Samsung opened 2026 on shaky ground. Its wearable division recorded a 28% year-over-year drop in Galaxy Watch shipments during the first quarter. The global smartwatch market, by contrast, expanded 4%. Samsung’s share of that market shrank to 5% from 7% a year earlier.
Market data tells a tale of diverging fortunes.
Apple posted a 21% increase in shipments. Huawei rose 12%. Xiaomi gained 9%. Those gains came while Samsung bled volume in what has historically been a quiet period ahead of its summer product launches. The numbers come directly from Counterpoint Research and were reported today by Android Police.
Earlier data painted a similar picture of pressure. In Q1 2025 global shipments fell 2% overall. Samsung suffered an 18% decline that outpaced Apple’s 9% drop, according to a July 2025 Counterpoint Research report. Chinese brands surged 53% that quarter. The pattern has persisted.
In the US the story grew sharper. Samsung shipments fell 24% in Q1 2026 even as the American smartwatch market grew 14%. Apple climbed 20%. Garmin added 16%. Apple held a 23% global share. Huawei sat at 17%. China emerged as the fastest-growing region, powered by Huawei, Xiaomi and Imoo. Those figures appeared in a May 2026 analysis from Sammy Fans.
But why the persistent slide? Initial excitement around the Galaxy Watch 8 and 8 Classic faded as the prior year wore on. Consumers held onto devices longer. Upgrade cycles stretched. Prices climbed while feature jumps felt incremental to many buyers. Competition intensified on two fronts. Apple tightened its grip on health tracking and ecosystem lock-in. Chinese vendors flooded the market with aggressive pricing and AI-driven health claims.
And the broader industry picture complicates matters. After years of double-digit growth the smartwatch category showed its first annual decline in 2024. Shipments dropped 7% that year. Apple alone fell 19%. Samsung actually posted modest 3% growth in 2024 thanks to the Galaxy Watch 7, Ultra and FE models. That brief respite now looks like an outlier. Recent X posts echoed the concern. One analyst noted a 19% YoY decline heading into 2025 and questioned whether health features in One UI 8 would prove enough.
Samsung still commands respect. Its watches deliver solid battery life, advanced sensors and tight integration with Galaxy phones. The rotating bezel on some models remains a tactile favorite. Blood oxygen, ECG and sleep apnea detection give it medical credibility in several markets. Yet those strengths haven’t translated into volume lately. Market saturation in North America and Europe bites hard. Replacement demand has cooled.
Executives at Samsung have signaled that the upcoming Galaxy Unpacked event, now just over a month away, must deliver meaningful upgrades. The Galaxy Watch 9 and a refreshed Ultra 2 sit at the center of recovery hopes. Rumors point to better processors, refined AI coaching and possibly new health metrics. Whether those changes move the needle depends on pricing discipline and marketing focus.
Analysts remain cautious. Anshika Jain, senior research analyst at Counterpoint, pointed to AI features and improved health sensors as drivers for a modest 3% market rebound later in 2025. That optimism hasn’t fully materialized for Samsung yet. The company has lost ground across most major regions. Only select pockets show resilience.
Longer term the category still holds promise. Projections from various research houses forecast the smartwatch market reaching well over $100 billion in revenue by the early 2030s. Growth will come from emerging markets, standalone cellular models and deeper integration with telemedicine and personalized wellness programs. But near-term execution matters most. Samsung cannot afford another quarter of double-digit declines.
The pressure is evident in pricing moves too. Discounts on older Galaxy Watch models have appeared more frequently. Bundles with Galaxy phones aim to prop up attach rates. These tactics buy time. They don’t solve the underlying innovation gap some critics perceive.
Watch buyers today demand more than notifications and step counts. They want accurate, actionable health insights. They expect multi-day battery without compromise. And they compare across ecosystems. Samsung’s advantage with Android users has narrowed as Wear OS matures and rivals optimize their own platforms.
So the stakes rise with each passing month. The next Galaxy Watch series must not only impress reviewers. It needs to convince fence-sitting owners of three- and four-year-old devices that an upgrade delivers clear value. Otherwise the shipment erosion could harden into structural weakness.
Industry watchers will track Q2 numbers closely. Any rebound tied to pre-launch inventory or early Galaxy Watch 9 teasers could signal a turning point. Sustained recovery will require more. Samsung has the resources. The question is whether its product roadmap matches the speed of competitors now gaining share in both premium and midrange segments.
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