California’s bold push to impose a one-time 5% wealth tax on its roughly 200 billionaires is encountering fierce headwinds, with a fresh poll revealing softening support among voters even as proponents race to qualify the measure for the November ballot. The initiative, backed by labor unions and health-care advocates, aims to extract up to $100 billion for public services but faces mounting opposition amid concerns over economic fallout and wealthy residents fleeing the state.

The poll, commissioned by opponents and released Tuesday, shows initial backing at 48% favorability against 38% opposition. Yet support erodes to a slim 44%-43% margin after voters hear balanced arguments from both sides, signaling a tough fight in a state where ballot measures often hinge on late-campaign persuasion.

Polling Reveals Vulnerability

“This is an uphill battle,” said pollster Joe Cotchett of EMC Research, whose survey of 800 likely voters carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The findings, detailed in CNBC, underscore how the proposal’s novelty—a tax on net worth exceeding $50 million, retroactive to January 1, 2026—could sway independents and moderates wary of punishing success.

Proponents, led by the Service Employees International Union United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW) and AIDS Healthcare Foundation, have collected over 800,000 signatures since launching in October, surpassing the 546,651 needed by January 22 for ballot placement. The measure would hit assets like stocks, real estate and yachts, exempting primary residences and promising funds for education, housing and health care. Yet critics, including tech titans and business groups, decry it as a wealth grab that ignores California’s $68 billion budget deficit and record homelessness.

Billionaire Backlash Fuels Departures

Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya highlighted the scale of the exodus on X, posting that “Collectively, the amount of Billionaire wealth that has left California in the last month (!) is now in excess of $700B.” His estimate, echoed across posts on X, points to a preemptive flight triggered by the retroactive clause, which incentivizes residency changes before year-end.

The Los Angeles Times cataloged notable exits, including Oracle founder Larry Ellison shifting his primary residence to Nevada years ago, and more recent moves by figures like Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings and Salesforce’s Marc Benioff considering options. Forbes reported in Forbes that legal challenges loom, with experts questioning enforceability under California’s constitution prohibiting gifts of public funds and federal due process concerns.

Retroactive Trigger Sparks Chaos

The tax’s January 1, 2026, start date—designed to block escapes—has backfired, compressing timelines for residency shifts. Jason Lemkin of SaaStr posted on X: “By making the deadline tomorrow rather than November 2026, they’ve ensured that…” the rush to leave intensifies. Polymarket odds for ballot qualification hit 71% earlier this month, per X posts, but voter sentiment sours as awareness grows.

California’s tax authority, the Franchise Tax Board, would administer collections, but enforcement against mobile assets poses hurdles. The New York Times noted confusion over valuations, with proponents claiming $2 trillion in taxable wealth but Palihapitiya pegging the current pot at $1.3 trillion and falling. Historical precedents, like Massachusetts’ failed millionaire tax in 2002, offer cautionary tales of revenue shortfalls post-migration.

Union Drive Meets Business Fury

SEIU-UHW’s campaign, seeded with $5 million from backers including Michael Weinstein of AIDS Healthcare Foundation, frames the tax as fairness after billionaires’ wealth surged 80% since 2020. CalMatters detailed in CalMatters how groups target homelessness and Medi-Cal gaps, projecting $20 billion annually if extended, though it’s pitched as one-time.

Opposition coalesces around the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and tech PACs, funding the EMC poll and TV ads warning of job losses. New York Post cited a separate survey showing voter disdain, aligning with CNBC data. As signatures pour in, legal filings could delay certification, per election experts.

Revenue Projections Under Fire

Advocates tout $100 billion yield, but skeptics invoke dynamic scoring: Elon Musk’s 2020 Texas move cost California $11 billion in income taxes alone. With $700 billion already relocated, per Palihapitiya’s X tally, the haul shrinks. The Archive.ph captured a pro-wealthy poll reinforcing divides, as Democratic supermajorities in Sacramento eye alternatives like parcel taxes.

X chatter amplifies divides, with posts from Jake Can72 likening it to federal income tax creep and Sean Frank noting top earners’ 13.3% effective rates. Governor Gavin Newsom, facing reelection pressures, has stayed neutral, but allies whisper veto threats if legislated.

Ballot Path Grows Thorny

Qualification remains feasible, but passage demands 50% plus one vote amid ranked-choice fatigue from Proposition 1’s narrow win. CNBC’s analysis flags independents’ swing, with 52% opposing post-info. As campaigns gear up, California’s fiscal woes—$73 billion deficit projected—heighten stakes for this radical redistribution experiment.