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Google+ To Pass 10 Million Users Today, 20 Million By Weekend

Rate of growth "exponential" according to analysis

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Google+ To Pass 10 Million Users Today, 20 Million By Weekend
[ Social Media]

Early this morning on his Google+ account, Ancestry.com founder and entrepreneur Paul Allen wrote a lengthy post about user estimates on the brand new social network. His estimates show that the rate of growth of Google+ is not only strong, but staggering.

Allen suggested on Sunday that there were probably close to 5 million users currently on Google Plus. They way he calculated this figure is based on U.S. Census Data of specific surnames compared to registered users on Google+.

In his post this morning he explains his process further -

My model is simple. I start with US Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S. to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates. My ratio is 1 US user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. That ratio was calculated on July 4th through a laborious effort, and I haven’t updated it since. That is definitely a weakness in my model that I hope to address soon. The ratio will likely change over time.

Using that model, Allen has predicted that sometime today, Google+ will top 10 million users. This is based on the fact that the tally reached 7.3 million users yesterday, which signifies a 350% increase in six days. At the time of his post, he estimated 9.5 million users. That means over 2 million joined Google+ in roughly a day and a half.

If Allen’s estimates are accurate, then it is likely that Google+ has already broken through the 10 million user mark as you read this.

“I’m not claiming perfect accuracy,” he says. “But I do think the model is sound.”

He also thinks that Google+ could hit 20 million users by this weekend. Of course this is contingent on the Invite Button remaining available – which right now it is. After a period of on and off availability of invites, Google is currently allowing new users into the social network, and has been for a couple of days now.

As the membership continues to grow, maybe the gender distribution will even itself out. As of right now, males outnumber females registered to Google+ by an astounding margin.

With this kind of growth, it doesn’t seem out of the question that Bill Gross is right, and Google+ will be the fastest social network to reach 100 million users.

Google+ To Pass 10 Million Users Today, 20 Million By Weekend
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  • http://www.inetsoft.com/solutions/industry/technology/ Technology Reporter

    I think the best way for Google+ to reach the 100 million user mark is to keep it invite only. It is making the demand for it even greater, then once it is opened to the public, people will most likely rush to it because of the hype surrounding it.

  • http://www.host.co.in/ Host.co.in

    Still it is not as much interactive as Facebook, so it will be little bit hurry to compare it with Facebook so early.

  • http://www.woic.co.uk/ Caerdydd

    It looks fantastic, but I do wonder how many are going to persevere with it seen as many already have all their friends and photo albums etc etc built up on fb. starting a fresh is tempting for some, but lots of people I think wont want to go through all that effort.

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