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Global PC shipments are on track to reach 274 million units in 2009, a 6 percent decrease from 2008 shipments of 292 million, according to Gartner.

Despite the overall decline, Gartner now expects the PC market to post positive growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, setting the stage for a solid market recovery in 2010 with a forecast of growth of 10.3 percent.

George Shiffler III

"PC unit growth was stronger than we expected in all markets but Eastern Europe in the first quarter of 2009. In particular, consumer shipments were much stronger than we anticipated," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner.

"However, professional shipments continued to struggle, and we think much of the growth in consumer units was due to vendors and the channel restocking inventories rather than an upsurge in demand. We expect units to contract roughly 10 percent year over year in both second and third quarter 2009 before they post positive growth in the fourth quarter."

Mini-notebooks continued to cushion the market's decline in the first quarter of 2009. Units remain on pace to reach 21 million this year and 30 million next year.

Mobile-PC units are forecast total 149 million units in 2009, a 4.1 percent increase over 2008, but spending on mobile PCs is expected to decline 12,8 percent as the mobile -PC average selling prices continue to fall.

"Both mobile-PC and desk-based PC units are being held back by users extending PC lifetimes and delaying replacements in response to the ongoing economic slowdown," Mr. Shiffler said.

"The good news for the industry is that delayed replacements won't be lost replacements. Our research indicates replacements should grow strongly in 2010 and 2011, helping to power the market's recovery."