Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon laid out a bold vision for the U.S. economy on CNBC’s Squawk Box, arguing that a rare confluence of fiscal stimulus, deregulation, AI-driven infrastructure spending and productivity boosts could propel nominal growth above consensus estimates in 2026—potentially approaching 8%.

“We have a confluence of some very stimulative things that make us pretty optimistic about the level of growth that we could see in 2026,” Solomon told hosts, tempering the anchor’s 8% nominal figure but affirming Goldman’s view exceeds broader forecasts. He cited strong fiscal measures from recent legislation, a deregulatory push under the Trump administration, massive AI infrastructure investments and emerging productivity gains as key tailwinds.

While Solomon cautioned against exogenous shocks like geopolitical flare-ups, he emphasized the setup for a multi-year expansion. This optimism comes amid Goldman’s recent research forecasts, with the firm predicting 2.8% global GDP growth for 2026, topping the 2.5% consensus, as noted in a Goldman Sachs X post.

Fiscal Firepower Meets Deregulatory Tailwinds

Solomon highlighted expensing and depreciation benefits as major spurs for capital investment. “The expense depreciation benefit is a big benefit to spur investment,” he said, pointing to U.S. and foreign firms breaking ground on factories—including battery plants—that might not have materialized otherwise. Though early, commitments are mounting, signaling the dawn of a significant investment cycle.

“These things take time to build factories, plant factories, actually get them in place, get them online takes time,” Solomon noted. “We’re at the beginning of what is the potential for a much more significant investment cycle.” Goldman Sachs Research echoes this, forecasting U.S. stocks for a fourth straight year of gains driven by solid profits, economic strength and Fed easing, per a January 20 Goldman Sachs X post.

Business sentiment is surging globally, with executives feeling “unleashed” to expand amid technological innovation. Solomon stressed CEOs’ focus on AI implementation, which could unlock productivity not seen in prior job revolutions, as he discussed in a prior Business Insider interview.

AI Infrastructure: The Productivity Catalyst

AI spending stands out as a persistent driver. Continued capex on data centers and related builds provides a steady lift, independent of short-term policy shifts. Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle recently flagged positive U.S. GDP growth and falling inflation for 2026, though labor market paths remain uncertain, according to a Goldman Sachs X post.

Solomon’s remarks align with his Davos outlook, where he expressed optimism on the economy and AI’s future, dismissing bubble fears while noting job evolution differences from past tech waves, as covered in TIME. This builds on October predictions of accelerating U.S. growth into 2026 via stimulus and tech outlays outweighing labor softness, per Bloomberg.

The investment cycle’s early stage offers upside if follow-through materializes. Tracking actual capex—beyond announcements—will be key, Solomon urged, positioning Goldman to monitor via its deal flow and research arms.

Geopolitical Noise Versus Substantive Gains

Beneath economic strength lies fragility. Solomon parsed recent volatility from speeches like Mark Carney’s warnings of global power shifts and President Trump’s NATO deal, which lifted markets. “Markets don’t like uncertainty,” he said, attributing swings to competing narratives.

Yet substance prevails: Businesses prioritize growth over daily headlines. “What’s noise, what’s actually substantively going on?” Solomon advised as a lens. Economic and security issues overlap, from Venezuela’s oil potential to Middle East deals, but U.S. executives tune out short-term din.

On Arctic security—a surprise focus post-inauguration—Solomon cut through rhetoric. “The substantive issue for the U.S. and Europe is Arctic security,” he stated. Strengthening NATO structures there would benefit both, regardless of path, echoing Trump’s Greenland overtures and NATO pressures now recast as strategic imperatives.

Debt Reckoning Looms Amid Optimism

Solomon’s bullishness tempers against risks like the $38 trillion national debt, up from $7 trillion in five years. “It doesn’t seem like we have the ability to pull it back,” he warned in a Yahoo Finance piece, foreseeing a reckoning.

Stock drawdown risks persist, with Solomon cautioning on AI hype in a CNBC interview: Investors overlook skepticism-worthy elements. Trump’s tariff critiques, including calls to replace Goldman’s economist, add policy friction, as reported by CNBC.

Goldman’s internal momentum bolsters credibility: Record results under Solomon, AI bets and consumer strength signal resilience, per recent Business Insider analysis.

Global Echoes and Investment Horizons

Multinationals worldwide share U.S. enthusiasm, slowed only by geopolitical static. Solomon’s view: A stronger growth path is feasible after years of subpar performance, barring shocks.

Goldman’s 2026 equity outlook projects gains from profits and easing, with Kunal Shah forecasting robust U.S. stocks, as in a Goldman Sachs X post. Prediction markets intrigue Solomon as a new frontier, with Goldman eyeing entry amid Polymarket and Kalshi booms, covered by CNBC and Business Insider.

For industry insiders, Solomon’s framework demands vigilance: Track capex flows, AI adoption metrics and security pacts. Nominal growth acceleration hinges on execution amid volatility.