SAN FRANCISCO—OpenAI’s meteoric rise took center stage Thursday as Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar told CNBC’s David Faber that $11 billion in revenue this year is “definitely in the realm of possibility.” The exclusive interview, marking OpenAI’s first public statement since Elon Musk’s $97.4 billion unsolicited bid for the company’s nonprofit arm, underscores a pivotal moment for the AI startup.

With 400 million weekly active users, a doubling of enterprise customers, and a potential $40 billion investment from SoftBank, OpenAI is positioning itself as the defining force in AI’s next era—but Musk’s moves and industry competition loom large.

A Revenue Rocket: $11 Billion in Sight

Friar’s projection, aired on CNBC, signals OpenAI’s confidence in sustaining its breakneck growth. “We did our first billion in revenue two years ago,” she told Faber. “If you look at companies that define their era—like Meta, Amazon—the year after, they grew close to 100%. We are over three, actually. And that momentum is continuing.” Posts on X, including @subh10’s note of OpenAI projecting $11.6 billion in 2025 revenue, echo this optimism, while on post cautioned that OpenAI still faces $8.5 billion in annual losses, projecting a $44 billion deficit before profitability in 2029.

OpenAI’s user base, now at 400 million weekly actives—up 33% from 300 million in December, per Friar—drives this ambition. “It’s about 5% of the world’s population now using OpenAI every single week,” she said, citing uses from dinner recipes to vacation planning. The enterprise segment, with 2 million paying customers (doubled since September), bolsters this, per @GS_CapSF’s post on X. Friar emphasized, “There’s huge value here. Consumers and enterprises are seeing ways to make their lives easier.”

Yet, the road to $11 billion isn’t assured. CNBC reported in September 2024 that OpenAI expected $3.7 billion in revenue and $5 billion in losses last year, with an $11.6 billion revenue target for 2025. Friar’s cautious optimism—“We have not given out our revenue numbers, but thank you for pushing on that”—suggests internal targets may exceed public estimates, fueling investor interest. “In terms of a multiple to pay for stock like ours, there’s incredible interest at the moment,” she added, noting OpenAI’s potential $300 billion valuation with SoftBank’s looming $40 billion investment.

Musk’s Gambit: A Distraction or Disruption?

Friar’s interview comes amid Musk’s aggressive maneuvers. On February 10, 2025, Musk, leading a consortium including xAI, offered $97.4 billion for OpenAI’s nonprofit arm, aiming to block its for-profit transition. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman rejected it, quipping on X, “No thank you, but we will buy Twitter for $9.74 billion if you want,” per CNBC and Fox Business reports. Musk, suing OpenAI for breach of contract, called Altman “Scam Altman” on X, intensifying their feud.

Friar dismissed Musk’s bid as a nonissue. “We are eyes on the prize, which is, how do we keep growing our business,” she told Faber. “You see it in our numbers.” This aligns with a post on X quoting Friar denying OpenAI discourages rival AI investments, suggesting Musk’s actions are competitive noise. Altman told Bloomberg on February 11, “I think it’s to slow down a competitor and catch up with his thing,” framing Musk’s bid as a distraction.

Stargate’s Shadow: AI’s $500 Billion Bet

OpenAI’s growth ties to Stargate, President Donald Trump’s $500 billion AI infrastructure project announced in January 2025, partnering OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle. Friar called it “tremendous to get on stage with President Trump and show we’re investing here in the United States,” per the CNBC transcript, aiming for global AI deployment. Yet, Musk doubts its feasibility, tweeting, “They don’t actually have the money,” per The Guardian and CNN, citing SoftBank’s limited cash.

Friar’s confidence—“We’re going to look back at this interview in a couple of years and smile at how small our ambition was”—contrasts with Musk’s skepticism. Trump’s White House backs Stargate, but Musk’s influence as a top Trump adviser raises questions. Friar, speaking at Reuters NEXT in December 2024, trusted Musk to prioritize national interest, per U.S. News, but their rivalry complicates Stargate’s rollout.

Commoditization Concerns: Can OpenAI Stay Unique?

