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American Idol Predictions from Likester

Startup takes Facebook "Likes" and makes them useful for fun and business

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Did you watch American Idol last night? If not, here’s my amateur recap: James rocked the house, as usual; Scotty had the girls swooning, again, as usual; Lauren won the judges over with both her song selections; and Haley, although criticized for her first song choice by Jennifer Lopez and Randy Jackson, came back and showed her determination to win in her second performance.

Who do you think should win American Idol? Tell us your vote in the comments.

Although many of us have likely made predictions about whom we think should go home each Thursday night, a new startup prides itself in making Idol predictions based on actual data. The new service is called Likester, and the data is based on Facebook “likes.”

Likester Idol goes through Facebook and analyzes the “like” data of each contestant both before and after the Wednesday night show. From this, they are able to determine how many new fans, or “likes,” the contestants have gained based on their performances. On Thursday around noon PST, Likester makes their predictions.

Last week, they predicted that Jacob Lusk would be sent home, which proved to be correct. Will they be right again tonight? Check back here for frequent updates.

It’s an interesting concept, isn’t it? Not only is Likester fun for entertainment purposes such as Likester Idol, but it is also useful in other areas. Likester serves as a search database for Facebook “likes.” In addition, it categorizes the “like” data in several ways to show users all the Facebook pages that they have liked in the past, the pages that their friends like, the pages that are currently trending, and the pages that are  “liked” the most in any given area.

Likester is also experimenting with affinity and anti affinity data. This data would make recommendations to users based user trends. For example, if you “like” Pepsi, Likester would suggest a list of items to you that others that “like” Pepsi also “like.” The anti affinity aspect would show items that users didn’t “like.”

“Our goal is to help users understand the things that they’re already liking and, potentially, things that they could like,” said Kevin McCarthy, the Founder and President of Likester.

Likester’s database grew to 2.5 million items in just a week’s time, which means that it is collecting a lot of rich data. McCarthy told us that brands are also finding the data very useful for their local marketing efforts.

“I think we’ve done a really good job of putting the data out there. Our challenge is going to be about surfacing the good stuff for the users, so that they don’t have to do all this searching,” he said.

Aside from the business and entertainment uses, we can also see Likester playing an important role in the upcoming elections in 2012.

How much of an impact do you think Facebook “likes” will play in the elections next year?

Update: According to this week’s Facebook “like” data, Likester predicts that Lauren Alaina will be going home tonight. Will this prediction come true? We’ll find out tonight…

Update 2: It appears that the Facebook “like” data wasn’t as telling this week – Likester predicted Lauren to be the one going home and, ironically, James Durbin, who has 129,137 “likes” on Facebook, was the one America voted off the show. Does this mean that the “like” metric isn’t as influential as we originally thought?

American Idol Predictions from Likester
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  • http://MSN.com Mary Newlon

    Scotty – the most recordable and money maker. The only cd I would buy.

    • Nena

      I MOST DEFINETELY BUY SCOTTY’S CD

  • Leslie

    Wish there could be two winners,James and Haley. James is a natural, all-round performer and Haley has made great strides since the beginning but since two can’t win I would have to say James will take the coveted award.

  • http://google Eric

    Haley, Should be the WINNER! She has the best voice and she is the most talented! GO HALEY!!!

  • Beth

    James or Scotty. Hayley, I would have liked her gone weeks ago.

    • Karyn Barber

      Ditto…Haley needs to go…she is a poor sport, phony, and not that talented….The winner should be Scotty!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Steph

        How do you know she is a phony? I think it’s fair to have genuinely different opinions on taste, but why be mean to someone you don’t even know?

      • Carmen

        I totally agree w/you Karyn on your assessment of Haley. And to that I add that her mouthiness is very inappropriate, I can’t imagine all the contestants arguing with the judge. Go James!

      • Nena

        Yes!

    • Nena

      JAMES OF COURSE HE IS GOING TO WIN NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT

    • Nena

      JAMES IS GONE, HALEY WILL BE NEXT YOUR WISHES WILL COME TRUE! LEAVING SCOTTY AS OUR NEW AMERICAN IDOL!

