Wall Street’s dealmakers hit a snag last month. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s top executive for mergers and acquisitions called April a “challenging” period, pinning the blame on geopolitical jitters from the Iran war. Clients paused transactions. They waited for clarity that never quite arrived.
Anu Aiyengar, global head of advisory and M&A at JPMorgan, laid it out plainly during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference. “When you see that it’s about to get solved you may say, ‘You know what? Let me just wait for a few weeks,’” she said. “So there’s been a bit of stop and start that has happened in April.” Bloomberg captured the moment, echoing reports from Investing.com.
Uncertainty rules. The Iran conflict, now dragging into its third month, has roiled energy markets and strained global supply chains. Oil prices hovered above $118 a barrel in late April, per market snapshots. Clients aren’t rushing into commitments. They’re holding back, eyeing headlines from the Strait of Hormuz.
Geopolitical Turbulence Freezes the Deal Pipeline
It’s not just talk. Deal activity stuttered across categories. Smaller transactions, those under $2 billion, dried up as buyers chased scale amid volatility. Aiyengar pointed to a market premium on bigness. “Everybody is like: ‘Let’s go big, let’s go big, let’s do 10-plus-billion-dollar deals,’ which is what we call mega-deals,” she noted. JPMorgan advised on 71 such behemoths in 2025. Already, 30 closed in the first four months of 2026. Yet April’s hesitation slowed the pace.
And the war amplifies everything. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has sounded alarms repeatedly. In his annual shareholder letter, he warned the conflict risks oil shocks, sticky inflation, and higher rates that could batter markets further. Wall Street Journal coverage highlighted his caution: prolonged fighting might reshape supply chains and keep inflation elevated. Trading desks at JPMorgan posted record hauls from the volatility—profits up 13% in Q1, boosted by war-driven swings, as reported by The Banker. But dealmaking? That’s another story.
Broader forces compound the pain. Central banks grapple with war-fueled inflation. The ECB delayed cuts; the BOJ hiked forecasts to 2.8%. Eurozone PMI slipped below 50 in April, signaling contraction tied to the conflict, according to JPMorgan strategists on Bloomberg Radio. Clients feel it. High Street sales in the UK tanked—the worst April in a decade—amid consumer squeezes from energy costs.
But mega-deals endure. Why? Scale offers buffers. Companies bulk up for resilience in turbulent times—AI capex, supply chain fortification. JPMorgan’s own outlook earlier this year foresaw rising risks spurring consolidation, with Aiyengar telling Reuters in January that CEOs seek safety in bigness amid political turmoil and tech shifts. Thirty mega-deals year-to-date prove the point. Smaller fish struggle.
May Signals Thaw, But Risks Linger
Pipeline chatter persists. JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum told analysts pipelines look healthy, though Middle East developments could snag execution. BNN Bloomberg noted Wall Street’s cautious bet on a 2026 boom. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon echoed a slight IPO slowdown in March but healthy backlogs. Still, no resolution in Iran. Naval blockades choke waterways. Oil bids higher.
Clients adapt. Some pivot to EM credit, though JPMorgan desks buy protection amid cheap hedges, per X posts from market watchers. Stocks hit records despite no Iran fix—S&P near highs after a 9.1% dip and snap-back, as JPMorgan insights puzzled. Markets sell first, buy later.
April’s chill tests resolve. Dealmakers wait. Geopolitics decides. If tensions ease, pent-up demand could flood in. Prolong the war? More pauses ahead. Wall Street watches Hormuz. And oil ticks up.
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