In the high-stakes world of global economics, artificial intelligence is emerging as an unlikely buffer against trade tensions, with massive capital expenditures by tech giants helping to cushion the U.S. economy from the bite of tariffs. Economists are increasingly pointing to AI-related investments as a key driver of gross domestic product growth, even as they warn that this boom might be papering over deeper structural weaknesses.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, has highlighted how the surge in AI spending is effectively neutralizing some of the drag from tariffs imposed on imports, particularly from China. This perspective comes amid a broader capex frenzy, where companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia are pouring billions into data centers and related infrastructure to fuel AI advancements.

The AI Capex Surge and Its Economic Shield
This investment wave, projected to reach $320 billion in 2025 alone, is not just about building server farms; it’s reshaping economic narratives. As detailed in a recent analysis by Business Insider, the capex boom has blunted tariff impacts by stimulating domestic construction, energy demands, and tech supply chains, thereby propping up GDP figures that might otherwise falter.

Yet, this silver lining comes with caveats. Slok notes that while AI outlays are boosting metrics like nonresidential fixed investment, they could be masking stagnation in other sectors, such as manufacturing and consumer spending, which have shown signs of softening under tariff pressures.

Unmasking Hidden Vulnerabilities in GDP Data
Harvard economist Jason Furman has sounded alarms in reports echoed by Yahoo Finance, revealing that without data center contributions, U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was a mere 0.1%. This stark statistic underscores how AI-driven capex is carrying the load for an economy that, stripped of these investments, appears anemic.

Deutsche Bank’s insights, as covered in another Business Insider piece, question the sustainability of this trend. Once data center projects peak, what fills the void? Analysts fear a potential cliff if AI returns don’t materialize quickly enough to justify the spending.

Big Tech’s Bet and Market Implications
Morgan Stanley’s optimistic forecast, outlined in their latest report and discussed in Business Insider, suggests that these enormous outlays could yield substantial returns by 2028, potentially validating the hype around generative AI and machine learning. Tech megacaps are betting big, with plans to invest up to $320 billion this year, as per CNBC coverage.

However, skeptics point to historical parallels with past tech bubbles, where infrastructure booms preceded corrections. The “data center wars,” as termed in industry circles, are intensifying competition for power grids and real estate, driving up costs that could ripple into broader inflation.

Forecasting the Post-Boom Economy
Looking ahead, the interplay between AI capex and tariffs will be crucial for policymakers. Former President Donald Trump has praised these investments, per Business Insider, but economists like those at Apollo warn of a potential masking effect that hides recessionary signals.

If AI spending tapers without corresponding productivity gains, the U.S. might face a sharper downturn. Industry insiders are watching closely, as the fate of this capex surge could redefine economic resilience in an era of geopolitical friction and technological disruption. For now, AI’s golden rush is holding the line, but the true test lies in whether it can sustain growth beyond the construction phase.