In the whirlwind of technological advancement, artificial intelligence has emerged as a beacon of economic hope for the U.S. But as 2025 unfolds, top economists are sounding alarms that AI’s productivity boost may not be enough to counter mounting global headwinds. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, warns that deglobalization trends could erase the gains provided by AI, potentially tipping the economy into turbulence.

Drawing from recent analyses, AI has already contributed significantly to U.S. GDP growth. Harvard economist Jason Furman estimates that investments in data centers and software processing technology accounted for nearly all of the U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025, according to a report in Wired. This surge is driven by massive spending on AI infrastructure, with global private AI investment hitting record highs as noted in the Stanford AI Index 2025 report.

The Deglobalization Drag

Zandi highlights deglobalization as one of the economy’s biggest risks, characterized by rising tariffs, trade barriers, and a retreat from global integration. In a recent interview with Business Insider, he stated, “The trend of deglobalization will act as a headwind that could offset the boost provided by AI next year.” This comes amid escalating trade tensions, including potential new tariffs under evolving U.S. policies.

Posts on X echo these concerns, with users like Maine pointing out that 40% of U.S. GDP growth in 2025 has come from AI companies, warning of a potential bubble burst that could burden everyday Americans. Similarly, economist Lance Roberts noted on X that household equity exposure is at record highs, and a crack in AI tech valuations could hit GDP by 2.9% via wealth effects, citing data from The Economist.

AI’s Explosive Growth Amid Warnings

The AI boom is reshaping markets, with AI-related stocks accounting for 75% of S&P 500 returns since ChatGPT’s launch, as per JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest in the Wired report. Global AI spending is projected to surpass $375 billion in 2025, fueling data center expansions and energy demands, but analysts caution about sustainability.

A deep dive from The Economist explores scenarios where AI could explode economic growth, potentially lifting annual GDP to 20-30% if artificial general intelligence (AGI) outperforms humans in desk jobs. Yet, the same publication warns in a November 2025 article that 2026 will reveal AI’s true impact—boom, bust, or backlash.

Job Market Transformations and Risks

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that AI will affect nearly 40% of jobs worldwide, replacing some while complementing others, as detailed in their January 2024 blog updated with 2025 insights. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, emphasized the need for policies to balance AI’s potential, stating, “We need a careful balance of policies to tap its potential.”

On the job front, the AI data center boom is creating opportunities but also straining resources. Wired reports that the frenzy is reshaping the U.S. economy, with investments in data centers accounting for substantial GDP growth. However, X user 13Radar highlighted that AI provided a +0.63% GDP boost in 2025, enough to dodge recession, but tariffs and inequality could erase it by 2026.

Infrastructure Investments and Bubble Fears

Stanford’s AI Index 2025 reveals that AI is integrated into education, finance, and healthcare, with technical performance advancing rapidly. The report notes global private AI investment at record highs, but warns of scalability issues. X posts from Ferasap discuss the ‘AI Paradox’ in 2025, with infrastructure investments exceeding $375 billion, yet potential ‘scaling errors’ could inflate costs without returns.

Economists like those at Coface in their October 2025 review predict global growth at 2.6% in 2025, bolstered by U.S. AI investments, but note risks from political uncertainties and tariffs averaging 18%. The analysis praises robust U.S. consumer data and AI spending for outperforming expectations.

Energy and Sustainability Challenges

The energy demands of AI are escalating, with data centers warping the economy as per Wired. MIT Technology Review insights, referenced in WebProNews, expose 2025 tech trends including AI’s debt-driven data rush and regulatory challenges for giants like Nvidia and Google.

IEEE surveys in WebProNews indicate AI’s dominance in 2025, with trends like agentic systems and sustainable innovations. However, ethical concerns and job displacement loom, as AI could contribute trillions to the economy while addressing climate issues, per the outlet’s analysis.

Policy and Global Perspectives

Policymakers are turning to reports like Stanford’s AI Index for guidance, which highlights trends in AI publications, patents, and systems. The Economy chapter underscores AI’s growing impact in science and medicine.

Gartner found in Digit.fyi that economic turmoil topped AI as the leading emerging risk in Q3 2025, signaling a low-growth environment. This aligns with Zandi’s warnings, where deglobalization could offset AI’s benefits, potentially leading to stagnation.

Forecasts and Future Trajectories

Projections from SA News Channel on X estimate the global AI market at $400–$644 billion in 2025, growing to over $1.85 trillion by 2030. Users like Chubby quote The Economist on AGI’s potential for massive GDP lifts, but caution about overhype.

Dan Quidity on X stresses open infrastructure for long-term AI growth, valuing the market at $300–$760 billion in 2025, expanding to $2.5–$5.1 trillion by decade’s end. Yet, Jeffrey Keene notes on X that while AI fuels gains, it may mask underlying weaknesses, citing CNBC.

Navigating the AI-Economy Nexus

Arshalan G on X discusses the capital cycle, with Big Tech’s $400B+ AI capex in 2025 pushing spending to 21-35% of revenue, historically predicting poor returns. Karol Kozicki echoes that global AI spending will surpass $1.5 trillion in 2025, with 30%+ CAGR.

As 2025 progresses, the interplay between AI’s promise and deglobalization risks will define economic trajectories. Economists urge balanced policies to harness AI while mitigating headwinds, ensuring sustainable growth amid uncertainty.