China controls the processing of nearly every mineral that keeps data centers humming and electric vehicles rolling. One American-backed venture now bets the ocean floor holds centuries of supply with far less geopolitical risk.
The stakes sit two miles down in the Pacific. Potato-shaped rocks called polymetallic nodules rest on the seabed. They contain manganese, iron, nickel, cobalt, copper and traces of rare earth elements. Demand for these metals surges as hyperscalers spend hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure. A single Microsoft data center required more than 2,000 tons of copper. Yet land-based sources remain concentrated in places where China holds sway.
Beijing refines 19 of the 20 most strategic minerals. Its average market share reaches 70 percent, according to the International Energy Agency. Without fresh options the United States risks long-term dependence. That exposure could give China decisive influence over American technology and defense supply chains.
President Trump noticed. In 2025 he signed an executive order pushing federal agencies to explore and develop deep-sea resources. Several U.S.-linked companies responded. None draws more attention than American Ocean Minerals. The firm is finalizing a $1 billion all-stock merger with Odyssey Marine Exploration. It recruited former Rio Tinto chief executive Tom Albanese to lead the effort.
American Ocean Minerals holds stakes in two entities with exploration licenses inside the Cook Islands exclusive economic zone. That swath of Pacific ocean covers 770,000 square miles. The area, nearly five times the size of California, contains an estimated 6.7 billion metric tons of nodules. Included are 20 million metric tons of cobalt. The figure equals roughly 100 times the Democratic Republic of Congo’s annual output, the current top producer where Chinese interests dominate processing.
“This could be hundreds of years of endowment,” Albanese told Fortune. He added that the zone appears “sprinkled with nodules.” The claim sounds bold. Yet the Cook Islands Seabed Minerals Authority backs the resource estimates with years of survey data.
No commercial deep-sea mining operates anywhere today. All current supply comes from terrestrial mines. The International Seabed Authority, which oversees activity in international waters, still debates its mining code. A March session ended without agreement. Meanwhile 40 nations support a moratorium. Some Pacific island states push for an outright ban.
Scientists voice loud concerns. An expedition by the Ocean Exploration Trust near the Cook Islands last year encountered “so many creatures we know absolutely nothing about.” A study from the American Museum of Natural History projected that one mining machine would cut animal abundance by 37 percent in a comparable Pacific zone. Sediment plumes, noise and habitat disruption could ripple across ecosystems that recover slowly, if at all.
Proponents counter that land mining often destroys forests, pollutes rivers and relies on practices including forced labor in parts of central Africa. They argue nodules sit loose on the surface. Collection might disturb less volume than open-pit operations. Albanese acknowledges the trade-offs. “I see the merits of continued engagement with China,” he said, “but also see the risks of being overly dependent on the Chinese industry for any part of critical supply chains.”
The Pacific Becomes a Strategic Chessboard
China moved earlier and faster in the region. In February 2025 the Cook Islands elevated ties with Beijing to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The local seabed authority signed a five-year memorandum of understanding with China’s Ministry of Natural Resources for joint research, mapping and resource studies. The pact built on nearly two decades of Chinese surveys in South Pacific waters dating to 2009, The Diplomat reported in late April.
Beijing already holds more exploration contracts with the International Seabed Authority than any other nation. Its research vessels map vast areas. Some experts suspect dual-use potential. Detailed seafloor knowledge aids both mineral hunts and submarine navigation. In March CNN highlighted how Chinese activity in the Cook Islands raises questions about military as well as commercial motives.
The United States answered with its own diplomacy. An August 2025 joint statement with the Cook Islands committed both sides to “gold standard science” and transparent management of seabed resources. Washington followed with a framework agreement on critical minerals. Yet Pacific analysts warn bilateral deals favor big powers and leave small island nations at a disadvantage. Local environmental groups expressed alarm that the Cook Islands could become caught between Washington and Beijing.
Recent weeks brought fresh signals. In April Reuters detailed the American Ocean Minerals merger with Odyssey, creating a Nasdaq-listed platform focused on Cook Islands and Clarion-Clipperton Zone claims. Japan accelerated its own seabed programs to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies and signed research pacts with the United States. The New York Times reported in late April that China published new deep-sea mineral atlases, underscoring its mapping edge and claims in disputed waters.
Regulatory momentum in Washington continues. The Trump administration created a new Marine Minerals Administration inside the Interior Department to oversee both offshore energy and seabed mining. It streamlined permitting under older statutes. Companies including The Metals Company filed applications for exploration and recovery permits, hoping for decisions within a year.
Still the Cook Islands itself has extended exploration licenses but paused decisions on commercial extraction until at least 2032. It stresses science first. John Parianos of the Cook Islands Seabed Minerals Authority told the Stimson Center in April that the nation aims for transparent, comprehensive rules. Whether that pace satisfies American urgency remains uncertain.
Global demand projections add pressure. The International Energy Agency forecasts that needs for nickel, cobalt and rare earths could more than double by 2040. AI growth, electric vehicles and renewable energy all compete for the same atoms. Diversified supply suddenly looks less like an environmental luxury and more like a strategic necessity.
Critics fear a race to the bottom. Environmental organizations and some Pacific networks argue rushed extraction could inflict irreversible harm before baseline studies finish. They point to the slow growth of deep-sea life. A nodule field scraped clean today might stay barren for centuries. Others note that without agreed international standards, unilateral action by the United States or China could undermine the International Seabed Authority and set dangerous precedents.
Yet the alternative feels equally uncomfortable. Continued heavy reliance on Chinese refining leaves supply chains exposed to export controls, price swings and political tension. Land mines in unstable regions carry their own human and ecological costs. The ocean option sits in the middle, promising volume but demanding careful execution.
Albanese and his backers believe technology and targeted collection can limit damage. They point to Odyssey’s decades of offshore experience and plans for precision harvesting. Investors including television personality Mike Rowe have placed bets. The merged company aims to build one of the largest portfolios of underwater deposits.
The coming years will test whether such promises hold. Commercial lifting of nodules at scale has never been proven economically or environmentally at the depths involved. Processing technology for these unusual ores remains immature. Environmental baselines for the Cook Islands zone need expansion. And diplomatic balancing acts between Washington, Beijing and Pacific capitals grow more delicate by the month.
One fact stands clear. The potato-sized rocks on the Pacific floor no longer represent abstract scientific curiosities. They have become tokens in a contest over technological primacy, resource security and ocean governance. How nations collect them, or whether they leave most untouched, will shape supply chains for decades.
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