SpaceX shares have been cut in half from their June highs. Tesla has given back hundreds of billions. Together the two Elon Musk companies shed roughly $1.2 trillion in market value during July. Yet Apple kept climbing. The contrast captures a market in flux.
From the start of the month through late July, SpaceX lost nearly $800 billion. Tesla dropped more than $400 billion. Alphabet shed over $300 billion. The top 10 companies by market cap together gave up $1.5 trillion. The S&P 500’s net loss stood at $600 billion. Gains elsewhere offset some pain.
Apple’s Steady Climb Amid the Storm
Apple added $700 billion. It now sits near a $5 trillion valuation. Microsoft rose $150 billion. Meta gained $100 billion. Six of the top 10 posted advances. Their combined increases exceeded $600 billion. The equal-weight S&P 500 index finished the period up 1%. The cap-weighted version fell 1%. Rotation away from the biggest names drove the split.
Tech, communication services and consumer discretionary sectors turned red. The chips sector fell 20%. Cash flowed out of previous leaders. Yet the damage stayed contained so far. If semiconductor weakness spreads, it becomes everyone’s problem. For now the market looks steadier than headlines suggest.
This July reversal follows an even sharper June selloff. The so-called Magnificent Seven — Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Tesla — lost $2.3 trillion in market capitalization that month. It marked their biggest correction since March 2025. The timing coincided with SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO.
SpaceX went public in mid-June. It raised a record $75 billion at a $2.1 trillion valuation. Shares opened to frenzy. They quickly pushed the company’s worth above $2.9 trillion at one point. That put it close to Microsoft’s level and, paired with Tesla’s then-$1.3 trillion, near Apple’s $4.3 trillion. (Yahoo Finance, June 16, 2026)
But reality set in fast. SpaceX filed an S-1 that laid bare its finances. The company reported $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue. It posted a GAAP net loss of $4.94 billion. Capital expenditures exploded to more than $20 billion, much of it tied to Starship development and xAI compute infrastructure. Q1 2026 brought another $4.28 billion net loss. Accumulated deficit reached $41.3 billion.
Investors grew uneasy. Alfonso de Benito, chief investment officer at Dunas Capital, which oversees more than $5 billion, called the prior U.S. stock market valuation unsustainable, mainly because of technology companies. “The share prices of AI-related firms implied not only that revenues would continue growing in coming years at the current rapid pace, but that growth would actually accelerate.” (EL PAÍS, July 1, 2026)
Hyperscalers plan massive spending. The five big ones are expected to commit $713 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, rising to $907 billion in 2027 and topping $1 trillion by 2029, according to ING. Francisco Quintana at ING noted that AI enthusiasm persists. Yet upcoming IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI will test investor appetite.
Tesla faces its own pressures. The electric-vehicle maker raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast. Free cash flow turned negative at times. Full self-driving rollout outside North America hit repeated delays. The Robotaxi event has been postponed. Optimus robot production timelines remain vague. Trailing 12-month GAAP net income stands at $3.86 billion. Combine that with SpaceX’s losses and a merged entity would show no net profit.
But. The Musk factor still commands attention. Retail investors poured money into SpaceX on its first trading day. Some treat drawdowns in his companies as buying opportunities, a lesson learned from Tesla’s wild ride. That psychology met a different starting point this time. SpaceX debuted at a valuation 1,000 times larger than Tesla’s IPO.
Recent trading reflects fresh skepticism. SpaceX shares fell to near $115 in late July, down more than 26% in the past month from levels above $200 earlier. A $123 billion lockup expiry looms in early August. Tesla shares also slid. The pair’s combined decline erased value equal to an entire Tesla at peak levels, as noted across trading desks.
Apple offers the counterpoint. It largely avoided the aggressive AI capital spending sprees of peers. Its stock gained 18% year-to-date through recent sessions while others faltered. Citi analysts lifted their price target to $365 from $315 and kept a buy rating, expecting market share gains despite a slower devices market. (Yahoo Finance, July 27, 2026)
Jefferies raised Tesla’s price target to $400 from $375, citing higher Q2 EBIT and improved profit expectations. Still a hold. The mixed analyst views highlight uncertainty.
Broader tech faces questions on returns from those huge outlays. Alphabet boosted its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $205 billion. The Magnificent Seven index dropped 4.8% in a single session recently, wiping out $787 billion. Alphabet’s spending hike and Tesla’s profit miss triggered much of the move. Nvidia was the lone gainer that day. (Briefs.co, July 25, 2026)
So the July numbers tell a tale of concentration risk. A handful of names drove years of gains. Now two tied to one executive absorb the biggest hits while a more conservative giant holds firm. Whether this marks a temporary rotation or something longer remains unclear. Valuations once assumed endless acceleration. Spending plans keep rising. Profits for some stay elusive.
SpaceX closed its first trading day with a $2.1 trillion market cap. It has since lost the equivalent of a full Tesla. Merger speculation between the two Musk companies surfaces often. Prediction markets put odds around 59% by 2027. A combined entity could top $3.6 trillion. Yet it would carry zero net profit under current figures. That math gives pause.
Analysts caution against overpaying for the story. One called SpaceX’s valuation “bubblicious” even if Starlink delivers. Historical data on money-losing IPOs at this scale don’t inspire confidence. The lottery framing some investors apply may not hold when the ticket costs trillions from day one.
Still markets price in possibility. Starlink growth, launch cadence, AI infrastructure. Tesla’s energy storage, autonomy bets, robot ambitions. Apple’s services, devices, ecosystem strength. Each carries distinct risks and timelines.
July laid bare the differences. Musk’s pair felt the full force of doubt over spending and delivery. Apple sailed through with modest exposure to the hottest debates. The megacaps didn’t all move together. They haven’t for some time. That divergence could widen or narrow depending on earnings, spending updates and macro signals ahead.
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