Cathie Wood Sees End of “Rolling Recession,” Forecasts Productivity-Driven Growth

Ark Invest’s CEO and Chief Investment Officer Cathie Wood believes the U.S. economy is emerging from what she describes as a “rolling recession” that has persisted for the past three years, signaling a shift toward a productivity-driven growth phase powered by artificial intelligence and technological innovation.

“We’ve been in [a rolling recession] for the last three years since the Fed [raised] rates,” Wood said during an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “We got a negative quarter in the first quarter, potentially in the second quarter as well… but we actually think we’re at the end of this rolling recession.”

Wood’s optimistic outlook comes amid recent market volatility and concerns about tariffs, though she views the current administration’s trade policies as ultimately beneficial. “What [President Trump] is looking for… is to reduce tax rates as much as possible around the world,” Wood explained. “This is a global tax cut. This is a good thing.”

The innovation-focused investor highlighted emerging productivity gains, particularly in the government sector, as evidence of economic transformation. She cited a video featuring FDA leadership discussing how generative AI has reduced work that previously took days to mere minutes. “There’s a lot of productivity, I think, evolving in the ecosystem,” Wood noted.

This productivity surge, according to Wood, will have significant macroeconomic implications. “I think we’re going to see a lot more productivity-driven growth, which means inflation is going to be much lower than expected, which is going to be very capital friendly,” she said.

Wood also reaffirmed her bullish stance on Bitcoin, maintaining a 2030 base case target of “$700 to $750,000” per coin, with a bull case scenario of $1.5 million. She attributed this projection to Bitcoin’s potential to capture market share from gold as a store of value, increased institutional adoption, and emerging market applications. “We think we have miles to go,” Wood emphasized, noting that institutional investors are “just testing the waters” in cryptocurrency markets.

Regarding Tesla, another of Ark’s high-conviction investments, Wood disclosed a five-year price target of $2,600 per share. Her confidence in this projection has increased with Tesla’s plans to commercialize robotaxis, though she noted this forecast doesn’t fully account for the company’s humanoid robot initiatives—a market Wood estimates at “$26 trillion revenue opportunity” over the next 5-10 years.

Wood explained Tesla’s competitive advantage stems from its simultaneous innovation across three critical platforms: robotics (including robotaxis), energy storage, and artificial intelligence. This technological convergence positions Tesla favorably against global competitors, including those in China, which Wood characterized as “number 2 to 10” in the humanoid robot space, according to Elon Musk.

As part of Ark’s investment strategy, Wood recently increased the firm’s positions in several technology companies, including Nvidia, AMD, and CRISPR Therapeutics, reflecting her continued confidence in innovation-driven growth despite market fluctuations.

With markets recovering from recent lows and technology companies advancing capabilities in AI and automation, Wood’s perspective suggests a transition from economic uncertainty to a new phase of growth powered by technological transformation and productivity enhancements.