Bitcoin has traded near $77,000 in recent sessions. Bears who called for a deep correction look increasingly off base. One analyst who nailed the bottom at $60,000 now argues the pessimistic crowd missed the exhaustion of sellers and the power of large buyers stepping in at the worst sentiment levels in cryptocurrency history.
Taiki Maeda told viewers in a recent discussion that the Fear and Greed Index plunged to its lowest reading ever last month when Bitcoin touched $66,000. The reading came in lower than during the 3AC collapse, the Luna implosion or the 2020 COVID crash. “We hit the lowest fear and greed rating in the history of crypto’s existence last month at 66,000,” Maeda stated. And just as capitulation peaked, selling pressure ran dry. Months of liquidations had flushed out weak hands. What followed was a textbook reflexive rally.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. provided the spark. The company bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in March, $3.5 billion in April and another $2 billion in May. Those purchases created a feedback loop. Higher prices drew more buyers. Bears who kept shorting the dip found themselves on the wrong side of rapidly shifting momentum. The Yahoo Finance report captured Maeda’s conviction that the $60,000 level marked the cycle low.
But the story runs deeper than one analyst’s call. Recent data shows Bitcoin has climbed from roughly $63,000 to more than $80,000 in the past three months. Three technical signals now point toward $85,000 according to CoinDesk. ETF flows remain volatile yet institutional participation continues to reshape supply dynamics. Predictions for 2026 range widely. Some forecasts sit between $120,000 and $170,000 while bolder voices target $400,000. Even cautious voices see a floor well above previous bear market troughs.
Grayscale delivered its own rebuttal to bearish 2026 outlooks late last year. The firm rejected expectations of a prolonged two-to-three-year drawdown. Current price action instead fits normal bull-market moderation. “If You’re Expecting A Bitcoin Bear Market In 2026, You Have It Wrong, Grayscale Says,” Yahoo Finance reported in December. The moderation combined with growing market maturity supports a constructive path higher rather than a repeat of past brutal cycles.
Price predictions for the end of 2026 cluster around $77,000 to $80,000 under moderate growth assumptions yet many institutional desks see far more upside. Bernstein analysts called the bear case the weakest in history and stuck to a $150,000 target for 2026. They pointed to spot Bitcoin ETFs as a structural change that limits downside. A drop to $40,000 would represent a statistical 0.4 percentile event according to on-chain analyst James Check. Such an outcome would stand as a historic outlier.
Yet volatility refuses to vanish. Bitcoin futures traded between $76,650 and $81,895 in mid-May. The asset sits roughly 30 percent below its all-time high reached in late 2025. Some desks warn of consolidation between $60,000 and $75,000 if support breaks. Others see any dip as temporary. Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell recently described Bitcoin as increasingly attractive despite macro headwinds. The blend of constrained supply, ETF infrastructure and corporate treasury adoption keeps tilting the odds against prolonged bearish control.
Maeda’s portfolio reflects a broader shift in thinking. He calls Bitcoin, Zcash and Hyperliquid his “holy trinity.” Zcash acts as insurance against Bitcoin centralization risks, quantum computing threats and privacy erosion. The SEC dropped its case against the privacy coin in January. Shielded pool supply keeps rising. The token broke out on the monthly chart after nearly a decade of sideways action. Maeda added to his position aggressively. His average cost now sits near $500. “Zcash is insurance against Bitcoin,” he explained. “If Bitcoin goes up, Zcash will go up as well.”
Hyperliquid meanwhile dominates perpetual futures volume. Price discovery for oil during recent geopolitical flare-ups occurred on the platform. Traders from restricted jurisdictions use it to track pre-IPO moves. Daily open interest in real-world assets climbs. Revenue flows back to the HYPE token. No venture capital overhang. A generous airdrop and understated founder make the project easy to support. Maeda sees this as the future. The next leg higher will favor “player versus environment” assets where gains compound across participants rather than zero-sum meme plays or vaporware backed by venture capital.
The industry must shed its grift phase and return to cypherpunk roots if it wants to sustain higher valuations. That message echoes across several recent analyses. CNBC’s January roundup of 2026 forecasts captured the split. Targets ranged from $75,000 on the low end to $225,000 at the high end. Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex, sees Bitcoin in a high-volatility band between $75,000 and $150,000 with $110,000 as the center of gravity. Others remain far more bullish.
Current levels around $77,000 test key technical zones. Bulls defend $76,000 support while bears guard resistance near $82,000. ETF outflows have accelerated in spots yet overall institutional inflows since 2024 still dwarf prior cycles. On-chain metrics show long-term holders accumulating. Realized price floors continue to rise. A close above $82,000 would likely resume the upward trend according to several desks.
But risks remain. Macro uncertainty, regulatory delays and potential equity market corrections could pressure prices. A Bloomberg strategist warned of a possible $10,000 crash as recently as April though peers quickly labeled that scenario the weakest bear case on record. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may have evolved. The data increasingly suggests the old pattern of multi-year bear markets no longer applies with the same force.
So the bears keep calling for capitulation. The market keeps proving them wrong at each major low. Sentiment hit extremes. Sellers exhausted their supply. Large buyers stepped in with conviction. The result is a market that grinds higher even as headlines warn of impending doom. Whether Bitcoin reaches $85,000 in the near term or pushes toward six figures by year-end, the structural forces favor the bulls. The crowd that stayed bearish through the $60,000 bottom may soon find itself chasing once again.
Recent trading action reinforces the point. Bitcoin edged above $77,000 on Wednesday after a brief losing streak. Momentum indicators stay mixed but the bias leans constructive. Analysts continue to watch ETF flows, options positioning and corporate buying for the next directional cue. The consensus view among those who study the data closely has grown more optimistic. The bears, for now, remain on the defensive.
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