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Obama’s Reelection Directly Linked To Market Performance

Past elections show conclusive evidence

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Many studies in the past have tried to find a link or commonality as to why a President is elected. A lot of them have tried to use three main things, economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. A recent study came out that looked at elections of incumbents from the last 200 years and seems to have found a link between stock market performance and election results.

As their website states: “We analyze all U.S. presidential re-election bids and find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent’s vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for re-election. We find no significant relationships between the incumbent’s vote margin and inflation or unemployment. GDP is a significant predictor of incumbents’ popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Egotropic and sociotropic voting hypotheses fail to account for the findings. The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (1) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment and (2) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.”

If these guys have actually found a significant link between how the market performs in the first 3 years of an incumbent’s Presidential term, then we should expect more stupid things to come out of Rush Limbaugh’s mouth in the next 4 years because Obama will be reelected in a landslide. When Obama took office in 2009, the DJIA was hovering around 9,000. Now we are looking at a DJIA approaching 13,000.

See the chart below from the study that shows the conclusive data. There is only 1 or 2 aberrations in the data.

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Election Chart

Obama’s Reelection Directly Linked To Market Performance
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There are 5 Comments. Add Yours.
  1. seriously?

    I understand the point of this article. to draw a correlation for why president’s win elections, but I just got to point out, it will be b/c of the ignorance and lack of independent thinking that he would get elected again. Not only b/c this guy has usurped more power in such a short time span than ever before. I mean at this point who the heck needs congress. In addition to his continual power grab…

    Day Obama took office….

    National Debt = $10.6 Trillion
    Today = nearing $16 Trillion (*and he has just requested another $1.2 Trillion deficit increase)

    Price of oil = $1.79 / gallon
    Today = $3.79 / gallon

    There are endless more things to be said at the sad performance of this president and his administration, but those 2 alone should suffice….but the worst thing is Mitt, Newt, and Rick on the other side will all just maintain the majority of Obama’s/Bush’ policies. #RonPaul2012

    As for this whole Rush Limbaugh deal…his goal is ratings, I don’t agree with how he said it (*as far as the crude language), but your articles should also include a critique of the insanity that is Sandra Fluke. She seriously stated that she and her friends spend close to $3,000 A YEAR ON CONTRACEPTION, ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?! And then she has the grapefruits to demand that taxpayers fund her sexual addiction HAHA, this is pure insanity.

    Sure Rush Limbaugh shouldn’t have said what he said the way he said it…but just think for 1 second…If you paid $2 per condom you would have to use 4 condoms a day to spend that in 1 years time ($3,000 / $2 = $1,500….$1,500 / 365 = 4.11 condoms per day). She is 30 years old for gods sake. How does this go un-critiqued. If I am missing something please by all means update me on what I should know…..

    • serena

      Your statement is ignorant and without research. The deficit when obama took office was already 17 trillion. We were already in the whole as ignorant people want low taxes adn war which cannot be done. There ya go bush.. and republicans thanks alot for screwing us over. Obama has done more for the country than anyone else. And that birth control your so worried about, they are not just talking about birth control, it is about preventative care for women. I don’t hear pos men complainging about having us pay for their prostate exams, but they don’t want to pay for my mammograms. Seriously/.????? I don’t know what rock you people crawled out of but get the facts before you make ignorant statements.

      • serena

        Rush limbaugh is just another man with a small penis that wants to exert some attention to draw away from it. He probably hasn’t seen it in years.

  2. seriously?

    also while you’re at it…if you want to write statement’s about stupid stuff said from conservatives…oh i mean people…then why don’t you include articles on Ed Schultz calling Laura Ingram a slut (then he tries to stand up for Fluke in an interview, what a freakin hypocrite), or how about Bill Maher who donated $1 Million to Bill Burton (*the guy in charge of Obama’s Super PAC) you could write your doctrinal thesis on all the rude, crude, insensitive, outright deameaning & disrespectful garbage that flies from that mans vocal chords. There are others, but I didn’t see anything about those on WebProNews….

  3. seriously?

    I don’t even know how to respond to your comment, where on earth do you get the information that the federal deficit was 17 Trillion when Barak took office? And what has Barak done for the country…give me the top 3 things…..

    Now I fully understand there is a derivatives market that is completely unregulated and un-accounted for that is upwards of $60+ Trillion, but of course you wouldn’t know anything about that, since you only make completely fabricated statements that you have heard on MSNBC & CNN.

    I am so sick of hearing socialists like yourself blame everything on Bush, he was bad but ole Barry is an outspoken socialist marxist. If you don’t think so I would admonish you to come out from your cave and try to look at him with just a tad bit of objectivity rather than hold tight your party bias.

    About birth control and prostate checks…the federal gov’t shouldn’t be paying for ANY of it. Additionally, if the gov’t isn’t paying for mammograms but they are paying for prostate checks then they should in fact cover mammograms, HOWEVER, I wasn’t even talking about mammograms in the first place…I am addressing the contraception issue…which isn’t preventative, but merely a ways for tax payers to fund the promiscuous sexual addiction of sandra fluke and her friends.

    Outside of all this, you completely ignored that ridiculous claims of Sandra Fluke hahahaha she is a flat out socialist bum that wants people to pay for her sex addiction and lifestyle….lastly you can make comments about Rush’s penis all you want I don’t really care for him or comments about him, I don’t see you making fun of Sandra Fluke….if you’re going to make fun of somebody it should be her INSANE statements that she made in front of congress, what a joke…quit being so ignorant to your own party’s actions #getaclue