  • http://none Greg Willis

    I like Scottie but I thing James is the winner.

    • Nena

      Not!!!!

  • Cathy Lopuszynski

    I picked Scotty to be the next American Idol when I saw him audition for the show. He has a remarkable voice and I am waiting to buy his first CD. American Idol is a great show and I watch every week.

    • Patti

      James and Scotty have always been my top two pic’s as James as my favorite. Though Haley and Lauren are both great singers, I feel that Lauren has the maturity or confidence to make it the end.

    • jacki

      I’M FEELIN Lauren sorry Scotty is still not at the same level as Lauren, Haley doesn’t have the personality when it comes to criticism, James is Awesome… they all are EXTREMELY TALENTS But i’m voten LAUREN

    • Nena

      SCOTTY IS GOING TO WIN! THE HALEY HAS NOT TALENT ALL SHE CAN DO IS HER GRAWLING SHE NEEDS TO GIVE IT UP!

  • Nancy

    James Durbin should win. He excels in every avenue of these performances. Creativity with outfits appropriately fitting to the songs, he really knows his music and musicians. His voice is unbelievable. James is the best contestant.

    • Patti

      He is a genious.

    • Nena

      NOT!

  • Victoria

    GO HALEY! . .
    James is annoying me now im so tired of him, and if you havent noticed Lauren is such a poor sport. Shes too young for this competition, i think her “sweet” personality is really phony !

    • Zora

      My vote goes to James… he’s versatile, he proved to all that his softer and emotional side is a stron as his rocker side. He could basically do any song “per J. Lo” ditto.

  • john

    Scotty has the tone in his voice, Yes, but no range. His voice doesnt even come close to that of the other remaining contestants. Scotty’s success lies solely on the fact that he’s the only true country singer on the show. He should have been voted off weeks ago. James has probably the best voice left on the show with Haley and Lauren right there behind him.

    James and Haley!

    • Jeanne Hood

      I like James and Haley

    • Nena

      YES, THEY ARE ON THEIR WAY OUT THE DOOR JUST LIKE JAMES LOL

  • Lainey

    I think that James is the top “dawg.” None of the others has his maturity, depth and range and sheer talent. Scotty will be scooped up by Nashville in a heartbeat after all this is over. Lauren is only 16 and needs to enjoy her teen years and become a bit more seasoned. She’s so sweet that she’ll get eaten up. Haley will do well. She’s got a stylized voice and she’ll get a contract. The final two? James and Haley. Or, James and Scotty.

  • http://blackhair-extensions.com Genta Kusuma

    James Durbin.. I predict be the winner ! great voice. And I love his style…

  • mo

    JAMES!!!!!

    • Dana

      Scotty will be the money maker out of all of them and that is what AOL needs now. Scotty is going places just like Carrie Underwood.

  • Jo

    Even though I am a Scotty fan, I think that James will win. Sorry, but I just don’t get Haley’s attraction. It seems to me all she does is scream. At least James shows a softer side at times and show he can sing. Plus, I think Haley has a really bad attitude. It should be Scotty and James in the final.

  • Marie

    This is the year with the most talented people. Now it is truly a popularity contest not so much the “most talented” contest. These kids will make a ton of money. All are recordable and have a great following. James will win this year. Scotty or Hallie will be second. Lauren has a great talent as did Pia, Casey and Stefano. I just hope they do not take the negative and own that when they have so much going for them…

    • Jackie

      Marie,

      I absolutely agree! By far the most talented group of kids out of any season. I have loved watching this season! I think all four that are left will do well whether they win or not. Since the beginning I have loved Scotty, Lauren, and James! Haley has grown tremendously on the show as a performer. So honestly, it doesn’t even matter who wins now because they’re all stars as far as I’m concerned!

    • Susanne

      Scotty will make it in country music, but he is not the one who should win American Idol! He doesn’t really act like he wants it bad enough…he acts like he thinks he already won! Lauren is very talented, but is too young and insecure! She needs time! Haley has talent and confidence and even when harshly criticized, she comes back stronger! This makes her a good American Idol. She is strong! James is well rounded and knows how to appeal to the audience and he brings it every time! He deserves to be the American Idol! That is what it is all about! “Who would truly be the BEST American Idol! My choice is James and Haley = top 2!!

