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Billionare blogger/Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban warns podcasters that they're likely to find themselves on the same trash heap of history that contains early streaming audio efforts like those created for pseudo.com, broadcast.com, eyada.com, and others that have faded from memory.

"Creating your own podcast and trying to make a business out of it is a mistake."

Link: Mark Cuban post

Cuban's comments echo those of several others who are dismissing podcasting as a fad. Of course, their opinions fly in the face of research conducted by companies like The Diffusion Group, a digital media entertaining research firm that predicts the US podcast audience will grow from its current 840,000 listeners to 60 million by 2010. While Diffusion attributes much of the growth to the entrance of mainstream media into podcasting, I've always believed in the hackneyed cliche that suggests a rising tide raises all boats. The availability of PBS, ABC, CBS and other programming as podcasts won't edge out those of the so-called "indie" or "pirate" podcasters (like Neville and me); it will only increase awareness of the fact that such programs exist.

While we "amateur" podcasters may never attract the audience of a mainstream personality, neither are we looking for those kinds of numbers. Podcasting provides the big boys with the ability to give audiences content they can listen to at their convenience, but it also provides very narrowcasted audiences-like public relations practitioners seeking commentary about online communication-with content they're simply never going to get from the big media players. Besides, podcasting isn't radio, and there are a lot of people out there seeking an alternative to the corporate-programmed crap that spews forth from the airwaves. Getting that same garbage on their digital media players won't be all that appealing to these folks. In other words, there's plenty of room in the podosphere (oh, God, is that going to become a word?) for both types of podcasts.

Cuban suggests podcasters can't make a living from their work, but I suspect the host of Endurance Radio would shrug off such a proclamation. With a paltry audience of hard-core, dedicated endurance sports enthusiasts, Endurance Radio has attracted the likes of Gatorade and Fleet Sports to pay $4,000 a month to sponsor the show. The audience may not be large, but it's hard for an advertiser to find so concentrated a group of its target market.

Ultimately, of course, time will tell. But I'm putting my money on a big future for podcasting.

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Shel Holtz is principal of Holtz Communication + Technology which focuses on helping organizations apply online communication capabilities to their strategic organizational communications.

As a professional communicator, Shel also writes the blog a shel of my former self.