Costco’s Earnings Surge Ignites Retail Rally Amid Tariff Fears

Costco crushed Q1 2026 earnings with 8% sales growth to $58.5 billion and strong membership fees, beating estimates amid holiday records. Analysts maintain Buy ratings despite valuation worries.
Costco’s Earnings Surge Ignites Retail Rally Amid Tariff Fears
Written by Corey Blackwell

Costco Wholesale Corp. delivered a standout fiscal first-quarter performance, exceeding Wall Street expectations and underscoring the resilience of its membership-driven model even as broader retail pressures mount. The Issaquah, Washington-based retailer reported net sales of $58.5 billion for the quarter ended Nov. 24, an 8% increase from the prior year, topping analysts’ forecasts of $57.9 billion, according to data from CNBC.

Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip highlighted the company’s robust holiday momentum during the earnings call, noting comparable sales growth of 6.1% excluding gasoline and currency impacts. Membership fees, a cornerstone of Costco’s profitability, rose 8.3% to $1.24 billion, reflecting sustained renewal rates above 90%. Earnings per share came in at $4.04, surpassing estimates of $3.96, as detailed in live coverage by 24/7 Wall St..

The results prompted TD Cowen to maintain its Buy rating, with analyst Oliver Mulhall citing “strong earnings and growth” in a note, per Investing.com.

Robust Sales Fuel Membership Momentum

U.S. comparable sales climbed 5.9%, Canada saw 7.4% growth, and other international markets expanded 9.2%, with e-commerce surging 19.2%. These figures reflect Costco’s ability to draw shoppers seeking value amid inflation concerns. Fox Business reported record holiday sales, including massive pizza pie volumes, signaling peak-season strength in its coverage.

Chief Executive Ron Vachris emphasized traffic increases during the quarter, attributing gains to everyday essentials and seasonal items. Net income reached $1.79 billion, up from $1.59 billion a year earlier. TipRanks noted Costco “kicked off Fiscal 2026 strong,” with sales and profitability beating estimates in its analysis.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating post-earnings, pointing to favorable consumer trends, as covered by Investing.com.

Navigating Valuation Pressures

Despite the beat, shares dipped in after-hours trading, reflecting concerns over a lofty valuation trading at 52 times forward earnings. The Motley Fool questioned where the stock heads next, citing potential headwinds in its outlook. Forbes previewed the report warning of a key test for the stock amid membership growth scrutiny.

Analysts at UBS maintained a Buy ahead of results, praising the setup, per Proactive Investors in its report. Benzinga flagged expectations for a potential beat, which materialized.

Costco’s prior fiscal year results provide context, with fourth-quarter sales up 8% to $84.4 billion, as announced on its investor site in September. Finviz confirmed the Q1 surpass in its snapshot.

Strategic Edges in Uncertain Times

Executives addressed potential tariff impacts from proposed U.S. policies, with Mr. Millerchip stating Costco sources globally but monitors costs closely. Posts on X echoed analyst optimism, with users highlighting membership fee hikes and traffic gains fueling the blowout.

Benzinga detailed pre-earnings anticipation, noting executive pay and insider trends in its primer. The quarter’s performance reinforces Costco’s defensive positioning, with low churn and high-volume bargaining power.

Looking ahead, guidance points to continued expansion, including new warehouses and e-commerce investments. Industry insiders view this as validation of Costco’s moat, even as competitors grapple with shifting dynamics.

Analyst Views and Market Ripples

Post-earnings upgrades proliferated, with TD Cowen and Goldman Sachs underscoring growth durability. X sentiment leaned bullish, citing blowout sales and executive poise on macro risks.

Forbes noted pre-report valuation tests in its analysis. Costco’s formula—bulk buying, exclusive memberships, and treasure-hunt merchandising—continues to outperform peers.

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