Bitcoin trades at $73,000. Down 42% from its $126,000 peak in October. Few signs of a breakout above $75,000. Yet Wall Street sees upside. TD Cowen, the U.S. investment banking arm of Toronto-Dominion Bank, forecasts Bitcoin hitting $140,000 by year-end. That’s a doubling from current levels.
The call comes as TD Cowen initiates coverage on Bitcoin treasury companies. Firms like Nakamoto Holdings, Strive, and SharpLink Gaming. All rated “BUY.” Their valuations hinge on Bitcoin reaching roughly $140,000 by December, according to The Block. For Strategy, TD Cowen assumes $5 billion in quarterly Bitcoin buys at that price. Strive gets a $26 target tied to $142 million in projected gains.
Bitcoin’s history backs the optimism. It doubledāor moreāin 2023 with 157% gains. Then 125% in 2024. TD Cowen bets on a repeat. If Bitcoin regains its “digital gold” status as a long-term store of value. Prediction markets agree, sort of. Kalshi and Polymarket peg an 11% chance of $140,000 in 2026, per Yahoo Finance via The Motley Fool.
And the bank doesn’t stop there. Exposure through these treasury plays could outperform spot Bitcoin itself. MicroStrategy set the template. Now others follow. Saylor’s firm reported $14.5 billion in unrealized Q1 losses yet bought $330 million more Bitcoin. Stock rose anyway.
Why Treasuries Are the New Bitcoin Proxy
Bitcoin treasury companies hold BTC on balance sheets. Their stocks amplify gains. TD Cowen sees Nakamoto and Strive soaring on BTC upside. The Motley Fool highlights this shift. Institutions load up without direct crypto custody hassles. Public markets offer liquidity. JPMorgan chases with a $170,000 target for Bitcoin.
But risks loom. Macro uncertainty. No ETF inflow rebound yet. Base cases from some analysts see $80,000-$140,000 range trading in 2026, per CryptoPotato. Support at $65,000-$68,000. Resistance $80,000-$90,000. Cycle peak? $120,000-$140,000 possible if higher highs hold.
Raoul Pal echoes the bullishness. “Bitcoin should be $140,000 right now,” he warns. Global M2 surges. Dollar weakens. Liquidity expands. Fed injected $5 billion in T-bills recently. Catalyst brewing, as posted by traders on X like @CryptoTice_.
Short punch. Markets price in doubt. Bitcoin dominance at 56.6%, rising. Alts bleed. Capital flows to BTC. X buzz from Bitcoin Magazine: TD Cowen’s buy ratings drew 2,392 likes. Sentiment builds.
Prediction Markets and Path Forward
Polymarket odds: 11% for $140,000. 12% for $130,000. Volume $32 million on year-end highs, via Yahoo Finance. Elliott Wave experts eye $140,000 peak before 2026 pain. But Fed liquidity flips the script.
Bitcoin halved in 2024. Post-halving rallies stretch 18 months. October peak fit the pattern. Now? Bottoming phase or new leg up. TD Cowen picks up. Treasuries multiply the bet. $140,000 no sure thing. But Wall Street’s conviction sharpens focus. Watch $75,000 break. Then $90,000. Path clears.
Institutions aren’t fleeing. They’re positioning. Bitcoin waits for the spark. History says don’t bet against it.
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