Technology will advance so far for local advertising that when voice and data truly combine on mobile phones, the usage of venerable yellow page directories to find businesses will be near zero for anyone under 50.
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| Bill Gates Predicts End Of Yellow Pages |
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That might be news to publishers who drop hefty books full of business listings at doorsteps all over the country each year. Microsoft's chairman Bill Gates, speaking at the company's Strategic Advertising Summit, told attendees the age of the print directory has been numbered.
During his address, which took place with corporate VP and chief media officer Joanne Bradford on stage, Gates gave the example of calling for movie listings as an example of how information delivery could be better when voice/screen interaction improves.
When this happens, it should have implications in the local advertising market, Bradford observed. After that, the big change will come to the yellow page market. Gates explained to the audience:
Well, the Yellow Pages are going to be used less and less. We should be able, when you go to the service that's going to take our technology and the Tellme technology that we acquired, when you say something like plumber, the presentation you'll get will be far better than what you get in the Yellow Pages. After all, we know your location, and so we can cluster around that. We can take the information and show you the names, and then you can expand the information easily. So, yes, I think that these things always take time, but Yellow Page usage amongst people in their, say, below 50, will drop to zero, near zero over the next five years.
The ability to find local listings on mobile devices will have to become nearly as simple as flipping through a book. Once someone like Microsoft accomplishes that, more local businesses should embrace local online advertising.
Given Microsoft's colorful history with regards to competitors, we have to wonder if the company thinks they have to win the mobile operating system market to succeed in local search. Microsoft may have to play nice with global handset leader Nokia to gain critical mass on the mobile platform.
With Google, AOL, Yahoo, and Ask all in the mix on mobiles, no one is going to just let Microsoft walk off with all the local ad goodies.
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Comments
So let me get this
So let me get this straight. A pipe breaks in the bathroom and while it is pumping 7 gallons a minute unto the floor, you just fire up your google and start looking for a plumber. Your son cuts his finger to the bone. You lock yourself out of the car. You just broke a tooth off. Its raining and the roof is leaking. Fire up the old reliable dell. Maybe when they actually get the computer to be a speedy reliable tool.
yellow pages
Yellow pages dying-Thats a laugh. They aren't dying, they are expanding. Who do you think is selling the small business owner IYP, pay-per-click and streaming video? Yellowpages.com the largest and Yellowbook.com in the top 5 of fastest growing websites. Twenty years ago yellow page usage was at 84%, today at 61% - Try and find a Radio station, TV station or newspaper that can match these numbers. Until the web experience becomes lightning fast & reliable no one is going to fire up the computer when the house is flooding to call a plumber. Five years, doubtful, but when it does happen the major Yellow page companies are still going to be the major players. To the guy who says that Yellow page leads cost him 185.00 per lead, your nutz!! The average Yellow page display ad returns 12 times your investment and depending on type of business can swell to 50 times your investment. The internet on the other hand can get you clicks all day long but actual sales lag miles behind Yellow pages with all categories except retail e-commerce sites. I have a internet program getting 1100 clicks per month for my service business. Last month I got 2 calls, no jobs. Last month on a metered line in the yellow pages I got 98 calls, 61 of them turned into jobs. The biggest drawback to yellow pages is the customer is only looking at your ad when he or she is ready to buy. Thats a problem i can live with.
Gates VS. Yellow Pages
Not in 5 years. The bigger issue is what's happening to all types of print media, those that exist only for the sake of ad revenues they can attract. He is right, but right in the largest sense. In the next 5 years, there may only be one book around, the one that can buy the most of the smaller, more regional books, a phenomenon occuring now for years. In 10 years, printed Yellow Pages will look more like the blue pages, and folks will likely be uploading answers onto their televisions. Hand-held computers/PDA's are still frustrating (size), and voice technology won't be ready in five years to handle a volume of searches satisfied by print-media presently. Very interesting stuff, though. Every time I read an article like this telling me that the "geniuses" are thinking like I am, it does cause me to spend differently--creating, of subjects like this, self-fulfilling prophecy
Yellow pages focus on small
Yellow pages focus on small to medium sized businesses. The VAST majority of which don't even have a website today, much less highly interactive mobile content...it will happen eventually, but not in 5 years...maybe 15.
Speeding Up the Phase Out
Sites like www.workpost.com will help to speed up the demise of the yellow pages! Instead of having to pick up a book or flip through a directory, you can just post what you need done and let interested contractors contact you. It's more efficient and easier to accomplish work in this manner.
You're an Idiot!
What a ridiculous comment! Most YP references are for something that's needed immediately. Ex Auto Repair, Leaky Toilet, Furnace not Working. Do you honestly believe that someone with no heat in the middle of winter wants to sit around and wait from some jackass to check job posts at 2am instead of a phone call?
Different purposes
Phone and posting online are useful ways to find help and serve different purposes.
