As mobile devices (especially tablets) have become more popular in recent years, sales of low-cost mobile devices have eaten into the sales of traditional PCs. This has been especially true for notebooks, as low-cost tablets have made more expensive notebooks seem unnecessary for consumers who do not need the full functionality of a PC.

Today market research firm NPD released a new report showing just how far the notebook segment has fallen. The report shows that nearly all top notebook brands are revising down their shipment estimates for notebooks in 2014.

According to the report, only 134 million notebooks will be shipped in 2014 by the top nine notebook brands, including HP, Lenovo, Apple, Samsung, Sony, Asus, and Toshiba. This number is already down significantly from a previous NPD estimate of 152 million units, and the firm warns that notebook shipments are set to fall again this year.

NPD predicts that the long-rumored Apple mega-tablet could cut further into the notebook market. In addition, the firm does not believe many small, inexpensive notebooks (the only ones that are showing growth) will be released during the first half of 2014. A separate report today has revealed that Samsung is all but abandoning the notebook market, though it will make new Chromebooks that may not be ready before 2015.

“The declines in notebook PC shipments will have many effects on the notebook PC value chain in the coming year,” said Jeff Lin, value chain analyst at NPD. “We expect panel makers to shift Gen 5 and 6 capacity from TFT LCD for notebook panels to oxide, LTPS, and other technologies. OEM and ODM businesses will face new challenges in the allocation of product development resources for Windows OS and Android OS. Also, as Samsung reduces notebook PC shipments, HP, Lenovo, and Asus will fill the gap in the European market.”

Image via Lenovo