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Has Facebook Peaked?


Or is it just something to talk about on Friday afternoon?

It's one thing when it appears that Facebook has lost numbers in Britain. Facebook wasn't alone. Social networking in general was down in that one country, where habits have never exactly been a mirror of the larger situation. Bebo, for example, is still relatively unknown in the States.

But follow-up numbers have people buzzing all the more. In the US, a plateau for Facebook, followed by a small January dip. Let the news of Facebook's death be exaggerated everywhere.

Facebook Facebook Logo
(Photo Credit: Facebook)

The more prudent are reserving judgment. One month of fluctuation doesn't mean death or that the masses are losing interest or even finding new networks to be a part of. Those other networks are out there though, just waiting for the clusterfunk to divide into tribes like good humans*.

Or it might just mean that meteoric growth couldn't be sustained forever. And it won't be. MySpace over all is still growing, just not like it used to. It still dwarfs Facebook, the second most popular, and Facebook worldwide still has a strong pulse.

But it is a reminder about the nature of a "social" network. It's not like search, where one company builds a better robot than the other companies and thereby earns the market share until something better comes along, if it ever does. A social network has only as much sticking power as the local hot spot.

MySpace won its 109 million visitors via hype. The same goes for Facebook's 34 million visitors. Both are vulnerable to the next great thing, vulnerable to a band of ten-year-olds who will be old enough and interested enough one day to seek out social networks, vulnerable to the possibility their current members will engineer their own diaspora as they discover not only people with similar tastes and situations, but whole new worlds of social networks specifically designed for those tastes and situations.

So, don't read too much into what could be a seasonal fluctuation or what could have any number of explanations. But don't be too surprised either when the eventual diffusion occurs.

*This is not meant to imply any support of any type of segregation based on any characteristic or trait. It is only meant to reflect my (sarcastic and cynical) observation that humans are often naturally tribal, dividing themselves into "us" and "them," thereby creating territorial boundaries and rivalries. Kentuckians point and sneer at Ohioans and vice versa. In high school, my team was the Lions, and we had no love whatsoever for the Ashland Tomcats, who lived just 5 or 10 miles away, or their sissy mascot, or their citified ways. See, tribal. We probably exhibit the same behavior online. So would chimps, if we'd teach them how to use a mouse.     
 

About the author:
Jason Lee Miller is a WebProNews editor and writer covering business and technology.

11 Comments

Monopoly

I think Facebook will gain a monopoly share of social media. Then I believe that Google will offer Facebook a staggering amount and purchase them outright. It tmakes tons of sense for Google to have access to that kind of data.

Further growth and expansion

I think Facebook will grow into a corporate entity and move into other areas.

Facebook will continue to grow

Facebook is doing well, and will likely continue to both grow and dominate as the major force in social networking.

Facebook on the rise

I think Facebook will continue to grow. It shows no signs of dropping off of the charts, and with tons of new modules and ideas Facebook looks set to take us into the next decade.

cool design web web

Predictions about both sites

Myspace will die a slow, agonizing death. The interface is lousy, the website is often spammy and littered, the ode is atrocious. They have had multiple changes to imporve their interface, especially with the amount of income rolling in, and have yet to improve even the simplest things. Given that attitude, I believe they are going to fizzle away.

Facebook will grow and will continue to stay as long as the have creative thinkers on board who can help the network move in the direction the people want.

Every Niche Peaks Eventually

My opinion is that every unique opportunity eventually outlasts its own usefulness and effectivess. Eventually Facebook will likely be replaced by anotehr Social Network that offers all of the same features, with other features that Facebook simply does not have.

The Internet moves very fast, and in our day and age of fads and fast-moving ideas, most businesses and ventures have a shelf life of about 5 years.

My Mature Audience

I think while MySpace does have an edge, and both are dominated by a younger demographic, Facebook has a braoder appeal.  I work with companies that need help with online marketing and often customers ask about Facebook.  I'd say that the demigraphic is shifting to a more mature/professional audience.

Just my two cents,

Charles

really its peaked !

really its peaked !

Yeah, i think facebook is

Yeah, i think facebook is peaked!

RE: Has Facebook Peaked?

Just my two cents worth:

I never really got into facebook to begin with.  One of my friends kept bugging me to try it so I signed up last year.  I log in twice a month or so to answer messages, but I usually forget about it until I get an email from them.

I prefer myspace, but then I'm a professional web designer, and I really like the fact that I can insert my own CSS and pimp my profile out  :)  If facebook offered an option like that, I'd probably visit more often.

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