Goldman Sachs analysts just turned heads with a fresh upward revision to China’s robotaxi forecasts. The fleet? Now pegged at 5,000 vehicles in 2025, ballooning nearly threefold to 14,000 by end-2026, and exploding to 3.1 million units by 2035—capturing 36% of the nation’s ride-sharing pool. That’s a 7% to 25% hike across the timeline, driven by deployments smoother than expected and crisp 2026 targets from operators. Yahoo Finance broke the story Friday, citing a note from April 18 penned by Allen Chang.
Commercialization’s picking up steam. Several players hit city-level break-even. Tier-1 hubs like Beijing and Shanghai? Goldman sees them profitable by 2026, baking in 21 daily trips per vehicle, $2.8 average fares, and $21,000 price tags. Boom. WeRide and Pony.ai stand out as prime winners in this surge.
Take WeRide. Goldman kicked off coverage with a Buy rating and HK$54.23 target. Revenues? An 80% compound annual growth rate through 2030. Global fleet jumps from 2,800 in 2026 to 415,000 by 2032. The firm’s already running public rides in Dubai and Riyadh, eyes fully driverless ops in Abu Dhabi by mid-2026 H1. Smart pivot to asset-light too—less capex, more scale. Investing.com detailed the overseas angle: Chinese outfits leaning hard on international growth, with WeRide’s foreign fleet hitting 29% of total by 2026, climbing to 43% by 2035.
Pony.ai’s no slouch. Goldman stuck with Buy on its ADRs at $30 and launched HK$234 on Hong Kong shares. Expect 100% revenue CAGR 2025-2030, fueled by fleet ramps and PonyWorld 2.0’s self-improving AI. The company hit 961 robotaxis by late 2025, including 667 seventh-gen models achieving Guangzhou-wide break-even. Plans? Triple to over 3,000 by end-2026 across 20 cities. Yahoo Finance echoed the call, noting Pony’s edge in next-phase expansion.
Baidu’s Apollo Go leads the pack, but pure-plays like these two steal the spotlight. Apollo notched 300,000 weekly driverless rides by Q4 2025, per earlier Goldman work, yet analysts flag WeRide and Pony for outsized gains. Overseas fleets for Baidu? 7% in 2026, 38% by 2035. Radar Autonomy on X highlighted this shift, pointing out U.S. chatter fixates on Waymo while markets price China’s global play. X (Radar Autonomy).
China’s edge sharpens. Hardware costs plummet—Baidu’s RT6 at $35,000 versus Waymo’s $130,000-plus. Over 50 cities greenlight testing; governments subsidize, approve fast. Pony.ai’s seventh-gen validates economics in chaos like Guangzhou traffic. WeRide snags world’s first city-level driverless fare permit in Abu Dhabi. But hurdles loom. Didi grips 70% ride-hail market share, loath to share users. Robotaxi firms build apps or tie up with minors. Beijing, Shanghai tighten scrutiny.
Still, the math tempts. Goldman assumes driver retirements—four million by 2035—open doors. Fares undercut humans once scaled. CMC Markets pegged market at $47 billion by 2035, 700x from 2025’s $54 million. CMC Markets. Earlier projections eyed 474,000 units by 2030, 25% penetration.
Global race heats. Chinese trios partner Uber for Middle East rollout. WeRide, Pony.ai push Luxembourg, Seoul, Dubai. Baidu eyes Europe. Waymo logs 450,000 weekly U.S. rides, but China’s fleet density surges. Goldman now forecasts Chinese operators dominating abroad. Stocks reacted: Pony up 8.2%, WeRide 3.5% post-note, per X chatter from Folly Nine Capital. X (Folly Nine Capital).
Break-even assumptions hold key. 21 trips. $2.8 fares. City profits by ’26. Scale tips it. Overseas buffers domestic squeeze. WeRide’s Middle East lead? Riyadh live now. Pony’s Guangzhou win? Blueprint for export.
Investors watch Q1 earnings soon. Pony’s fare revenue soared 800% YoY last check; WeRide’s robotaxi slice doubled to 22%. Baidu’s 1.4 million Q1 rides, up 75%. Validation in real time. China’s robotaxi push tests commercialization at warp speed—fleets, profits, borders. Goldman bets yes.
WebProNews is an iEntry Publication