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Like eating fruits and vegetables or building lighter cars, open-source technology seemed like the sort of good idea that would always go ignored.  But according to Gartner, elements of open-source technology will be present in 80 percent of all commercial software by the year 2012.

Gartner's analysts seem to feel that open source is just too good a thing to pass up.  "Many open-source technologies are mature, stable and well supported," they noted in a list of IT predictions.  "They provide significant opportunities for vendors and users to lower their total cost of ownership and increase returns on investment.  Ignoring this will put companies at a serious competitive disadvantage."

We've already seen a few large corporations take a few small steps - Facebook, Google, and Microsoft recently joined DataPortability.org, for example.  And as time goes by, more of these little developments could take place, until a sort of snowball effect (born out of a desire to avoid that "serious competitive disadvantage") occurs.

Or not - Gartner could be wrong.  But the company indicated that, on the subject of open-source technology, it might actually be underestimating growth, writing, "Embedded open source strategies will become the minimal level of investment that most large software vendors will find necessary to maintain competitive advantages during the next five years."

Now if we could just get oranges and carbon fiber to become as cost-effective as ramen noodles and steel.