PayPal shares exploded higher this month. The catalyst? A reported joint bid from Stripe and Advent International. The offer valued the payments veteran at more than $53 billion, or $60.50 a share. That represented a 28 percent premium to the prior close. Yet many who follow the stock closely called it insufficient.
The Motley Fool article from July 19, 2026 captured the immediate reaction. PayPal had just installed a new chief executive in February. Enrique Lores arrived from HP with a mandate to steady the ship. Boards rarely hand the keys to a fresh leader and then sell weeks later. At least not without seeing results.
But the numbers tell their own story. PayPal generated $6.4 billion in free cash flow last year. It sat on $13.5 billion in cash and investments at the end of March. A buyer could recover the entire purchase price in under nine years with no growth assumed. That math makes the deal look like a bargain for the acquirers. For current shareholders? The picture is more mixed.
Investors had grown impatient. The stock had lost nearly 85 percent of its value from its 2021 peak. A February earnings miss triggered a further 20 percent drop and the abrupt exit of the prior CEO. Guidance for 2027 was pulled. The company suddenly looked vulnerable. Forbes noted in March that PayPal’s market capitalization had slipped to around $43 billion. It now sat well below its former parent eBay.
Rumors of interest surfaced earlier. Bloomberg first reported in February that Stripe had expressed preliminary curiosity about all or parts of PayPal. Shares jumped 7 percent then. Yahoo Finance covered the pop. Those talks went nowhere immediately. Yet the seed was planted. By mid-July the conversation had escalated into a concrete cash offer.
Stripe and Advent did not come alone. Reports indicated Block would also participate with equity. The group committed roughly $50 billion in bank financing. Their plan kept PayPal intact rather than breaking it apart. That approach avoided some regulatory speed bumps. Still, the PayPal board viewed the price as too low. Reuters reported on July 16 that directors saw regulatory and financing issues as well. The board planned further meetings. July 20 loomed as a key date.
Michael Burry weighed in fast. The investor, known for his prescient housing-market call, holds PayPal in his portfolio. On his Substack he labeled the $60.50 bid “simply too low.” He pegs the company’s intrinsic value between $75 and $115 a share depending on assumptions. Add a control premium and a fair buyout sits near $100, he argued. “I am not selling, and I believe it is only an opening bid,” Burry wrote. The Motley Fool unpacked his math on July 18.
His critique resonated. The offered multiple looked cheap against cash flow. At the first-quarter run rate the deal priced PayPal below eight times adjusted free cash flow. Earnings multiple sat around 11 times. PayPal had returned $6 billion to shareholders through buybacks over the trailing 12 months. It continued that discipline even amid uncertainty. First-quarter buybacks alone reached $1.5 billion.
Yet growth remains the weak spot. Revenue rose 7 percent in the first quarter. Transaction-margin dollars advanced just 3 percent. Active accounts totaled 439 million, up a mere 1 percent year over year. Management guided for flat to slightly down adjusted earnings per share for the full year. Those figures explain why the stock had languished. They also explain why a patient operator might see upside.
Venmo stands out as the hidden asset. The peer-to-peer app posted 20 percent revenue growth last year. It counts 67 million monthly active users who trend younger and more affluent than PayPal’s core base. Mizuho analysts once called Venmo the “ultimate” P2P franchise. The Motley Fool highlighted Venmo on July 15 as potentially the real prize for Stripe or Block. A combined entity could pair Stripe’s merchant infrastructure with PayPal’s consumer network. Complementary strengths. Minimal direct overlap.
Lores brings relevant experience. Days after he became HP’s CEO in 2019 a hostile bid arrived from Xerox and Carl Icahn. He outlasted it. The parallel is striking. New leader. Turnaround plan. Immediate suitor pressure. His language at PayPal about “optimizing our portfolio” has drawn attention. In corporate speak that phrase often signals openness to divestitures or sales.
Other names have surfaced in speculation. Forbes floated Walmart, Intuit, Intercontinental Exchange, T-Mobile and Uber as overlooked possibilities. Each could find strategic fit. Walmart might build a closed-loop payments network. Intuit could add transaction data to its financial-software empire. The list illustrates how broadly PayPal’s assets appeal once the price looks right.
Recent chatter on X echoed the debate. One user noted the branding feels tired yet the platform remains solid. Another highlighted Lores’s HP track record and suggested the current offer might prompt portfolio optimization rather than outright rejection. Posts also mentioned the board meeting scheduled for July 20. Sentiment tilts toward expecting a higher bid or competing interest.
PayPal’s independence is not assured. The company has spent years trying to evolve beyond its core checkout button. Super-app ambitions under previous leadership never fully materialized. A sale would hand those challenges to new owners with deeper pockets and perhaps fresher ideas. For shareholders tired of the turnaround narrative an exit at the right price could bring relief.
But selling now risks leaving money on the table. PayPal’s cash engine still runs strong. Buybacks provide a floor. And the initial bid has already flushed out interest that could drive the price materially higher. William Blair analysts called the $60.50 figure an opening salvo and saw a path to $70 a share.
The coming days will clarify much. If the board rebuffs the offer outright, the stock could surrender some of its recent gains. If talks advance, expect counterproposals. Either way the episode marks a turning point. PayPal no longer looks like a forgotten payments name. It looks like a prize. How the company and its shareholders play the next hand will shape its path for years ahead.
Recent coverage reinforces the momentum. Reuters broke details of the $53 billion bid on July 15. The New York Times described the potential industry reshape. CNBC confirmed the surge in shares. These accounts align on the numbers and the early skepticism from PayPal’s side.
Whether a deal closes at $60.50, climbs toward Burry’s $100 target, or collapses remains unknown. One fact stands clear. The conversation has shifted. PayPal is in play.
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