dominance through a streamlined portfolio. The impending inversion of the market hierarchy suggests that the era of market share being driven by low-margin commodity hardware is ending, replaced by an era where hardware is merely the vessel for advanced silicon and artificial intelligence.

The AI Supercycle and the Hardware Reset

The primary engine driving this projected ascent is the integration of Generative AI, branded as “Apple Intelligence.” Industry observers note that while competitors like Samsung and Google were faster to market with AI features, Apple’s integration is viewed as a systemic hardware reset. TechInsights notes that Apple’s aggressive push into AI-capable devices will likely trigger a massive upgrade cycle among its install base, which currently exceeds 1.5 billion active devices. Unlike software updates of the past, Apple Intelligence requires specific silicon—the A17 Pro or later—effectively rendering hundreds of millions of older iPhones obsolete for those wishing to access the latest features.

This creates a forced obsolescence that is less about battery degradation and more about computational capability. Reports circulating on X (formerly Twitter) and supply chain analysis suggest that Apple has adjusted its procurement orders for the upcoming fiscal quarters to accommodate a “supercycle” demand not seen since the introduction of 5G with the iPhone 12. By making AI a fundamental layer of the operating system rather than a bolted-on app, Apple is leveraging its control over silicon and software to compel upgrades in mature markets like the United States and Europe, where smartphone churn has historically slowed to a crawl.

The Strategic Weaponization of the Mid-Range

While the flagship Pro models drive revenue, the volume crown cannot be won without a competitive entry-level device. The AppleInsider report highlights the upcoming iPhone SE 4 as a critical catalyst for Apple’s volume expansion throughout 2025 and 2026. Historically, the SE line has been a recycling bin for older chassis designs, but the upcoming iteration is rumored to feature a modern, all-screen design and, crucially, the same AI-capable internals as the flagship peers. This strategy effectively decapitates the value proposition of mid-range Android devices.

By bringing flagship performance and AI capabilities to a sub-$500 price point, Apple is aggressively targeting emerging markets where price sensitivity has previously kept consumers locked in the Android ecosystem. Analysts at TechInsights argue that this move will allow Apple to capture legacy users in regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America who are looking to migrate to iOS but have been priced out of the numbered series. This pincer movement—pushing the ceiling with the iPhone 17 Pro and raising the floor with the SE 4—leaves Samsung’s Galaxy A-series with shrinking room to maneuver.

Navigating the China-India Bifurcation

The road to global dominance is not without significant geopolitical potholes. Apple faces fierce headwinds in China, historically its most critical growth engine. As noted by TechInsights, the resurgence of Huawei is real and potent. The Chinese giant has clawed back domestic market share with its Mate 60 and Mate 70 series, tapping into a wave of techno-nationalism that has dampened iPhone sales in the region. However, Apple’s projected rise to number one globally assumes this erosion in China will be more than offset by explosive growth in India and other emerging territories.

Apple’s pivot to India is a masterclass in supply chain diplomacy. By moving significant manufacturing capacity to the subcontinent, Apple has not only hedged its exposure to Beijing but also gained favorable retail footing in the world’s most populous nation. Recent reports from financial wires indicate that Apple’s revenue in India is hitting record highs, driven by an aspirational middle class that views the iPhone as a status symbol. While Huawei may reclaim China, Apple is effectively building a new China in India, a trade-off that analysts believe nets out in Cupertino’s favor over the five-year forecast period.

Samsung’s Two-Front War and Identity Crisis

Conversely, Samsung Electronics finds itself in a precarious strategic bind. The South Korean conglomerate is fighting a two-front war it is struggling to win. On the high end, it loses customers to Apple’s sticky ecosystem; on the low end, it is being cannibalized by aggressive Chinese OEMs like Xiaomi, OPPO, and Transsion, who offer comparable hardware specs at razor-thin margins. TechInsights forecasts indicate that while Samsung will remain a formidable number two, its volume leadership is eroding because it lacks a singular, unifying driver like Apple’s iOS ecosystem.

Furthermore, Samsung’s hardware advantage—specifically in display technology and foldables—has failed to translate into a mass-market migration. While Samsung pioneered the foldable category, adoption remains niche, hovering in the low single-digit percentages of total market share. Without a defining software advantage or a proprietary silicon lead (as Samsung continues to oscillate between Qualcomm chips and its own Exynos processors), the company struggles to justify premium pricing in the same way Apple does. The commoditization of Android hardware means Samsung is constantly defending its turf, whereas Apple is simply expanding its walled garden.

The Supply Chain and Silicon Advantage

Underpinning Apple’s volume aspirations is its unparalleled dominance over the global semiconductor supply chain. Apple’s relationship with TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) grants it first-refusal rights on the most advanced manufacturing nodes. As the industry moves toward 2nm fabrication processes later in the decade, Apple will likely be the first to market with chips that offer significant efficiency and performance gains. This creates a virtuous cycle: better chips allow for more advanced on-device AI, which drives hardware upgrades, which funds further silicon investment.

In contrast, the broader Android ecosystem suffers from fragmentation. Competitors must wait for Qualcomm or MediaTek to release chipsets that support new features, creating a lag between innovation and implementation. By the time a feature becomes standard on Android, Apple has often already refined it and marketed it as essential. This vertical integration allows Apple to manage margins more effectively than Samsung, giving it the financial flexibility to price the iPhone SE aggressively without angering shareholders—a luxury Samsung, with its thinner hardware margins, does not possess.

The Long Tail of the Ecosystem

Ultimately, the forecast for Apple’s dominance through 2029 is a bet on the power of the ecosystem over the device itself. A user who buys an iPhone today is statistically highly likely to buy an Apple Watch, AirPods, or subscribe to iCloud and Apple Music. This “flywheel effect” increases the lifetime value of every customer and reduces churn to industry-low levels. AppleInsider reporting suggests that as Apple becomes the volume leader, the sheer scale of its active user base will create a defensive moat that is nearly impossible for competitors to breach.

As the smartphone market matures, the battle is no longer about acquiring new users who have never owned a phone, but about stealing high-value users from competitors. In this zero-sum game, Apple’s brand equity and ecosystem lock-in provide a decisive advantage. Unless Samsung or a Chinese rival can construct a software-services paradigm that rivals iOS, the data suggests that the torch has already been passed. The next five years will likely see Apple not just as the profit leader, but as the ubiquitous face of global mobile computing.