Broadcom Q4 Revenue Soars 28% on AI Boom, Shares Drop on 2026 Outlook

Broadcom's Q4 earnings beat estimates with $18B revenue (up 28%) and surging AI sales, but shares dropped 10% on guidance signaling slower 2026 growth and margin pressures from AI investments. Despite strong hyperscaler deals and optimism, investor concerns highlight profitability challenges in the AI boom.
Broadcom Q4 Revenue Soars 28% on AI Boom, Shares Drop on 2026 Outlook
Written by Lucas Greene

Broadcom Inc.’s latest earnings report has sent ripples through the semiconductor industry, highlighting the volatile intersection of artificial intelligence hype and investor expectations. The company, a key player in custom chips for AI applications, reported fourth-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street estimates, yet its shares tumbled in after-hours trading. This paradox underscores broader concerns about profitability in the AI boom, as Broadcom navigates massive investments in next-generation technology amid slowing growth projections for 2026.

In its fiscal fourth quarter ending November 3, 2025, Broadcom posted revenue of $18.0 billion, a 28% increase year-over-year, driven largely by a surge in AI-related semiconductor sales. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.42, beating analysts’ consensus of $1.39. AI revenue specifically jumped 74% to $6.5 billion, contributing significantly to the company’s semiconductor segment, which grew 35% to $11.1 billion. These figures reflect Broadcom’s strategic pivot toward custom accelerators, or XPUs, tailored for hyperscale clients like Alphabet Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc.

However, the stock’s decline—down as much as 10% in extended trading—stems from guidance that fell short of some investors’ lofty hopes. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Broadcom forecasted revenue of about $18.5 billion, aligning with estimates but signaling a potential deceleration in growth momentum. CEO Hock Tan emphasized during the earnings call that AI semiconductor revenue would double year-over-year to $8.2 billion in the current quarter, yet concerns lingered over gross margins dipping to around 64% due to the high costs of ramping up custom chip production.

AI Revenue Surge Amid Margin Pressures

Analysts point to the profitability squeeze as a primary culprit for the market’s reaction. Broadcom’s entry into the competitive AI chip arena, dominated by rivals like Nvidia Corp., requires enormous capital outlays for fabrication and design. According to a report from Business Insider, investors are wary of these investments eroding margins, especially as the company projects only mid-teens revenue growth for fiscal 2026, a step down from the 24% annual increase in 2025.

This outlook comes against a backdrop of booming demand for AI infrastructure. Broadcom has secured deals with major customers, including a revealed $10 billion contract with AI startup Anthropic, and hinted at a fifth hyperscaler joining its roster. Posts on X, formerly Twitter, from industry observers like analyst Beth Kindig highlight optimism around Broadcom’s AI revenue trajectory, noting it’s on track to hit $30 billion next year, potentially accelerating into 2026 through inference applications.

Yet, the absence of new major customer announcements in the earnings release disappointed some. As detailed in coverage from Sherwood News, CEO Tan’s revelation of Anthropic as the previously mysterious client was a highlight, but the lack of fresh names fueled speculation about market saturation or competitive pressures from players like Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

Strategic Shifts in Custom Silicon

Broadcom’s evolution from a traditional semiconductor firm to an AI powerhouse traces back to its acquisition of VMware Inc. in 2023, which bolstered its software offerings but also shifted focus toward high-margin AI hardware. The company’s custom ASIC business, designing application-specific integrated circuits for cloud giants, has become a cornerstone, with AI semis now accounting for over half of its semiconductor revenue.

In the earnings transcript shared by Investing.com, Tan outlined a total addressable market for AI semiconductors expanding to $60 billion to $90 billion by fiscal 2027, driven by deployments of million-accelerator clusters from clients like ByteDance Ltd., Google, and Meta. This vision positions Broadcom as a critical enabler in the AI ecosystem, supplying not just chips but also networking solutions essential for data center scalability.

Despite these positives, the stock’s 75% climb in 2025—pushing its market cap toward $1 trillion—has set a high bar. A live earnings update from Yahoo Finance noted that while the quarter beat expectations, the forward guidance introduced caution, with shares falling despite an upbeat AI demand forecast. This reaction mirrors broader market jitters about an AI “bubble,” where valuations outpace tangible returns on massive infrastructure spends.

Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics

Sentiment on platforms like X reveals a mix of enthusiasm and skepticism. Users, including options traders and market analysts, praised the 65% year-over-year AI revenue growth to $20 billion for fiscal 2025, viewing it as evidence of sustained demand. One post from a financial insights account highlighted Broadcom’s extended share repurchase program and a 10% dividend hike, signaling confidence in cash flow generation.

However, profitability concerns dominate discussions. Reuters reported in its analysis that the dip in quarterly margins stems directly from AI investments, making investors nervous about long-term sustainability. Broadcom’s gross margins for the semiconductor segment stood at 68% in the quarter, but the custom XPU ramp-up pressured overall figures, a point echoed in Reddit threads on r/stocks where users debated the trade-off between growth and earnings quality.

Comparisons to Nvidia are inevitable. While Nvidia’s GPUs dominate training workloads, Broadcom’s strength lies in custom inference chips, which are increasingly vital as AI models move from development to deployment. A CNBC article from CNBC noted that Broadcom’s AI chip sales are set to double in the current quarter, potentially outpacing peers in specific niches, yet the stock’s post-earnings slide suggests investors seek more aggressive growth narratives.

Broader Implications for the Semiconductor Sector

The earnings also spotlight Broadcom’s diversification efforts. Beyond AI, its infrastructure software segment, bolstered by VMware, grew 5% to $6.9 billion, providing a buffer against hardware volatility. Tan emphasized during the call that free cash flow surged 39% year-over-year, enabling a $50 billion share repurchase authorization extension and the dividend increase, moves that appeal to value-oriented investors.

Industry insiders are watching how Broadcom balances its AI ambitions with operational efficiency. As per a Yahoo Finance highlight in another report, the company’s record $37 billion in semiconductor revenue for 2025 underscores its scale, but the projected slowdown to 15% growth in 2026 raises questions about demand sustainability amid economic uncertainties.

Moreover, geopolitical factors loom large. With much of AI chip production reliant on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., supply chain risks could amplify margin pressures. X posts from semiconductor analysts like Sravan Kundojjala detailed the quarter’s metrics, noting custom accelerators more than doubled year-over-year, yet global trade tensions might constrain future expansions.

Future Outlook and Competitive Positioning

Looking ahead, Broadcom’s leadership sees AI as a multi-year growth driver. Tan’s comments on securing deals with two additional hyperscalers suggest pipeline strength, potentially alleviating concerns over customer concentration. The company’s focus on ethernet networking for AI clusters positions it uniquely, as data centers evolve to handle exascale computing demands.

Yet, the market’s immediate response indicates a recalibration of expectations. After a banner year, Broadcom’s valuation—trading at over 30 times forward earnings—demands flawless execution. Insights from X users, such as those tracking earnings calls, point to inference as a key accelerator for 2026 demand, potentially offsetting training-centric slowdowns.

In the broader context, Broadcom’s report serves as a bellwether for the AI supply chain. Rivals like Marvell Technology Inc. and Intel Corp. face similar margin dilemmas, as the rush to build AI infrastructure strains resources. As one X post from a market watcher put it, the AI semi market could reach $90 billion by 2027, but profitability will determine winners.

Navigating Uncertainty in AI Growth

Broadcom’s management remains bullish, projecting AI revenue to continue its upward trajectory. The company’s investments in next-gen XPUs, including collaborations with foundries like TSMC, aim to capture a larger share of the custom silicon market, estimated to grow exponentially as AI permeates industries from autonomous vehicles to healthcare.

Critics, however, argue that without diversified customer wins, Broadcom risks over-reliance on a handful of tech giants. The Sherwood News piece referenced earlier highlighted this “dearth of new major customers” as a drag on sentiment, even as the company beat top- and bottom-line estimates.

Ultimately, the post-earnings dip may represent a buying opportunity for long-term believers in AI’s transformative potential. With shares up 75% in 2025 despite the recent pullback, Broadcom’s story is one of resilience amid high-stakes innovation. As the semiconductor sector adapts to AI’s demands, the company’s ability to manage costs while scaling production will be pivotal.

Industry observers anticipate that upcoming quarters will clarify whether Broadcom can sustain its momentum. For now, the earnings underscore a familiar tension: explosive growth in emerging technologies often comes with growing pains, testing investor patience in an era of rapid change.

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