Rick Santelli’s voice crackled over CNBC airwaves Thursday morning. “Initial jobless claims… hitting the wires at 189,000! Wow!” The veteran markets reporter paused, then doubled down. “That is truly incredible. We’re looking at levels truly that we probably haven’t seen since the late ’60s. This is very, very incredible.”
Seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ending April 25 tumbled 26,000 to 189,000, the Labor Department reported. Economists polled by Moneywise via Yahoo Finance had penciled in 212,000. The four-week moving average slid to 207,500. Bloomberg pegged it as the lowest since 1969.
Claims like these track layoffs weekly. Fewer filings mean companies cling to workers. A resilient sign amid oil spikes and global jitters.
Santelli didn’t stop there. He pivoted to personal income and spending, fresh from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. “Income up six-tenths—double expectations—and that would be the best level since the summer of ’25, July to be specific.” Personal income climbed $149.2 billion, or 0.6%, in March. Disposable personal income rose $142.5 billion, also 0.6%. Consumption expenditures jumped $195.4 billion, or 0.9%, matching forecasts but echoing the 1% gain from late 2024. Santelli called spending “pretty robust.” America runs on consumption. These numbers fuel it.
Labor’s Quiet Strength Persists
Context matters. The labor market hums in “low hire, low fire” mode, as Reuters noted in the same Moneywise report. Employers trim cautiously. Risks linger—inflation, surging oil, overseas tensions. Yet claims cratered anyway. Continuing claims dipped to 1.785 million, per recent updates.
But. Inflation shadows the party. BEA data showed the PCE price index at 0.7% monthly, 3.5% yearly in March—above the Fed’s 2% goal. Core PCE hit 3.2% annually, the highest since late 2023. Wage pressures mount too. Employment cost index rose 0.9%, topping estimates.
Santelli’s outburst captured markets’ split reaction. Stocks flirted with records. ISM manufacturing expanded at 52.7. Q1 GDP logged 2.0%, shy of 2.2% calls but a rebound. Core capex orders beat with +3.3%. Tight labor clashes with sticky prices. Fed watchers eye Kevin Warsh’s May 15 start. Markets bet cuts. Data resists.
Initial claims haven’t sunk this low since Marvin Gaye topped charts with “I Heard It Through the Grapevine.” Back then, unemployment hovered under 4%. Today’s rate? Around 4.3% in March, per BLS echoes. But claims scream employers hoard talent.
And spending? That 0.9% PCE lift split across goods ($132.6 billion) and services ($62.9 billion). Savings rate held at 3.6%. Households spend freely. Income gains outpace some forecasts, offsetting Medicaid tweaks in prior months.
Santelli knows the drill. He’s ranted from Chicago’s trading floor for decades. This time, raw surprise broke through. “How does up nine-tenths compare? Well, you’d have to go to the last quarter of ’24, when it was up 1%. And we are a consumption economy. That is pretty good news.”
Implications ripple. Strong claims data dulls recession fears. But paired with hot inflation, it tests Fed patience. Rate cuts? Tougher sell now. Businesses face $106 Brent crude, Iran peace feelers notwithstanding. Labor holds firm.
California added 28,700 jobs in March, dropping unemployment to 5.3%, Los Angeles Times reported. Florida’s rate climbed to 4.7%. National picture? Resilient core.
So what next? Friday’s payrolls loom. Expectations hover. If claims stay suppressed, nonfarm adds could surprise. Santelli’s “wow” echoes a market refusing to crack. Labor defies odds. For now.
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