2043 Census Prediction: U.S. Whites Not a Majority

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The U.S. Census Bureau today released predictions for the changing demographics of the country over then next 50 years. This is the first set of population projections issued by the bureau that are based on the 2010 Census.

Perhaps the most telling change coming in America is something that was much-discussed in the days following the 2012 presidential election. The nation is becoming less white, and the Census Bureau predicts that white non-hispanics will no longer make up over half of the U.S. population by 2043.

“The next half century marks key points in continuing trends — the U.S. will become a plurality nation, where the non-Hispanic white population remains the largest single group, but no group is in the majority,” said Thomas L. Mesenbourg, acting director for the bureau.

The white non-hispanic population is expected to peak in 2024, just shy of 200 million people. It is then expected to decline slowly, unlike every other ethnic group.

The Hispanic population of the U.S. is expected to more than double between now and 2060, as is the Asian population. The black population is predicted to rise slightly to 14.7% of the total population in 2060. Other minorities, such as Native Hawaiians, Alaska Natives, and Native American populations, are also expected to rise in the coming decades. Overall, minorities which now make up 37% of the U.S. population are predicted to comprise 57% of the population in 2060.

In addition to its ethnic shift, the U.S. is expected to grow much older by 2060. Citizens over 65 years old now only make up around one-seventh of the current population, but are expected to make up one-fifth of the U.S. population in 2060. People over 85 years old are predicted to triple in number by 2060, when they are expected to represent 4.3% of the population.

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