SpaceX hit the public markets this year at a staggering valuation. Shares opened around $135. The company quickly crossed the $2 trillion mark in market value. Yet not everyone cheers the milestone. Mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Creek Capital, delivered a blunt verdict in a Cointelegraph interview. “To me, SpaceX is the equivalent of Dogecoin,” he said. “Mark Cuban and Elon Musk own most of the coins. And then there’s this cult of people who own it and think it’s worth something, but it’s not worth anything. If Elon sold one Doge, Doge would go to zero.”
Short. Sharp. And loaded with skepticism. Yusko, a longtime Bitcoin advocate who oversees billions, didn’t stop at the meme comparison. He zeroed in on the numbers. At a $2 trillion valuation, SpaceX would need to generate earnings equivalent to roughly half the projected U.S. gross domestic product in 10 years just to deliver a 10 times return for new investors. “It’s a mathematical impossibility,” he added.
The comments landed as SpaceX stock slipped. Shares dropped more than 12 percent over five days and nearly 28 percent in the past month after the IPO, according to the same Yahoo Finance report. Optimists point to Starlink’s subscriber growth, Starship test flights, and potential artificial intelligence data center revenue. Yusko sees something else. A structure that echoes Tesla’s early days but with higher stakes and thinner liquidity.
Only about 4 percent of shares float freely after the offering, he noted. Elon Musk controls 46 percent. Other investors hold the rest. “He makes Tesla look like a practice run with what he did at SpaceX,” Yusko said. “He’s basically stuffing this overpriced security into mom and pops retirement account so he and his VC buddies can cash out. To me, that’s theft.” Strong words. They reflect a broader worry that hype around space, satellites, and AI has detached prices from fundamentals.
Recent trading data backs part of the caution. As of July 13, 2026, SpaceX trades near $139 per share, giving it a market capitalization around $1.91 trillion on secondary markets, per Notice.co data. That’s down from peaks above $2 trillion right after the June IPO. A Reuters report from early June detailed plans for a $1.75 trillion target in an all-primary offering that raised at least $75 billion directly for the company. Reuters sources described it as the largest listing ever.
Yet execution challenges remain. SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion loss last year. Cumulative losses top $41 billion since founding. A CNBC analysis highlighted the contrast. The company closed its first trading day above $2 trillion despite those red ink figures and revenue that trails far behind other tech giants. “SpaceX closed Friday with a market cap above $2 trillion,” the CNBC article noted, adding Musk once gave the venture less than a 10 percent chance of success.
Starlink drives the growth story. The satellite internet service now deploys batches of 24 or 29 satellites per Falcon 9 launch on a near-weekly basis. SpaceX’s own X account confirmed multiple successful missions in the past week alone, with videos and images of California and Florida liftoffs. Revenue projections for 2026 range from $34.3 billion to $43.2 billion, with a midpoint near $39 billion. That puts the current valuation at roughly 51 times forward sales. A Motley Fool contributor argued shares could climb toward $220 by year-end if Starlink, AI compute, and Starship scale as hoped. But the Yahoo Finance piece also warned the multiple will likely compress as post-IPO excitement fades.
Lockup expiration looms as the next pressure point. When insiders and early employees gain the ability to sell, supply could overwhelm demand. Yusko expects a sharp drop. “I think, ultimately, as the lockup expires and the people try to sell, I think that goes down a lot,” he said. “Like, a lot, a lot.” Investors chasing the next Microsoft or Amazon may feel disappointed. Those companies went public with market caps in the hundreds of millions, not trillions.
But. The counterargument persists. SpaceX operates the world’s leading commercial launch business. It flies more mass to orbit each year than most nations. Starlink already turns profitable in key regions and could reach hundreds of millions of subscribers if regulatory and technical hurdles clear. Musk has spoken of Starship enabling Mars missions and point-to-point Earth transport. AI infrastructure deals, possibly tied to xAI, add another layer. Bulls see a business that defies traditional valuation models because its addressable markets span the solar system.
Still the math matters. At current levels, SpaceX must execute flawlessly across rockets, satellites, software, and energy systems. Any delay in Starship reusability or regulatory pushback on Starlink spectrum could shift sentiment fast. Recent X posts from traders and commentators amplified Yusko’s view. One hedge fund manager with over $500 billion under oversight called the setup unsustainable. Others labeled it a faith-driven asset more than a traditional equity.
Comparisons to Dogecoin sting because they highlight concentrated ownership and narrative power. Musk’s personal brand fuels both. When he tweets, prices move. When he launches, attention follows. That charisma built SpaceX from near bankruptcy in the early 2000s to a public behemoth. It doesn’t guarantee future returns. Yusko believes a rotation from overheated equities into Bitcoin and gold will accelerate. He sees Bitcoin as the cheaper bet on technological progress and store of value.
Analysts differ. Some project steady revenue growth from Starlink alone could justify premiums if subscriber counts hit aggressive targets. Others focus on the $137 billion valuation from SpaceX’s last major private round in 2023 and note the massive markup since. Secondary market platforms now reflect the post-IPO reality with daily price swings. One recent YouTube analysis suggested the stock may linger near $150 for months, offering limited upside from here without major positive surprises.
The debate will rage for quarters. SpaceX reports no traditional quarterly earnings yet as a newly public entity, but transparency requirements will increase. Watch launch cadence, Starlink activation numbers, and any Starship orbital success. Those metrics will test whether the $2 trillion tag reflects vision or exaggeration. Yusko’s warning serves as a reminder. Extraordinary narratives demand extraordinary proof. And proof takes time. So far, the market gives SpaceX the benefit of the doubt. How long that lasts depends on delivery, not declarations.
Lockups unwind. Satellites multiply. Rockets fly. The company that once struggled to reach orbit now faces scrutiny at cosmic scale. Its success or stumble will shape opinions on private space investment for decades. Yusko bets on the stumble. Many others bet against him. The data will decide.
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