SpaceX has lowered its targeted valuation for the coming initial public offering. The move comes after earlier talk of topping $2 trillion. Yet even at the revised figure, the rocket maker and satellite operator would command a price that leaves many analysts shaking their heads.
People familiar with the planning told Bloomberg that SpaceX now seeks at least $1.8 trillion. That number has since edged lower. A source close to the deal informed Reuters the company plans to set the IPO price at $135 a share. It would sell 555.6 million shares and raise a record $75 billion. The resulting valuation lands near $1.75 trillion. But wait. The numbers tell a complicated story.
Last year SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in revenue. That marked a solid 33 percent jump from 2024. The New York Times reported those figures after the company filed required disclosures ahead of its public debut. First-quarter 2026 revenue climbed to $4.7 billion. Growth slowed to 14 percent. Losses, however, exploded. SpaceX posted a $4.9 billion net loss for all of 2025 after earning $791 million the year before. Capital spending nearly doubled to $20.7 billion, fueled in part by artificial-intelligence investments. The first three months of this year brought another $4.3 billion loss. Cash continues to burn.
At $1.75 trillion, the IPO would value SpaceX at roughly 94 times last year’s sales. Compare that with Rocket Lab’s 118 times or Palantir’s 81 times. Tesla trades closer to 17 times. The disparity stands out. Morningstar analysts placed a fair-value estimate of $780 billion on the company in a June 1 note. That tag sits 48 percent below recent private-market marks. Nicolas Owens, the lead analyst, warned investors that shares could prove attractive only after the offering if prices fall.
Elon Musk pushed back on the lowered target. He posted “false” on X after the Bloomberg report surfaced. The denial did little to quiet market chatter. Roadshow meetings begin this week. Formal pricing could arrive around June 11. A Nasdaq debut might follow days later under the ticker SPCX. The offering size alone would eclipse every previous U.S. IPO.
Investors who gain access will buy into more than rockets. Starlink, the broadband constellation, drives much of the recent revenue surge. Thousands of satellites beam internet to remote areas and moving vehicles. The business still requires heavy spending to expand capacity and launch replacements. Reusability helps. Yet full operational maturity for the next-generation Starship vehicle remains years away.
Starship itself carries enormous expectations. Company executives have sketched plans for fleets of these vehicles to ferry cargo to Mars, support lunar bases, and even loft data centers into orbit for AI training. Those visions underpin the lofty valuation. Without proven, frequent flights at low marginal cost, the projections stay speculative. A recent test flight of the upgraded Starship delivered partial success. It also scrubbed once, reminding everyone that technical hurdles persist.
Al Root argued in Barron’s that the repeated downward revision in target price sends a warning to broader markets. Index funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 could absorb $30 billion to $40 billion of the offering. That forced buying might prop up the stock initially. Long-term performance of the largest IPOs has often disappointed. Many deliver negative returns in the first year.
Governance adds another layer. Musk will retain tight control through a dual-class share structure and a 366-day lockup for certain insiders. Private investors who have waited years for liquidity may sell aggressively once restrictions lift. The combination of high valuation, ongoing losses, and concentrated ownership leaves little margin for error.
SpaceX still dominates the commercial launch market. Its Falcon 9 rocket flies more often than all competitors combined. Starlink subscriptions grow. Government contracts flow in. Those strengths matter. They do not automatically justify a near-100-times sales multiple for a company that lost nearly $5 billion last year.
Analysts at firms beyond Morningstar have started to question the math. One recent secondary share sale last December targeted an $800 billion valuation. Internal discussions months ago floated $1.5 trillion. The trajectory moved upward fast, then reversed as bankers gauged investor appetite. Consultations with prospective buyers clearly tempered expectations.
So the IPO advances on a still-ambitious price. Demand will likely prove strong among those granted allocation. Retail investors will watch from the sidelines or chase the stock in the aftermarket. Early trading could swing wildly. History shows mega-offerings often open with pops that fade.
Musk has merged some artificial-intelligence initiatives with SpaceX operations. The overlap raises questions about how investors should value the combined entity. No clean peers exist. Traditional aerospace multiples fall short. Software-like multiples feel stretched given the hardware intensity and capital demands.
Plenty of risks remain visible. Regulatory scrutiny over Starlink spectrum and launch cadence could intensify. Competition from Amazon’s Project Kuiper and Chinese state-backed efforts may erode market share. Starship must achieve rapid reusability before the economics of point-to-point Earth transport or deep-space missions make sense.
Yet the company’s technical track record commands respect. It has reduced launch costs dramatically over the past decade. Starlink now serves hundreds of thousands of customers and generates real cash flow in some segments. If execution stays sharp, the long-term opportunity set looks expansive.
For now the lowered target reflects a dose of realism. Bankers and executives listened to feedback. They adjusted. The final IPO price will test whether Wall Street agrees the business deserves its premium. Early indications suggest many will participate anyway. The allure of owning a slice of Musk’s space empire proves hard to resist.
Watch the order book closely in coming days. The outcome will ripple across the space sector. Smaller listed companies such as Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile have already ridden the anticipation higher. A successful debut could sustain that momentum. A weak aftermarket might drag them back down.
Either way, SpaceX’s arrival on public markets marks a milestone. It ends an era of private-only ownership for the industry’s clear leader. It also forces a transparent reckoning with the numbers. Revenue growth impresses. Profitability does not yet exist. The tension between those two facts will define the stock’s path for years ahead.
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