Against the backdrop of heightened trade tensions and a shifting global economic landscape, Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan has stepped into the policy debate, siding—at least in principle—with former President Donald Trump’s tariff-centered approach on trade.

Speaking to Bloomberg Television’s Sonali Basak at the Milken Institute Global Conference, Mr. Rowan outlined a nuanced perspective: tariffs, he said, are not inherently wrong as a lever of economic policy. Rather, uncertainty about their application, duration, and scope may prove more damaging to the U.S. economy than the tariffs themselves.

“We are the freest trading country in the world and have been since the end of World War Two,” Mr. Rowan said. “It is not clear to me that we have to be or that we should allow allies and strategic competitors to inhibit our access to their markets.”

Mr. Rowan’s comments come at a moment of renewed trade policy scrutiny. President Trump—who has made tariffs a key economic tool both during and after his tenure—has recently shifted rhetoric and policy on tariffs, fueling intense debate among business leaders and policymakers. The impact of tariffs on global supply chains, inflation, and corporate strategy has become a central topic for C-suites and investors.

A Strong Hand, but a Cloud of Uncertainty

Mr. Rowan argues that the U.S. is negotiating from strength, pointing to metrics such as 4% unemployment, robust job growth, and a significant influx of capital investment. Manufacturing—from semiconductors to clean energy—is experiencing a revival, underpinned by policy incentives and reshoring initiatives.

“This is actually a good time” for a trade reset, he said. Yet, he underscored a central risk: as long as trade rules are in flux, businesses may freeze hiring, investment, and expansion plans. “In the face of uncertainty, people do not make new investments. They do not hire. They do not make moves. We likely will cause two quarters of negative growth if we in fact, don’t resolve the uncertainty,” Rowan warned.

The prospect, according to Rowan, is less a classical recession than a correction in asset prices—a so-called “non-recession recession.” All else being equal, with the U.S. labor market still strong, the industrial buildout robust, and capital flows healthy, the economy could weather the turbulence. But should the unpredictability persist, the latent risk of a more severe downturn grows.

Tariffs as a Strategic Tool—But With Caution

Though Rowan supports the rationale behind Trump’s tariff policies, he is circumspect about the means. “We can take issue with how it’s being done and the uncertainty it’s creating,” he said. He posited that the U.S., Mexico, and Canada together could become a dominant economic bloc for the coming half-century—if barriers can be resolved methodically. Rowan cited the view of a prominent Mexican industrialist he recently spoke with: “If it takes tariffs to make Mexico great again, so be it.”

He proposed a sequence: first resolving issues with neighbors, then addressing other trading partners bilaterally—a strategy he argued would place the U.S. in a stronger negotiating position. Meanwhile, he noted, “people are on hold. Businesses are on hold. A lot of businesses are at risk of layoffs. If this continues, how long can this uncertainty continue without causing much greater damage?”

Rowan believes the current administration is pushing for swift momentum, aiming to secure new trade agreements country by country. If successful, he thinks the uncertainty could be resolved quickly; if not, it could persist—at a reputational cost to the U.S.

“Longer term, the way we’ve done this… we have done damage to the U.S. brand, the brand for stability, for predictability, for regularity. That will eventually have some cost to us. Right now, it does not. What I’ve said is I see us moving from what was hyper exceptionalism to merely exceptional, because I don’t think there are good alternatives to the U.S. today. But that can change over time.”

The Global Investor’s Dilemma

With Apollo’s global reach, Rowan keeps a close eye on international investor sentiment. He points out that, for now, the U.S. remains unchallenged in capital formation, representing over 60% of all capital raised worldwide.

“No one has what we have,” he said of the U.S.’ capital markets. Europe, by contrast, lacks comparable reserves of long-term capital—something Mario Draghi’s recent report on European competitiveness underscores.

Still, as Apollo Deputy CIO John Zito wrote in a recent letter to investors, the “U.S. brand” for stability is at risk. For now, Rowan says, “we will see it, but we’re not seeing it yet.”

A Measured Approach to Risk

Amid volatility, Apollo has responded by shifting investment strategy. “Are prices low? No, I do not believe prices are low. They are lower. But we’re still talking about an average PE in the mid-twenties versus 16 over time,” Rowan said, referencing public equity valuations. While rate cuts are not imminent in Apollo’s view, geopolitical risk remains elevated—a combination that leads the firm to “reduce risk in credit.”

That means gravitating toward senior secured, investment-grade instruments and cash-flow generative equities rather than speculative growth assets. In April, Apollo was a net buyer of investment-grade public market assets, moving up the capital structure in anticipation of market stress events.

“We have a perception that what’s public is safe and what’s private is risky. But what if we’re wrong?” he asked, noting that public market liquidity can evaporate under stress, as seen in prior shocks—such as the U.K. pension LDI crisis and market freezes at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Threat of Inflation—And a Hawkish Fed

Asked about President Trump’s reported preference for lower interest rates, Rowan demurred, but framed the debate: “We are moving things from low cost labor countries to higher cost labor countries, particularly to the U.S. There are strategic reasons to want to do that, but we can’t deny that that is inflationary in some ways.”

With a tight 4% unemployment rate, limited immigration, and large-scale onshoring, inflationary pressures are likely to persist even if energy prices and eventual technological advances offer counterweight.

“At the moment, the policies we’re following have a risk of being more inflationary than otherwise, which generally will lead to higher long term rates, even if short term rates come down,” Rowan concluded.

The Road Ahead

As the administration pushes ahead with tariffs and the global order is re-negotiated, economic uncertainty appears likely to persist—in the markets, the boardroom, and on Main Street. Rowan’s message: the rationale for resetting trade terms is strong, but the process for doing so must avoid unnecessary uncertainty and long-term damage to America’s financial reputation. The world may not have alternatives to the U.S. today—but in the complex and shifting global arena, advantage is never permanent.