Tesla Inc.’s shares surged to a 2025 peak on Tuesday, propelled by fervor over unsupervised robotaxi trials in Austin, Texas, even as electric-vehicle deliveries faltered. The stock closed at its highest level this year, capping a remarkable rebound after a dismal first quarter that marked its worst performance since 2022. Investors, shrugging off weakening car sales, piled into the shares on optimism that autonomous-driving technology could redefine the company’s trajectory.

Chief Executive Elon Musk disclosed on X over the weekend that Tesla was conducting tests of driverless vehicles without safety drivers aboard, a milestone that electrified markets. ‘Tesla is testing driverless cars in Austin, Texas, without a safety driver in the vehicle,’ Mr. Musk posted, igniting a 5% jump in shares Monday and further gains Tuesday. The announcement came amid broader industry advances in robotaxis, with competitors like Waymo expanding operations.

EV Deliveries Stumble Amid Fierce Competition

Tesla’s core automotive business, however, showed cracks. Global vehicle deliveries are projected to decline about 7% in 2025, following a 1% drop in 2024, according to Visible Alpha estimates cited in recent analyses. The company abandoned earlier guidance for 20%-30% sales growth this year, adopting a more cautious stance as rivals flood markets with new models. Tesla’s once-dominant Model Y has slipped in global rankings amid this onslaught.

Third-quarter results highlighted execution in energy storage and inventory control but occurred within a year of contracting unit volumes and intensifying rivalry. Tesla’s messaging has pivoted sharply from traditional vehicles toward an identity as an AI and robotics powerhouse, with Full Self-Driving Supervised version 14 rolled out in October to enhance performance in tricky scenarios.

Musk’s Autonomy Push Gains Traction

The Austin trials represent a critical step. Tesla vehicles navigated city streets sans human oversight, building on software stacks already deployed in consumer cars. Goldman Sachs maintained its rating on the stock post-announcement, signaling sustained Wall Street interest. ‘Goldman Sachs maintains Tesla stock rating as robotaxi testing begins,’ Investing.com reported.

Reuters noted shares hitting a near-year high after Mr. Musk’s confirmation. ‘Tesla shares hit their highest in nearly a year on Monday after CEO Elon Musk said the electric-vehicle maker was testing its robotaxis without safety monitors in the front passenger seat,’ the wire service wrote. This enthusiasm persists despite quarterly earnings calls where Tesla doubled down on robotaxi timelines, prompting mixed investor reactions of excitement and doubt.

Robotaxi Race Heats Up Across Industry

The sector buzzed in 2025, with Waymo plotting global reach while Amazon’s Zoox launched public rides and Tesla introduced supervised autonomous services. ‘Robotaxis grew rapidly in 2025 with Waymo expanding fastest, Zoox debuting public rides and Tesla launching autonomous rides with human supervision,’ CNBC detailed. Tesla’s edge lies in its vast fleet of data-collecting vehicles, potentially accelerating AI training.

Mr. Musk has long touted robotaxis as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity, far surpassing car sales. Posts on X from Tesla emphasize Full Self-Driving capabilities, such as door-to-door navigation unique to its vehicles. Yet challenges loom: regulatory approvals, technical hurdles, and competition from Waymo, which Mr. Musk dismissed as no match for Tesla’s scale.

Valuation Soars on Future Promises

Tesla’s market capitalization ballooned past $1.5 trillion Tuesday, trading at premiums reflecting bets on autonomy over current earnings. Analysts like those at CNBC highlighted Wall Street’s renewed bullishness. ‘Wall Street’s bullishness on Tesla has returned,’ the network observed, tracing the shift to robotaxi momentum.

Energy storage provided a bright spot, with record deployments, but automotive margins compressed under pricing wars. Tesla’s Q3 shareholder deck touted 7 million vehicles produced at Fremont and preparations for affordable models in early 2025. Investors weigh these against robotaxi risks, including safety incidents and delays that have plagued past promises.

Strategic Shifts and Investor Skepticism

April’s earnings call saw Tesla pledge commercial robotaxi launches soon, with Mr. Musk forecasting material financial impact by late 2026. ‘Autonomous vehicles will “move the financial needle in a significant way” by late next year,’ Reuters quoted. Enthusiasm tempers with skepticism, given historical timelines.

Posts on X from Mr. Musk underscore confidence, claiming Waymo’s disadvantages against Tesla’s advantages. Broader sentiment on the platform reflects hype around unsupervised tests, with Yahoo Finance reporting a stock pop on the news. Ford’s EV reset and charging lawsuits jolted peers, underscoring Tesla’s relative strength.

Path Forward Amid Headwinds

Cybertruck ramps and 4680 cell production advance, per past updates, but 2025 deliveries lag. Nasdaq analyses question if driverless tests warrant stock bets, citing EV slowdowns and high valuations. Tesla’s pivot to AI hinges on regulatory green lights and flawless execution in live services.

Analysts forecast robotaxi revenue streams transforming economics, with vehicles operating as fleets post-owner use. Yet near-term pressures from sales drops and competition persist. Tesla’s stock resilience signals market conviction in Mr. Musk’s vision, even as fundamentals strain.

Broader Market Ripples

The rally rippled through EV stocks, with Tesla leading gains amid sector woes. Yahoo Finance linked the surge to confirmed no-safety-driver tests. Investors eye 2026 for robotaxi scaling, potentially eclipsing car sales as the growth engine.