      • shirley

        I really think Scooty has the best voice and vocal range James screams to much even in the slow softer songs and Haley just don’t get it and Lauren has a good voice but not there yet

  • marcela

    I like all of them, but for me JAMES should be the winner.

    • Nena

      TOO BAD SO SAD WITH JAMES BEING GONE THAT WILL LEAVE SCOTTY TO WIN

  • tami

    James is wonderful. He is real and a great performer. Go James!!!!!

  • rosemary kinert

    Haley will go home. I love Scotty!

  • Crystal

    LAUREN IS SAFE!

  • anna

    i think james should win i cant wait if everyone remembers steve said he would sing with james if he gets to the final i hope hes true on his word good luck james

  • Sadie

    I think ………..James Durbin.. should have WON American Idol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He was the best and I mean THE BEST… over all entertainer on the show…WTF!!!! he got voted off over the remaining 3 ????? Now its like whatever and whoever…wins can not compare to him….Whats wrong with the American voters??? they got rid of the best 3 when they voted off Pia, Casey and now James???? really??? WTF? loving true talents…..in Tulsa

    • ella

      Crazy crazy crazy. He was the best and now he is out! what an irony. i do not think the show will be interesting any more. There is no meaning to it anymore…………..

  • ella

    Its a SHAME that the person who sings best is eliminated tonight. I do not know if people are blind. what is wrong with us? JAMES is the IDOLE in spite of all. Cannot still believe the Haley should be there and he is OUTTTTTTT what a shameeeeeeeeee.GOD, I CANNOT BELIEVE IT
    .James, we love you and your future is very bright. think positive. God has a plan for you and we know there are many producers outthere ready to get you going – a nice contract. we all know that America is wrong putting you out. the judges were also very astonished. Good luck to you and your family. Stay Blessed.

  • http://rodolfogrimaldi.com Rodolfo Grimaldi

    This season, American Idol will be a girl. The numbers of “likes” have to have relevance, because they come from people who votes to the guys.

    Daniel

  • http://www.andeanlifeperu.com/ Melania Mendoza

    Although many of us have likely made predictions about whom we think should go home each Thursday night, a new startup prides itself in making Idol predictions based on actual data. The new service is called Likester, and the data is based on Facebook “likes.”

  • http://Internet Ginny

    Scotty should win it all. Lauren of course could do it, she is the dark horse and could surprise people.

  • http://Internet Ginny

    SCOTTY WILL WIN IT ALL!!!!

  • http://www.rickgrossman-blog.com Rick Grossman

    It means that the judges must have significant voting power before the show becomes a joke. Durbin will be able to make a living singing and thats what is most important.

  • http://www.rickgrossman.com D. Lukow

    Scotty needs a hair makeover at the earliest possible date.

  • jennie johnson

    scotty
    all the way from the first time we heard him sing, its always been my choice from day one and we ll be in line to buy that cd go scotty we are all for you. hes a very well polite gentlmen and we love the way he sings to his fans, he s just the best,

  • Brandon

    Haley should have gone home. I live in NC bout an hour away from Garner. As you could have guessed im a McCreery fan. James and Scotty were my two picks. Now Haley’s home next week, and Scotty is American Idol Season 10.

  • JL

    There is always something odd about the American idol votes late in the season. Not to say there is manipulation> What else was happening last Wednesday night? Basketball, Hockey? Some of the audience may have been doing something else either during or right after the show skewing the vote. The outcome was clearly different than expectations.

  • Pat Murray

    Scotty

  • http://babystrollers2011.com/ Bob

    Scotty is a joke. Should have been eliminated a long time ago. Haley has a great voice and is my choice to win. Lauren is a close second and could still make it.

