Even as employer-sponsored health coverage holds steady for the nonelderly population at around 60%, small businesses are retreating from offering plans amid premiums climbing faster than wages or inflation. The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) reports that the share of employers providing coverage edged up to 49% in 2024 from 46.3% the prior year, but gains were confined to large firms with more than 100 workers while small employers pulled back sharply. “If health insurance premiums rise faster than wages and general inflation, small employers are likely to face intensified financial strain, which could accelerate the erosion of health plan sponsorship among firms with fewer than 100 workers,” said Paul Fronstin, director of health benefits research at EBRI, in comments reported by Healthcare Dive.

Average employer-sponsored insurance costs hit $17,496 in 2025, a 6% jump from the year before, outstripping inflation and wage growth, according to Mercer’s November survey cited across outlets. Projections point to a further 6.7% rise in 2026, pushing totals above $18,500 per employee. Small firms, which dominate the U.S. employer base, bear the brunt due to limited bargaining power and higher relative administrative burdens.

Eroding Offer Rates Signal Deeper Strain

EBRI’s analysis shows employer-sponsored coverage for the nonelderly fell to 61% in 2024 from 70% between 1970 and 1989, with small firms driving recent declines as they represent most establishments. Eligibility reached 80.2% overall, buoyed by large employers where two-thirds of workers are employed, per Fierce Healthcare. Fronstin noted large firms mitigate expenses by shifting costs to workers through higher deductibles, coinsurance or narrower networks, preserving offer rates but eroding plan value.

In the small group ACA market, insurers filed for median premium hikes of 11% for 2026 across 318 plans in 50 states and D.C., with 10% seeking 20% or more, according to Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker. Enrollment shrank 11.9% in some markets like Maine, with further 10% drops projected, as healthier groups migrate to self-funded or individual options. “The overall SG ACA market size reduced to just 40.8k members, a reduction of 11.9% over the same period in 2024,” stated Anthem Health Plans of Maine.

Premium Pressures Outpace Firm Resilience

Small firms under 50 employees saw family deductibles average $5,074 in 2023 versus $3,547 at larger ones, with workers contributing $7,529 annually—35% of premiums, up from 31% in 2017—per a Commonwealth Fund brief. Half of small-business owners raised employee shares in 2024 to counter rises. BLS data shows small-firm family coverage employer premiums hit $1,232 monthly in March 2024, with participation dropping to 33% from 38% a decade prior despite access holding near 56%.

Mercer’s 2025 National Survey of 2,010 employers forecasts smaller firms (50-499 employees) facing unchecked 9% hikes, fueling four straight years above 5% after a decade near 3%. Prescription costs, up 9.4% among large employers due to GLP-1 drugs covered by 49% in 2025 (from 44%), exacerbate trends. Small operators lack scale for such offsets, prompting exits.

Market Shifts and Migration Accelerate

Self-insurance rates rose post-ACA among small and medium firms through 2024 before possible reversal, per EBRI’s MEPS-IC analysis, offering exemptions from regulations but requiring stop-loss amid volatility. Insurers cite morbidity worsening as low-risk groups flee: “Groups with better than average experience may not purchase ACA products,” noted Physicians Health Plan of Northern Indiana, per Peterson-KFF.

In Ohio, THP Insurance posted a 116% loss ratio on small group business in 2024 due to low volume. Independent Health in New York saw membership losses from competition, estimating 1.65% higher per-member expenses. Rocky Mountain HMO baked in 4% for ACA risk deterioration, 3% from self-funding shifts. Such dynamics signal deepening instability for fully insured small plans.

Worker Burdens Mount as Alternatives Emerge

Employees at small firms pay more for less protection, with deductibles higher in 46 states, risking debt. Policy gaps loom: enhanced ACA tax credits expire end-2025, hiking costs $1,500 on average for 4.4 million self-employed and owners, per Center for American Progress. NFIB decries premiums crippling competitiveness, while X posts from owners like @mwmoedinger lament 37% 2026 jumps and 4.5x rises since 2013.

Large employers offer high-performance networks (35%) and more choices (67% with three-plus plans), per Mercer. Small firms eye ICHRAs, adoption tripling 2020-2024 per HRA Council, or level-funded self-insurance. Yet 68% of owners flag premiums as top 2025 worry, per Thatch/KFF data, with 54% now offering coverage down over a decade.

Policy Crossroads Looms for Coverage Stability

Commonwealth Fund urges Medicaid notifications, permanent credits, and state rate caps like Rhode Island’s. EBRI warns of public program reliance and insecurity without intervention. Fronstin cautioned: “For workers, the impact could be significant, meaning higher out-of-pocket costs, greater reliance on public programs and increased financial insecurity tied to health care expenses.” As costs surge, small firms’ pullback threatens the employer model’s foundation for millions.