JPMorgan is sounding the warning about the US economy, saying it is “already past the point of no return.”
The last couple of weeks has been hard on the banking industry, with Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsing and Credit Suisse being bought by rival UBS. In the meantime, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is leading an effort by eleven banks to prop up First Republic and prevent it from following suit.
Unfortunately, JPMorgan thinks it may already be too late to stop the US from falling into a full-blown recession.
“The Fed is facing a difficult task on Wednesday, but it is likely already past the point of no return,” JPMorgan strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, the bank’s chief global markets strategist, wrote in a note to clients Monday, according to Fortune. “A soft landing now looks unlikely, with the airplane in a tailspin (lack of market confidence) and engines about to turn off (bank lending).”
Even if the efforts to stabilize the banks work, JPMorgan doesn’t believe that will be enough.
“Even if central bankers successfully contain contagion, credit conditions look set to tighten more rapidly because of pressure from both markets and regulators,” JPMorgan wrote.
The analysis is bad news and likely only the beginning.
