In a recent interview, Uber Technologies Inc.’s chief executive, Dara Khosrowshahi, outlined a bold vision for the future of transportation, asserting that all vehicles could become autonomous within the next two decades. This prediction, shared in an article by Business Insider, positions manual driving as a relic akin to horseback riding—a recreational pursuit rather than a daily necessity. Khosrowshahi’s comments come amid accelerating advancements in self-driving technology, where companies like Uber are partnering with firms such as Waymo to integrate robotaxis into their fleets.

The Uber CEO emphasized that autonomous vehicles must adhere to far stricter safety protocols than human drivers, given the public’s lower tolerance for machine errors. “There should be much less permissiveness for self-driving cars to make fatal mistakes compared to fallible human drivers,” he stated, highlighting a societal expectation for near-perfection in AI-driven systems.

Raising the Bar on Autonomous Safety

This stance reflects broader industry debates on how to measure the reliability of self-driving cars. According to Khosrowshahi, while humans are prone to distractions and errors—contributing to thousands of road fatalities annually—autonomous systems cannot afford similar lapses. Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration supports this, showing human error in over 90% of accidents, yet public scrutiny intensifies when technology falters, as seen in past incidents involving Uber’s own testing programs.

Khosrowshahi’s call for “superhuman” safety standards aligns with ongoing regulatory discussions. In a separate piece from Business Insider, he noted that autonomous vehicles will gradually integrate into Uber’s operations, ensuring they outperform human drivers in consistency and risk mitigation.

Timeline for an Autonomous Future

Looking ahead, the CEO projected a 20-year horizon for widespread autonomy, driven by technological leaps and economies of scale. He referenced collaborations like Uber’s deal with Waymo, where self-driving cars in cities such as Phoenix and San Francisco are already completing more trips per day than most human drivers, as detailed in another Business Insider report. This productivity edge could reshape ride-hailing economics, potentially lowering costs and expanding access.

However, challenges remain, including urban infrastructure adaptations and public trust. Khosrowshahi acknowledged in comments reported by PYMNTS.com that full replacement of human drivers might take 15 to 20 years, with interim periods requiring hybrid fleets to handle peak demands.

Implications for Drivers and the Economy

The shift to autonomy raises questions about job displacement for Uber’s millions of drivers worldwide. In a Business Insider article from September, Khosrowshahi described this as “a real issue,” predicting that while demand for human labor persists in the near term, governments and companies must prepare for transitions through retraining programs.

Economically, autonomous fleets could mirror real estate investment trusts, as Khosrowshahi suggested in yet another Business Insider piece, allowing scalable ownership models that optimize vehicle utilization and reduce idle time.

Navigating Regulatory and Technological Hurdles

Regulatory approval remains a key barrier, with agencies demanding rigorous safety data. Khosrowshahi praised Waymo’s approach, combining cameras, lidar, and radar for enhanced perception, contrasting it with camera-only systems like Tesla’s, as noted in posts on X (formerly Twitter) and covered by outlets like The Register. He argued this multi-sensor strategy ensures “superhuman” safety, essential for scaling.

Despite optimism, skeptics point to setbacks, such as Uber’s 2018 fatal accident that halted its testing. Yet, with investments pouring in—Uber is committing billions to AV tech—Khosrowshahi envisions a future where autonomy not only enhances safety but transforms mobility, making roads safer and more efficient for all. As the industry pushes forward, balancing innovation with accountability will determine how quickly this vision materializes.