Portugal’s gambling authority has delivered a stark ultimatum to Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-fueled prediction platform that has reshaped betting on global events. The Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ) ordered the U.S.-based firm to halt all operations in the country within 48 hours, citing illegal political wagering tied to the nation’s recent presidential election. Volumes surged past €110 million as bets poured in ahead of results, prompting fears of insider trading and prompting swift blocks on access.

This move marks Portugal as the latest nation to target Polymarket amid its explosive growth. TradingView News reported the regulator’s directive, emphasizing concerns over user safety and unlicensed activity (TradingView News). Yahoo Finance detailed how suspicious pre-election activity, including massive wagers on outcomes, fueled the probe, with authorities planning nationwide IP blocks if Polymarket fails to comply (Yahoo Finance).

The election itself, held earlier this month, saw a populist surge that heightened scrutiny. André Ventura of the Chega party placed second, setting up a runoff against a center-left rival, as covered by AP News. Polymarket’s markets captured this drama with real-time odds, drawing bettors who wagered millions on candidates amid Portugal’s fragmented politics.

Election Frenzy Fuels Unprecedented Volumes

Polymarket’s Portugal presidential markets exploded with activity, amassing over €110 million in volume—equivalent to roughly $120 million—primarily in the days before official results. The Block highlighted how bets spiked suspiciously just prior to announcements, raising red flags for regulators (The Block). Traders poured in crypto, betting on Ventura’s upset potential and other contenders in a race that marked Portugal’s first presidential runoff in four decades.

Cryptonews pinpointed an alleged €4 million insider trading scandal at the heart of the backlash, where large positions aligned too closely with unpublished outcomes (Cryptonews). SRIJ’s letter to Polymarket demanded immediate geoblocking of Portuguese users, threatening fines and enforcement actions. As of Monday, the platform remained accessible, but volumes continued climbing on election-related contracts.

Posts on X reflected trader frustration and defiance, with Polymarket’s official account silent on the ban but active on unrelated markets. Sentiment leaned toward viewing the order as overreach, though regulators framed it as protecting citizens from unregulated crypto risks.

Regulator’s Legal Hammer Falls Hard

SRIJ classifies political betting as prohibited under Portuguese law, reserved for licensed operators only. CoinDesk noted Portugal joining a swelling roster of countries— including recent actions in two others within 48 hours—cracking down on Polymarket’s borderless model (CoinDesk). The 48-hour deadline, issued last week, underscores the urgency, with non-compliance risking criminal penalties.

Benzinga reported the dual bans, linking them to Polymarket’s political markets that have drawn fire worldwide for potential manipulation (Benzinga). In Portugal, the election’s high stakes amplified issues: Ventura’s strong showing reflected voter discontent, and Polymarket odds shifted dramatically, mirroring polls but outpacing traditional media.

Al Jazeera covered the runoff dynamics, noting how fragmented results propelled far-right momentum—a backdrop that made prediction markets irresistible yet contentious.

Polymarket’s Global Defiance Meets Local Pushback

Founded on blockchain with USDC settlements, Polymarket has thrived on events from U.S. elections to sports, boasting low fees and sharp liquidity. MEXC News observed the platform’s persistence despite the order, with election bets still boosting volumes on Monday (MEXC News). CEO Shayne Coplan has positioned it as a truth serum for uncertain events, but regulators see unlicensed gambling.

Hokanews detailed the shutdown rationale: prediction markets violate gambling statutes, especially political ones (Hokanews). Enforcement could involve ISP blocks, mirroring France and Singapore’s tactics. Polymarket users in Portugal now face VPN hurdles, while the firm eyes appeals or workarounds.

Bloomingbit confirmed the suspension demand, underscoring crypto’s clash with fiat oversight (Bloomingbit).

Insider Trading Shadows the Surge

Investigators zeroed in on bets placed hours before results, with one cluster totaling over €4 million favoring winners. The Block’s analysis suggested non-public info advantages, echoing U.S. scrutiny during 2024 elections. SRIJ invoked consumer protection, halting what it deemed predatory crypto bets.

Yahoo’s second report emphasized the 48-hour clause and political betting illegality (Yahoo). Polymarket’s transparency—public ledgers and trader stats—did little to sway authorities, who prioritize licensing.

X chatter from insiders speculated on whale influences, but no firm evidence emerged beyond volume anomalies.

Broader Implications for Crypto Betting

This ban tests Polymarket’s resilience, with $2 billion-plus in 2025 volumes across markets. AP News and Al Jazeera context shows Portugal’s election as a microcosm: rising populism meets tech disruption. Regulators worldwide watch, potentially spurring harmonized rules.

TradingView warned of user safety risks in unregulated spaces. As runoffs loom, Polymarket odds persist offshore, but Portuguese bettors risk fines. The saga highlights crypto platforms’ sovereignty challenges versus national sovereignty.

Industry observers predict more blocks, yet Polymarket’s partnerships—like recent DAZN tie-ups—signal expansion elsewhere. Portugal’s stand may catalyze compliance innovations or deepen divides.