  • http://serenitymind.us Leona Tjan

    I putting myself on the spot for what I do. I also know my filters can be diluted because I love who I am going to pick. I feel like Haley is going to win. She is the most verse to cross different genre. It also feel that even if she does not win, she will be a winner. I do feel Haley is the winner

  • Richard

    To me, Lauren should have been voted off this last week. The prior week, her childlike whining when she went to the bottom two was really out of Idol character. This week, when she was chosen to stay first, she displayed an arrogant attitude (also out of Idol character) and was hard pressed to show any emotion toward James – she’s totally conceited.

    My choice was to see Haley and James as the final two. Alas…

  • JC

    I believe Haley is going to win it all. Originally, I thought it was going to be Haley and Casey in the finals, with Casey winning it all. But now I think it will be Haley and Scotty because I don’t think America will vote to put two Country singers in the finals.

  • Mike

    I believe the deck is stacked against Haley. I disagree with the song choice that the judges picked for the final three(Alanis Morissette). The song is over done on Idol and not her style. I thought that the Jazz duet with Casey she performed, first showed me what she was good at. Maybe, I am wrong , But if I was her mentor, I would recommend Portishead “Glory Box” or “Road”. These are two memorizing songs with a chance for her to sing with a lot of emotion and show off her jazzy-type singing style.

  • Richard

    Apparently the same people who voice their opinion on twitter don’t vote for the Idol of their choice. Or, the people who vote don’t use a computer. They sure seem to be different groups.

  • Louann Norman

    I think James should win American Idol because he did everything the judges told him to and he showed improvement every week.
    James is the only contestant that has a strong enough character and
    talent to win and represent American Idol.

  • Dave Nolte

    I hope Scotty wins, then Lauren with Haley a distant third.

    • ERO DFR

      Yes

  • http://www.angelesclassified.com Drew

    Scotty, the most distinctive voice, the others though they are good singers, are just soundalikes, you don’t have to be watching to know Scotty is singing especially when he hits those low notes. He is also a roll model for young people, he has a honesty about him.

  • http://www.metanym.com/milton-keynes MarkFL

    Anyone capable of influencing elections leaves themselves open to all sorts of temptations, it will be interesting to keep an eye out on this one.

    • ERO DFR

      AGREE

  • TILLIE@LOGANVILLEFORD.COM

    I THINK SCOTTY WILL BE THE MOST SELLABLE AND MONEY MAKER. LAUREN SECOND. HALEY HAS A HUGE PROBLEM SHE THINKS SHE IS ALL IT. I CAN’T THINK OF A RECORD i WOULD BUT OF HERS AT ALL. LAUREN AND SCOTTY COULD MAKE A RECORD RIGHT NOW. HALEY LOOKS AT THE JUDGES AS THOUGH THEY LOST THEIR MINDS WHEN THE SAY SOMETHING NEGATIVE LIKE WHO IN THE WORLD ARE YOU TO JUDGE ME. WELL THEY ARE JUDGES. SHE HAS A TERRIBE ATTITUDE. I DO NOT LIKE HER AT ALL. I HAVE WATCHED HER NEXT TIME THEY ARE NEGITIVE WATCH HER FACE, PLEASE ALL VOTE SCOTTY THEN LAUREN.

    • ERO DFR

      Totally agree

  • ERO DFR

    SCOTTY AND HALEY

  • Sheila Thielenhouse

    I wanted James Durbin to win, but we know that is not going to happen. I truly think that Scotty is now the frontman. He has been amazing every week and grown so much as a performer.

  • Jo

    Scotty!!!! He is amazing!

  • Jo

    Scotty is the man!!!!

  • Eddie Jones

    Alaina may be young, she is
    mature and carries herself very well,Why is it no one mentions she may very well
    win,In spite of the negative comments.You go girl.

  • Katherine

    I think Scotty will win, not only for his singing talent but He is so real!! Week after week he is so humble and just a real person, combined with his talent He has the winning combination! Scotty deserves to be the next American Idol..Scotty follows his heart, and that is why he is in the finale!!

  • JUNE gettings

    Both Lauren and Scotty are great. Why not have a duet winner. Both of them. A duet CD by them would be great.

  • http://ecash10.com Ecash10

    I LIKE this but dislike that button

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