For decades, the United States has been widely regarded as the epicenter of artificial intelligence (AI) innovation, drawing top global talent to its research centers and tech giants. But new data show the U.S.’s uncontested leadership in cultivating and retaining elite AI expertise is eroding as other nations rapidly ramp up their AI ecosystems, sparking shifts that could reshape the global technological landscape.

According to a report highlighted by Semafor, American dominance in the AI talent pool is slipping. Citing recent research from Zeki Data, the report notes that while the U.S. still hosts a significant concentration of top AI scientists, an increasing number are relocating abroad or opting to work in their home countries. In 2023, for the first time, the proportion of elite AI researchers staying in or moving to the U.S. fell below 50%, down from 59% eight years prior. This trend marks a turning point that industry observers believe may have lasting implications for America’s global competitiveness.

Fueling this shift is a network of emerging AI powerhouses, notably in Europe, China, Canada, and India, each making strategic investments in AI infrastructure and education. Data show that more researchers are choosing to build their careers outside the U.S. than ever before, lured by growing opportunities, supportive policies, and the prospect of driving AI revolutions closer to home.

India, in particular, has made explicit its ambitions to become a global AI leader. On May 2nd, the Indian government launched the IndiaAI Mission, a national initiative backed by a ₹10,372 crore (over $1.2 billion) investment. The program aims to accelerate AI innovation through a range of measures, including building high-power computing infrastructure, fostering startup ecosystems, and launching accessible AI research resources for public sector and industry collaboration. According to the official government press release, the initiative aspires to “catalyze AI innovation through strategic programs and partnerships across the public and private sectors.”

Bailey Reutzel, reporting for Semafor, points to the shifting demographics of AI conference participation and publication, historically viewed as a bellwether of leadership within the field. Major conferences like NeurIPS and the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) have seen steady increases in the proportion of papers and contributions originating from outside the United States. The traditionally dominant flow of international students and scholars to U.S. universities appears to be plateauing as more top students take up studies in their home countries or other attractive destinations.

A major driver behind the talent shift is tightening U.S. immigration policy. While America’s research universities and tech companies have long relied on inflows of foreign PhDs—over half the AI PhDs working in the U.S. are foreign-born—complicated visa requirements and political uncertainties have increasingly deterred interest. Meanwhile, countries like Canada have implemented streamlined pathways for skilled immigrants, and China, South Korea, and India have grown aggressive in luring back their top graduates abroad with research fellowships and leadership opportunities.

According to Zeki Data’s analysis, 56% of the world’s top AI researchers currently reside outside the U.S., with sizable proportions in Western Europe and East Asia. Notably, the number of top-tier AI scientists based in Canada has more than doubled in the last decade, solidifying Toronto and Montreal as major AI research hubs.

The IndiaAI Mission’s goals hint at another emerging axis of competition. By focusing on democratizing AI access—developing public computing infrastructure, open datasets, and robust testing frameworks—India hopes to nurture a wave of homegrown solutions tailored for its vast and dynamic market. The initiative also includes funding for centers of excellence and a drive to cultivate national and international partnerships across academia, industry, and government.

While American universities and tech giants remain at the forefront of AI research and commercialization, many experts warn that the loss of preeminence in AI talent threatens long-term innovation capacity. The migration of scientists and entrepreneurs to more agile or well-resourced environments could, they argue, ultimately shift where future technological breakthroughs originate.

For now, the U.S. continues to benefit from deep pools of talent and institutional strength, but these new data signal a world in which leadership in artificial intelligence may soon be up for grabs.