In the annals of tech history, few stories rival Cisco Systems Inc.’s dramatic rise and fall during the dot-com era. At its peak in March 2000, Cisco’s stock hit an all-time high of $80.06 per share, making it the most valuable company in the world with a market capitalization exceeding $500 billion. But the bubble burst, and the stock plummeted, losing nearly 90% of its value by 2002. Now, over two decades later, Cisco’s shares are finally flirting with those lofty heights again, surpassing the dot-com peak amid the artificial intelligence frenzy. This resurgence, however, is raising alarms about a potential repeat of history.

According to a recent analysis by Business Insider, Cisco’s stock has remained essentially flat since the dot-com bubble’s peak, while the S&P 500 has surged about 350%. This stark contrast underscores the long shadow of the 2000 crash. Yet, as of November 2025, Cisco’s shares have climbed to around $77.38, exceeding its 2000 high, fueled by booming demand for AI infrastructure. This milestone, reported by Chosun, is stoking fears that the current AI rally might be another bubble in the making.

The Echoes of 2000

The dot-com bubble was characterized by irrational exuberance, with investors pouring money into internet-related companies regardless of fundamentals. Cisco, as a key provider of networking equipment, rode this wave to unprecedented heights. Revenue exploded from $1.9 billion in 1995 to $18.9 billion in 2000, but the company overproduced inventory, leading to a sharp downturn when demand evaporated. A Reddit discussion from 2022, still relevant today, highlights why Cisco never fully recovered: its growth slowed as the internet matured, and competition intensified.

Fast forward to 2025, and parallels are striking. Former Cisco CEO John Chambers, speaking to Fortune, noted, “There are a lot of parallels but there are also some spectacular differences,” emphasizing that AI is advancing at five times the speed of the internet boom. Chambers warns of job destruction outpacing creation, drawing direct lines to the dot-com era’s overoptimism.

AI Fuels the Resurgence

Cisco’s recent earnings paint a picture of revival. In its Q1 FY 2026 report on November 13, 2025, the company reported revenue of $14.88 billion, beating estimates, with earnings per share at $1.00. Networking revenue jumped 15% year-over-year, driven by AI server investments from hyperscalers. As detailed in a post-earnings analysis by TS2.Tech, Cisco raised its full-year guidance to $61 billion, sending shares soaring over 7% in a single day.

This AI-driven demand has positioned Cisco as a key player in the infrastructure space. Orders from cloud providers hit $1.3 billion, according to updates shared on X by market analysts like Saemin Ahn, who noted the surge signals late-cycle AI investments. Bloomberg reported on November 12, 2025, that Cisco is approaching its dot-com peak, with passing it hinging on sustained AI growth, as per Bloomberg.

Warnings from the Past

Goldman Sachs strategists have identified five warning signs from the dot-com bubble that are flashing in today’s market, including extreme valuations and concentrated gains. In a November 10, 2025, note covered by Business Insider, they point to how the market flashed similar signals before the 2000 crash. AI stocks, much like dot-com darlings, are dominating: 75% of S&P 500 gains, 80% of profits, and 90% of capex are tied to AI, as per Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett in Fortune.

Economist warnings amplify these concerns. A July 2025 article in Tom’s Hardware quoted experts claiming the AI bubble could be worse than dot-com, with overvaluations potentially leading to trillions in losses. On X, users like Sridhar Vembu from 2023 echoed this, stating Cisco’s valuation dropped from $600 billion on $6 billion revenue to $200 billion on $50 billion, illustrating bubble bursts’ long-term pain.

The Boxmakers’ Revenge

During the dot-com era, companies like Cisco, Dell, and others were derisively called “boxmakers” as investors abandoned hardware for software plays post-crash. But the AI boom is marking their revenge, as noted in a September 2025 piece by CNBC. Cisco’s pivot to AI networking gear, including Ethernet solutions for data centers, is driving this turnaround.

Recent sentiment on X, from users like Dan Niles in August 2025, highlights AI orders rising to over $800 million quarterly, exceeding initial guidance. This has analysts from JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo raising price targets to $80-$90, as per posts and reports like those from Jed Hickman on X.

Navigating the AI Crossroads

Cisco’s leadership is optimistic. CEO Chuck Robbins has emphasized the company’s role in AI infrastructure, with hyperscaler orders accelerating. However, challenges remain: security revenue grew only 9% due to U.S. federal budget cuts, as Niles pointed out. Broader market concerns include overcapacity risks, reminiscent of Cisco’s 2000 inventory glut.

Investors are watching closely. A November 17, 2025, article in Business Insider Africa frames Cisco’s 25-year comeback as the ultimate cautionary tale, noting events since 2000 that highlight market volatility. As AI hype builds, the question is whether Cisco can sustain its gains or if history will repeat.

Industry Implications Ahead

For industry insiders, Cisco’s trajectory offers lessons in resilience and adaptation. The company’s acquisitions, like Splunk, bolster its AI and security offerings, positioning it against rivals like Nvidia. Yet, as Chambers told Fortune, the speed of AI means disruptions could be more severe.

Market watchers on X, including Anand Iyer reflecting on his time at Cisco during the bust, argue that today’s boom feels different but caution against complacency. With Cisco’s stock now at 25-year highs, as per Biztoc and Rollingout, the tech sector stands at a pivotal moment, balancing innovation with the ghosts of bubbles past.