Sometimes you need help fast but what makes you think a contractor is going to even take your calls or give a damn about your problems at 2am? All I know is that when my pipes froze a few years ago, there wasn't damn plumber available who would help and no service, no yellow pages or anything else could have helped me. It was a bad time and the few guys I found didn't want to leave their holiday cheer to deal with my mess. Was there someone out there who could help me? I don't know because I couldn't find them.
Making random, desperate phone calls is also good way to get yourself a bad contractor who can easily take advantage of you.
Some people like to know about the companies they are going to hire + plan ahead a little and that's why services like Craigslist, Yelp, Workpost, Angies List, Kudzu are useful. Phone books are nice but this is 200X, we have cell phones, GPS, Google Maps and I hope the future is going offer people something better.
Bill is Crazy
WOW, proudly spoken by someone who wants to sell you more tech that doesnt quite work. This is an idiotic claim by Bill. After all these years they still havent gotten windows to work quite right, how are they going to get this to work in five years and also put yellow pages out of business in that time frame.
Even if the claim is true, people over 50 will still be using yellow pages and the majority of our population in the next five to ten years is baby boomers. That alone, based off his claim will make yellow pages even more profitable and the businesses who advertise in them.
Now, take it from someone that works for print yellow pages, LOCAL INTERNET SEARCH ADVERTISING is to expensive for small to medium business. How do I know, our company sells pay per click advertising. Does it work, yep it works, drives business right to there website. How many phone calls do they get, not many. Nowhere near what they get from print yellow pages. The cost per lead from print yellow pages is a fraction of what the internet advertising is.
Yellow pages isnt sexy, but it works like no other. It is still and will be for a very long time the best investment for the small to medium local business owners, period.
Not true
You're fooling yourself my friend. We track call out of yellow pages and off the internet. Cost per lead for us is $185 per call on yellow pages and $12 per call off the Internet with about the same volume of calls and much better conversion. Instead of spending $8000 a month on Yellow pages next year I will be spending $254 per month and focusing on other methods to generate leads.
Bill's Not so "Crazy"
Whilst Bill Gates may be trying to take over another hi-tech service, I believe he is on to something.
Check out PensacolaBusinesses.com, a locally owned/operated directory. The YellowPages has NOTHING on these guys. They have superb search engine results, links to websites, email, television commercials, radio commercials, galleries of pictures for literally about a tenth of what it costs in the "traditional" directories. I use them in my business and for my personal use. I've not found ANY directory that does what they do for the price and quality. Take it from a business owner that isn't paying out the nose but IS seeing results - results I never had with the paper directory. It, like the encyclopedia, is on the way out the door.
The world is going (has been going) hi-tech for years and it's only getting larger. The average family has 3 computers (desk top, laptop and some form of internet ready mobile device). Wifi everywhere. Cellphones liteally everywhere. Businesses are going "green" and "earth-friendly" and therefore moving toward a paperless era.
It will take time but you can be sure Bill Gates will throw his money where he put his mouth. He's been fairly successful thus far.
Future of Yellowpages
Bill is absolutely correct, the yellowpages directory will be a thing of the past, as we know it today. Our site is free and we're offering to create a directory by co-op with the local advertisers. They will create and distribute their own local directory.The truth is the future of current yellowpage companies is bleak.
Re: The Future of Yellow Pages
Ironically, this is why the major Yellow Pages companies are leading LOCAL search through their "On-Line" entities. The best of them being Yellowpages.com (A little company called AT&T is behind it). COMScore has them at the 30th most searched web site across the Internet. That puts them ahead of numerous household names on the web. They must know something, because they seem to be ahead of the curve.
Shockingly Un-Shocking
Don't we hear this line every time a media company is trying to sell more of its mobile technology?
The printed Yellow Page industry is a 16 billion dollar cash cow that has been told its "days are numbered" since the late 90's. Despite the technological naysayers, the industry has a projected increase in revenues albeit slight. While usage of print Yellow Pages is expected to slowly trail off, forecats of usage remain well above the 50% mark.
Remember that according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,(OECD) only 19.6% of Americans have broadband access and 30% of the US population do not own cell phones. (www.bridgeratings.com)
Premature autopsy for the Yellow Pages
Look out, the Yellow Page guys are moving into Search Engine Marketing with speed and stealth.
They no longer just offer online versions of their print directories, but are packaging mini websites, preferred placement, pay per click and pay per call into bundles that the average small to medium business can understand and afford. And it's sold to them by someone they know and are used to doing business with.
As mobile search grows, so will their participation. For them, it's a matter of survival and they know it. So, don't count them out too soon.
Bil?
Just wondering if it's a typo or intentional to leave off one "L" in Bill Gates' name in the title.
I must have been channeling
I must have been channeling 'Family Circus' at the time.
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