Faber pressed Friar on AI’s commoditization risk, noting similar outputs from ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and xAI’s Grok 3. “We are so far from being a commodity industry,” Friar countered. “We’re talking about human-level intelligence, not bare metal compute.” She cited OpenAI’s “pound, pound, pound” of weekly innovations—like Deep Research, an AI task worker—and its hyperscaler status, buying compute at scale. “Not that many companies are going to be able to invest to keep up the pace of innovation,” she said, pointing to AWS’s 38% operating margins as proof.

In October 2024, Friar predicted, “AGI is closer than most think,” reinforcing this. But competitors like DeepSeek and Anthropic, challenge OpenAI’s lead, with Anthropic eyeing $3.7 billion in 2025 revenue. Friar’s defense—“Our numbers prove there’s a reinforcement cycle here”—leans on OpenAI’s 400 million users and enterprise growth to fend off commoditization fears.

Investor Appetite and the Path Forward

OpenAI’s valuation talks, potentially reaching $300 billion with SoftBank, reflect Friar’s pitch: “Investors look not just at our out-year growth rate… but what could this company look like over the next five years?” Posts on X, like @unusual_whales’ note of the $40 billion SoftBank deal, signal frenzy, but Friar’s $11 billion target raises stakes. “If you’re even at $10 billion, that’s only 30 times revenues of $300 billion value—less than Palantir,” Faber noted, highlighting OpenAI’s premium multiple.

Yet, capital intensity looms. Friar acknowledged OpenAI’s compute ambitions, but losses persist—$8.5 billion annually, before a projected $100 billion revenue in 2029. Stargate’s $500 billion goal, if realized, could strain resources, especially with Musk’s doubts. Friar’s vision—“What’s it going to take in terms of spend to push this out globally?”—suggests AI’s future demands trillion-dollar investments, per her CNBC remarks.

The Big Picture

OpenAI’s $11 billion revenue ambition, as articulated by CFO Sarah Friar, represents a transformative opportunity for CFOs navigating AI’s economic frontier—but it also underscores a high-stakes balancing act. Friar’s confidence in sustaining triple-digit growth—“We over three [times] actually, and that momentum is continuing,” she told CNBC—resonates with CFOs eyeing AI’s potential to drive enterprise value. However, the company’s $8.5 billion annual losses and a projected $44 billion deficit before profitability in 2029, per September 2024 CNBC reports, demand rigorous financial scrutiny. CFOs must assess whether OpenAI’s premium valuation—potentially $300 billion with SoftBank’s $40 billion deal— justifies the capital intensity, especially with competitors like Anthropic and xAI scaling rapidly.

Musk’s $97.4 billion bid for OpenAI’s nonprofit arm, rejected last week, adds another layer of complexity for CFOs. While Friar dismissed it as a distraction—“We are eyes on the prize, which is, how do we keep growing our business,” she told David Faber—it could signal competitive threats or valuation volatility. OpenAI’s differentiation hinges on pace, but CFOs must model the impact of Musk’s rivalry, including xAI’s Grok 3 launch and Tesla’s AI ambitions. Friar’s Stargate partnership, aiming for a $500 billion AI infrastructure spend, per her CNBC remarks, could strain OpenAI’s finances further, particularly if SoftBank’s capital commitments falter, as Musk skeptically tweeted, per The Guardian.

For CFOs, the real question is ROI. OpenAI’s 400 million users and 2 million enterprise customers offer a massive addressable market, but commoditization risks—raised by Faber and countered by Friar’s “human-level intelligence” argument—require vigilance. Friar’s hyperscaler strategy, buying compute at scale to avoid commoditization, aligns with AWS’s 38% margins, per her CNBC comments, but CFOs must weigh this against OpenAI’s $8.5 billion annual compute costs, per @GS_CapSF’s post. As X debates intensify, CFOs must decide whether to bet on OpenAI’s growth trajectory or diversify AI investments, balancing innovation with fiscal discipline in an era where AI’s financial frontier could redefine corporate balance sheets.